LO8 - Strategy Question

[1MoreFish4U]

What approaches do you use when playing full ring, and nearly all hands are raised preflop, usually 3 beat & often capped.

Generally 4 - 5 players seeing the flop with any 4, & a couple that will invariably play second rate holdings to showdown.

For anyone automatically assuming this is an ideal situation, the end result is that you can never put a player on a hand range, and every backdoor possibility is a live one for these guys.

Table average VPIP is usually 45-55%. The resident maniacs are often 60-40 or so, with some players VPIP in the 80-100% range.

All suggestions much appreciated.

[Borys313]

Take a solid TAG aproach. Fold preflop all borderline hand as A49T, focus exclusivly on playing premium starters and big rundowns. Dont try to isolate with bad aces like AA69 they will never hold up just muck them.

On flop try to play for clinches, even if this would mean going for the ruuner runner. For example if the board comes KJ2 wich one heart and you have A3xx hearts you have to keep drawing the odds will be always there after it got 4 bet multiway preflop. Of course the great flops will play themself.

Not much more you can do. If the pot is decided 100% of time in showdown there is no poker to it, just math.

[howzit]

[ QUOTE ]

Not much more you can do. If the pot is decided 100% of time in showdown there is no poker to it, just math.

[/ QUOTE ]

nice.

this is why i can't beat low limit games when i've been drinking.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
On flop try to play for clinches, even if this would mean going for the ruuner runner. For example if the board comes KJ2 with one heart and you have A3xx hearts you have to keep drawing the odds will be always there after it got 4 bet multiway preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]Hi Borys – Not true. The odds not only won’t always be there, the odds won’t even usually be there.

With five opponents continuing all the way to the showdown even when they have nothing, and if there is one small bet going into the pot on the second and third betting rounds, and two small bets going into the pot on the fourth betting round, you do win a total of 48 small bets when you make the flush and win with it. And 38 small bets (I think) is your break even point under these circumstances. Thus if your opponents are all completely stupid, you do have favorable odds to continue with no more raises after the first betting round.

However, your opponents are not all completely stupid. (Probably none of them are completely stupid).

They won’t all play badly enough to chase to the showdown when they have nothing on the flop, still nothing much on the turn, and a losing hand on the river. (Probably none of them will play that badly).

Worse (for Hero), there will likely be some raising on the turn.

With an ideal backdoor flush draw hand, you will only make a back-door flush one time out of 22. And then with four opponents seeing the flop and playing reasonably well, you lose to a full house or quads about one time out of five.

Each of your opponents will have less than two pairs after the turn roughly 1/2 of the time. And assuming they each at least have the good sense to fold after the turn with less than two pairs, there will only be an average of 2 bets going into the pot from opponents on the third betting round, and probably less on the fourth betting round.

Here’s the math for the average of 2 bets on the turn:
First some tabulating:
(each digit making up each four digit number is for one of the four opponents. 1 means two pairs or better on the turn, 0 means less than two pairs or better on the turn)
<ul type="square">0000
-
0001
0010
0100
1000
-
0011
0101
1001
0110
1010
1100
-
1110
1101
1011
0111
-
1111

1/16 there is no bet on the 3rd betting round
4/16 Hero has only one opponent on the 3rd betting round
6/16 Hero has only two opponents on the 3rd betting round
4/16 Hero has only three opponents on the 3rd betting round
1/16 Hero has all four opponents on the 3rd betting round.

1/16*0+4/16*1+6/16*2+4/16*3+1/16*4=
0+0.25+0.75+0.75+0.25=2[/list]Thus Hero should expect an average of 2 opponents contributing to the pot on the third betting round. (Looking that over now, I can see an easier way to get to the same place. Oh well.)

With 20 bets in the pot from four opponents plus Hero (four small bets each) from the first betting round, 4 small bets from opponents on the second betting round, an average of 2 big bets from opponents on the third betting round, and 2 double big bets from 2 opponents when Hero makes a flush and wins, starting from after a
K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img],J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img],2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] flop, when Hero holds A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img],3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img],8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img],9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (and thus has more or less completely missed a fit with this flop), Hero only wins 36 small bets when he wins. That’s figuring it very, very optimistically for Hero.

It’s simply not enough to draw for a back-door flush alone, not even when the betting is capped before the flop with four opponents and with nobody raising after the flop.

The backdoor nut low draw adds enough to Hero’s prospects to make continuing after this flop worthwhile – but only if there is no more raising until Hero makes a winner on the river (and if Hero gets paid off by two opponents when he scoops).

That scenario is not impossible, but it is unlikely.

In my humble opinion, Hero should fold to a bet unless all three of the following conditions are met <ul type="square">(1) Hero is on the button or last to act,
(2) the player in first position bets, and
(3) nobody raises on the second betting round after the flop is KJ2 with one heart and Hero has A3xx with hearts.[/list]The danger of a raise or check-raise from someone in this volatile group is simply too great.

And even when all these conditions are met on the second betting round, a jamming contest can easily erupt on the third betting round.

In my humble opinion, back-door draws simply miss too often and don’t pay off well enough when they don’t miss to generally be worthwhile pursuing in a limit game, even when the betting is capped five ways before the flop, and even when Hero has both a back-door flush draw and a back-door low draw. There probably are some exceptions.

[ QUOTE ]
focus exclusivly on playing premium starters and big rundowns.

[/ QUOTE ]I don’t want to quibble here, and certainly not about semantics, but I’m not sure I quite agree with you here either. However, first your understanding and usage of “premium” may not be the same as mine.

And second, I have some issues regarding playing most of the big rundowns here. Hero, if playing a rainbow run-down, is only going to flop two or three cards in the run-down range (or flop a straight) about 14% of the time. And then for most of those, he’s far from home free. There are ~16% more additional playable flops that are playable in a passive game, but that hardly applies here, and these additional flop fits are flimsier, mostly with one card in the run-down range and one other abutting the run-down range.

At any rate, I generally don’t want to play those big rundown hands for more than one bet before the flop - and I certainly don’t want to play any of them for four bets. (There probably are some exceptions).

Buzz

[Truthiness24]

I play in a game like this too, 15/30 LO8, once a week. It feels really juicy and it seems like I should win all the time. I have a healthy positive result long term, but short term it's really volatile.

In my game there is lots of limping and only one maniac, so I have the advantage of (usually) being able to control pot size, especially when I can sit to the left of the maniac. I am generally playing premium hands and betting/raising on any street I play. This seems mathematically correct because over the long term I will have better holdings than they will.

Generally, the flop has to fit you perfectly: if you PFR and get 6 callers, you are going to get run down a lot more than you're going to like. But the pots are HUUUUUUGE.

One problem that I have also had in this game is that people are on to me as having more game than they do. I am a "pro" to their worldview because they know I go to WSOP and other events. (I am sure that this is laughable and ironic to a lot of you.) As a result, I don't get much action postflop except from the absolute worst players. These players whom we think of as terrible still want to see every flop, but they seem to have the sense to lay it down when they don't catch.

I have adjusted by showing hands like 23xx, A4xx, and QQxx occasionally after a PFR for advertising. Anyone who is adjusting enough to lay down hands postflop will notice this, re-adjust, and open back up, at least a bit.

The c-bet is useless when you don't catch.

I have another problem in that I get frustrated when I get hosed. Example: last week I had A477 and flopped 755. We had a capped flop and the turn came Q and the river 9. A guy turns over QQT7 to scoop. This guy called 3 bets cold PF and 4 bets on the flop to hit a 2 outer. You want to play with these guys, but it is really hard to be patient.

Buzz is right: winning at this game is all math, no poker. The skills you learned here at 2p2 and in your mid- and high-limit ring games online are of little use. But it is easy to beat if you avoid frustration and take the longview, which sometimes gets hard to do.

[Truthiness24]

I'm not sure I agree with Buzz about not playing the "big rundown" hands. I think that, in this kind of game, from time to time, when there's close to enough money in the pot, you have to make a junky call so as to hit, turn it over, and laugh about running the guy down. You will eventually need to have and exploit this image.

I think that the worst thing that can happen is that you play in this loose, juicy game and it is loose and juicy for everyone except you. You need to make it look like you're winning because you're lucky.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Buzz is right: winning at this game is all math, no poker.

[/ QUOTE ]Truthiness - Thanks. And I wish I had written it. However, Borys deserves the credit for that remark.

[ QUOTE ]
if you avoid frustration

[/ QUOTE ]Alas, there seems no way (at least for me) to avoid frustration. If that is true, then I think the key is managing frustration when it occurs.

Buzz

[Borys313]

[ QUOTE ]

I have another problem in that I get frustrated when I get hosed. Example: last week I had A477 and flopped 755. We had a capped flop and the turn came Q and the river 9. A guy turns over QQT7 to scoop. This guy called 3 bets cold PF and 4 bets on the flop to hit a 2 outer. You want to play with these guys, but it is really hard to be patient.

Buzz is right: winning at this game is all math, no poker. The skills you learned here at 2p2 and in your mid- and high-limit ring games online are of little use. But it is easy to beat if you avoid frustration and take the longview, which sometimes gets hard to do.

[/ QUOTE ]

No doubt QQT7 isnt a decent hand but actually I believe yours a477 whas even worse.

I made a small experiment with cardplayer calculator nad entered 3 hands, 2 of them i what I comsider premiums (AK32 and AJJ%)and the 3rd one was yours and your opponents to see how they rate.

Here are the equities

AK32 - 0.407
AJJ5 - 0.405
A774 - 0.188

And next set

AK32 - 0.504
AJJ5 - 0.264
QQT7 - 0.232

So actually QQT7 rates to score better against premiums then yours A477. So if we call QQT7 hopeless hand then what to say about yours??

Of course on flop this guy was on a suicide mission, but the point is when you start a story i was there in a 3-bet pot with A477 and then got really unlucky you miss the the thing that your hand was bad and you get very lucky by catching a miracle flop, but in the long run you will lose money with it.

A477 is so bad bacuse it had almost no chance for low and to get the high you gotta hit the set, and omaha 8b is not a game where you should setmine.

[Truthiness24]

This gives me something to think about. I appreciate that.

In general, my game plan in that kind of game is to play hands hat are better that what I think my opponents will have. I define "premium" hands in this context not by what is best against all 5300 or so possible hands but against what I think my opponents have. I see now that this may be wrong, but that is what I'm thinking.

In this hand, QQT7 was in EP, the game maniac limped, and I raised PF with that hand. In my view, A477 was sufficiently likely to be better than what anyone else had PF.

And it was: no one showed a better low draw. Usually you would be right. I would almost never play A477 in a game of competent players, but in that context it felt right.

I'd like to see how A477 fares against QQT7 and 2 random hands. I don't have the time now to run it but if someone else does before I get to it that's great.

I'd like to know if anyone else thinks that this is a suboptimal solution and why. Thx

[Buzz]

1MoreFish4U – This is a “good” game, in that you should expect to make a profit.

However, at the same time, it’s not a game I would enjoy much.

Profitable? Yes.
Enjoyable? No.

The essence of the game to me involves figuring out what my opponents are thinking while putting them on cards. But that is nigh onto impossible with someone who is wildly throwing money into the pot and playing all sorts of hands.

My approach to wild melee pre-flop games is to not alter my starting hand selection very much, except to be less prone to play hands that are not likely to get a flop fit. It’s still important to recognize after the flop what is a good flop fit and what isn’t.

For example, in a less aggressive pre-flop game, I like to play hands that might be long-shots, but that pay off well when they hit, hands that have suited aces and mediocre low cards, for example hands like
A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img],9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img],5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. That’s not a very good starting hand, because usually you have to give up after the flop, but with a lot of opponents seeing the flop for one bet, you can get a pretty good pay off with the right flops, and in these loose games you want to play as many hands as possible to disguise your better hands somewhat. But I’m probably not playing that hand much in a game where I expect a wild melee before the flop.

Are there any starting hands I am going to play in this wild melee game that I wouldn’t play ordinarily? Well... to tell the truth, I can’t think of any. I guess the overall effect is, rightly or wrongly, I play a bit tighter before the flop in these pre-flop gambling games.

But however I modify my approach is not necessarily what you should do. To begin with, I probably already am playing a whole lot looser than you. (I play in casinos and that’s different from on-line play).

The following applies whether there is pre-flop raising or not:
<ul type="square">After the flop I either have a fit or I bluff. In order for me to bluff, I have to believe the bluff has a reasonable chance of success. Usually (in most games) flop bluffs are unsuccessful. Thus usually I need a good flop fit to continue past the flop.

A good flop fit means various things to me, but in general means I either can use all three flop cards to make what I think has a good chance of ending up the winning five card hand, or I just need one of a sufficient number of turn cards to make a winning hand. How many turn cards (outs) are sufficient depends on the situation.

At any rate, most of the time, I’ll be drawing after the flop, needing only one of a number of cards on the turn to make what I think has a good chance to be the winning hand. I might bet the draw or not, depending primarily on how many opponents I expect to call.[/list]Buzz