25nl: AK TPTK, raised on turn, baluga?

[seat_empty]

Villain is 26/8.5/2.71 over 70 hands. No real reads beyond his stats. With no completed draws out there, do i have to put him squarely on a set?


Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $25.25
<font color="black">BB: $24.90</font>
<font color="black">Hero (UTG): $49.25</font>
CO: $16.00
BTN: $27.55

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt K A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $1.00</font>, 3 folds, BB calls $0.75

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($2.10) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 A (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $1.75</font>, BB calls $1.75

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($5.60) 4 (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $4.25</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $12.00</font>, Hero ??

[IAGTTAYM]

The pot is 22, villain has about 10 left. So, given he never folds to a shove, you need about 36% to make a shove ok. So what could he have? He prolly reraises AA-JJ and AK. If we can eliminate that from his range, he prolly has some kind of flush draw with a gutshot, two pair,Ax or 77. If we give villain a fairly tight range of (77,AQs-ATs,A7s,A4s,QcTc,JcTc,AQo-ATo), we have 57% equity. So, unless BB is a total nit, I don't think we can fold this ever with a 100bb(effective)stack.

[seat_empty]

so baluga doesn't really apply here? i was operating under the assumption that without a specific read, a turn check-raise generally means a made hand.

I would also find it kinda strange that he'd wait till the turn to checkraise with a combo draw, wouldn't he tend to do this more on the flop when he's still got 2 cards coming?

[BevillTheDevil]

against this type of player i think i can find a fold, could be playin a FD really weird but i think its alot more likely he/she has 2 pair+ here most the time, could maybe do this w/ AQ maybe AT???? but most likely not

[skoldpadda]

I think you can fold here. You're either nearly drawing dead or BB is completely FOS. What's your read?

[seat_empty]

well, my read was that he had a set so i folded.

i posted this cause i'm on 25k hand break-even stretch (actually slightly down).. so i'm trying to post hands to figure out where i'm losing money :\

[Jariso13]

I think the fold was definitely correct. The best possible scenario that I could see would be him having AK. Any other hand in his range would beat you or be a complete bluff.