Over bet on turn, thoughts?

[JustChillin]

First 2+2 post, correct if needed…

$10+1 Sit N Go

No converter for Bodog. Table is conservative, no read on Villian, I translate his move as a very typical weak move, but I’d like opinions. I should be seen as very TAG. Please consider BB and how many people are left.

BB = 100

UTG (985)
UTG+1 (785)
Hero (1080)
MP1 (1005)
MP2 (970)
CO (675)
Button (990)
SB (1970)
BB (1540)

Preflop: Hero is in UTG+2 with JJ
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to 300, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls 250, BB folds, UTG calls

Flop: (1000) 8d As 9c
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: (1000) Ah
SB bets 1670 (All-in), UTG folds, Hero…….?

My thoughts,

Preflop: I’m thinking I would love action with my JJ, only picking up the blinds + 1 here seems insignificant, seeing how blinds are huge with this many people left. I think raising 4xBB might kill the action ( though that’s not much more) and waste a potential double up hand. Seeing the BB chip stack makes me believe his calling range is worth getting action, as well as the UTG which I already put on QJs, KQ, A10s, and 66-88 maybe (I realize it’s a stupid move but that’s typical at these levels).

Flop: This is my reasoning. If SB had A10-AQ, which seems like the most reasonable hands to have here (I think AK would have/should have gone All-in preflop, but who knows), he should check this flop with the intention of calling my potential All-in, which I feel I might be obligated to make despite the flop, b/c I’m the aggressor w/ 7BB left in front of me, plus if he had that range of hands how likely would he be here to fold to my All-in? I’ll assume my read on UTG is still correct and I don’t see a feel out raise to be of any use to me seeing as how it would cost me way too much and leave me w/ nothing against a reraise All-in which I don’t see how I could call. My All-in will either take the pot or take me out, even though w/ 7BB left I could make a come back, but that’s a crap shoot.

Turn: My instincts scream at me after seeing the SB go All-in, that I have the best hand. I don’t see why you would bet here if u don’t want a call, which I can’t imagine he would want as seeing how I checked the flop. I assume this to be a terrible steal, anyone agree?

[taipan168]

Welcome to the forums!

With just over 10x BB and in bad position, I just get it all in preflop. You will get called with A-rag or a lower pocket pair often enough to compensate for the times you run into QQ-AA. If you just take the blinds, no problem.

As played, I would push the flop after 2 checks. There is 1000 in the pot and you have 780 behind. As you played the flop, I call on the turn, once the 2nd A comes it is much less likely than opp has an A and low buyin players love to slowplay their big hands.

Also, I think you may be overthinking for the $11s. Don't worry about your table image, 95% of your opps are not paying attention to anything but their own cards.

[aujoz]

push preflop

push flop.

avoid turn problem.

[Pudge714]

[ QUOTE ]
push preflop

push flop.

avoid turn problem.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pushing the flop is awful. C/C all in is better than pushing the flop IMO.

[aujoz]

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing the flop is awful. C/C all in is better than pushing the flop IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

huh? am I right in reading this as saying that you'd prefer to check/call the all-in on the turn than pushing on the flop?

that makes no sense to me. if you push, you have fold equity. if you call, you don't. if you're willing to go all-in, you may as well be the aggressor rather than the responder.


in addition, there may be a small chance that someone might fold a small ace on the flop to an all-in.

[Pudge714]

C/C the flop all in is better than open pushing.
An ace is not folding the flop here and you will rarely see KK,QQ here. Pushing here you are getting almost all better hands to call and all worse hands to fold, by check calling you at least have the possibiliy of another hand bluffing all into you.

[Jay Riall]

[ QUOTE ]
C/C the flop all in is better than open pushing.
An ace is not folding the flop here and you will rarely see KK,QQ here. Pushing here you are getting almost all better hands to call and all worse hands to fold, by check calling you at least have the possibiliy of another hand bluffing all into you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I'm check-calling the here aswell. I would not be in this situation though because I would have pushed preflop. Pudge - How do you play this with say 1400 chips?

[JustChillin]

Ya the only reason i dont push preflop is that i want action, which might include 55-77, A9s, A10 reraising me all in and isolating (the same hands that would be likely to fold to my huge over bet preflop), OR my original plan which was to atleast squeeze out another 200 from the UTG limper, whom must call my raise. I do realize this is a gamble w/ the possibility of a K / Q popping up on the flop and getting pushed into, but at this point in the tournament ill take it.

Going back to pushing preflop, if i take it w/ out contention (which i strongly feel i would have), my stack is still only 13BB, w/ the blinds approaching and going up still. As you guys know w/ 9 peep left and every1 averaging 10BB, this thing will turn into a crap shoot. If i double up to 22BB, i have options to steal the huge blinds, make a 50/50 decision against almost any remaining stacks, and im less likely to get pushed into when in BB situations.

I do agree my flop play was bad, i should have pushed and took the gamble (i do agree any A calls me on flop though)

Also, no comments on the SB steal on the turn? No1 else agrees this is obvious and should be called?

[Jay Riall]

Only hands I'm playing that I'm not pushing are AA/KK, though I may push KK if I think its likely I will get called. The reason we push JJ here is the fact that its very difficult to play if an overcard flops with such a short stack. Also your unlikely to get payed off on the flop by any hand you beat, whereas if you get it allin preflop and are called you are likely to be a 70/30 favourite. I'm also not disappointed if I pick up the 250 in the middle here.

[SonnyJay]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: I’m thinking I would love action with my JJ, only picking up the blinds + 1 here seems insignificant, seeing how blinds are huge with this many people left.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Ya the only reason i dont push preflop is that i want action, which might include 55-77, A9s, A10 reraising me all in and isolating

[/ QUOTE ]
I would be a little careful with this thinking. As great as it is to get your JJ all in against 77, the downside of "getting action" is getting a few calls and an A flopping, as happened here. I would guess this happens more often than the all-in vs. an underpair. I don't hate your raise (though I'd be tempted to push), but definitely keep this in mind when you're reviewing your plays.

I actually don't mind the check/call here either. As others have mentioned, you're virtually guaranteed to be called by hands beating you and you're virtually never getting called by a worse hand if you simply open-push.

-SonnyJay