#1
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A neat formula for confidence intervals
If you want to know with a 95% confidence that your win rate lies between x- m.o.e and x + m.o.e , where x is your sample mean and m.o.e is your margin of error ,then use the following approximation formula :
Total number of games = (1/M.O.E)^2 So if your sample mean is 55 % and you're interested in the total number of games to determine if you're a winning player , then we would use a m.o.e of 2.5% since 52.5% is the break even point . This means that you would need to play (1/0.025)^2 = 1600 games to be 95 % certain . Here is another example : Suppose you've played 500 games and won x% of games but you want to be 95% confident that your win rate lies between x-m.o.e, x+m.o.e , then we would solve the equation . Total number of games = (1/m.o.e)^2 500=(1/m.o.e)^2 m.o.e=sqrt(1/500) m.o.e = 4.47 % So with 95% confidence , we know our confidence interval to be x - 4.47 , x + 4.47 . So if x =60% , then our interval is 55.53,64.47 . Pretty cool stuff . |
#2
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Re: A neat formula for confidence intervals
u da man!
So, the bigger winner you are, the less games you need to know your winrate, right? EDIT: No, wrong. |
#3
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Re: A neat formula for confidence intervals
Yes , this is certainly true but by a negligible amount .
You may want to check out this link and specifically the numbers given by roundhouse . http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...e=2#Post7912125 |
#4
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Re: A neat formula for confidence intervals
To be exact , you should use +-1.96*sqrt [p*(1-p)/n]
So for 500 games and a win % of 60%, then your exact margin of error for 95% confidence is +-1.96*sqrt(0.6*0.4/500)=+-4.294% Using the margin of error formula you get : Total number of games = (1/m.o.e)^2 500=(1/m.o.e)^2 m.o.e=sqrt(1/500) m.o.e = 4.47 % The derivation of the approximation formula is easy . Just replace 1.96 with 2 and notice that p*(1-p) =~1/2*1/2 . So we have M.O.E = +-1.96*sqrt(p*(1-p)/n) =~2*sqrt0.5*0.5/n)=~sqrt(1/n) solve for n = (1/M.O.E)^2 |
#5
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Re: A neat formula for confidence intervals
I like. Thx.
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