8/16 live, 98s

[aK13]

8/16 Bay 101 9 handed

I've been running kinda card dead and haven't made it to showdown in a long long time. UTG (Villain) here is, I dunno. Probably can classify him as a typical like 5/10 full ring player that is probably breakeven. Maybe slightly too loose, slightly too weak.

UTG open limps, I limp next 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] , 2 in LMP call, SB calls, BB checks his option.

6 to flop for 6SB: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
blinds check, UTG bets, I call, all fold.

2 to turn for 4BB: brick
UTG checks, I check.

2 to river for 4BB: brick
UTG checks, I...

[BigBadBabar]

bet. not sure if i'd raise the flop. prob not, given position. i prob would bet the turn if he checks to us.

[Xhad]

Bet turn, easily. On the turn it looks like a draw and if not you have a ton of outs. I started to say bet river but then I remembered this is B&M and the type of player described is unlikely to pay us off (we're winning most of the time but that's because he also flopped a draw).

[steakhouse]

Flop is fine, you don't want to get into a big pot HU against a pair of queens. I would bet the turn and against a bet I'd raise the turn for a free showdown.

[Xhad]

I don't see any merit in (hypothetically) raising the turn unless we think villain can fold JJ-TT. We're absolutely crushing any smaller pair, AK/AJ isn't so much of a concern because some of his pair "outs" are also hearts (unless he has the NFD), and we spew if he has TPTK/overpair/set and decides to 3bet it.

[steakhouse]

We're getting a free showdown when villain has TP, JJ-TT or 9 higher kicker? Isn't there some value in that? I think that hero shouldn't be afraid of getting 3-betted since then we know that a pair of nines is no good (and we can fold the river unimproved) and we still have plenty of outs.

We're definately not spewing chips if we get 3-betted. We just lost 1BB if we don't draw out and we win 1 more if we draw out (and getting 3-betted on the turn is much less likely than getting a free showdown).

In other terms - let's assume a scenario one where hero is against QJ (we're getting a free showdown from this hand for sure). We have 31.82% pot equity on the turn. So 68.18% of the time we're losing just as much bets as a calldown would lose and 31.82% we're winning 1BB more.

Let's assume that we're against Q7 and we're getting 3-betted on the turn. We have 25% equity and we're losing 1 more bet 75% of the time and winning 2 more bets when we draw out (Let's assume that we get 1 bet more on the river when we hit. We actually get to raise the river from time to time).

So in this simplified scenario we can see that if x is the propability of QJ and y is the propability of Q7 and x + y = 1 (so those are the only hands that villain can have) we're getting x(0,3182)+y(0,50-0,75) = 0,3182x - 0,25y.

So if x = 0,5 = y, in other words 2-pair and tp are both villains holdings 50% of the time we're still winning ~ 0.07BB with this play. Naturally we face tp more often than 2-pair.

Raising the turn is definately not spewing chips, but I think that infact it's the correct play.

[Bob T.]

I bet the turn. The board was full of draws, and UTG probably had one. He bet, and then he was called, and he probably didn't think that putting in bets with the worst hand was a good plan on the turn.

On this action, I definately bet the river. If I bet the turn, and get called, I most likely bet the river.

No matter what UTG holds, you probably are a favorite against his hand on the flop. I think that if you raise, and it gets headsup, (which it would have this time), you create extra equity for yourself, in the form of dead money. This time it didn't matter, because your call was scary enough for everyone to fold. You certainly have enough equity in this pot, that nothing bad can happen to you on the flop.

If you raise the flop, and aren't reraised, I probably just keep betting until the river, where I might take a free showdown. If you get reraised, you can reevalueate your situation.

[James.]

bet the turn for value. valuebet the river.

[Grease]

[ QUOTE ]
bet the turn for value. valuebet the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm glad I'm not the only person who thinks this. I thought I was in a twillight zone after reading some of the other responses. We have a decent hand and a great draw. Let's maximize our equity and bet.

I would also raise the flop, as DrModern said.

[terencetsao]

Also, can someone tell me why not raise the flop for a free card? is that bad?