Like the TMQ, all picks wrong or your money back!

[ensign_lee]

Hey y'all:

Football season's back upon us! Hurrah! Let's kick it off correctly!

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SageStats ensign_lee

For more detailed analysis of my picks, click the graph! (it will updated automatically as the games are played, so ignore the 0-0 for now. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img])

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Allrighty, on to the good stuff:

New Orleans Saints Moneyline (+223.44) @ Indianapolis Colts
1 unit at matchbook

The Saints only have to win this game once in every 3 times in order to make this bet +EV. And I happen to think they'll win at least half the time at Indianapolis.

Why? The loss of Tarik Glenn will have a much larger impact than I think people truly realize. As a Texans fan, I know just how much of a problem not having an elite LT or even a good LT is. Everything on the line stems from this position. Everything. Look for Addai to have to squeeze through smaller running lanes and for Peyton to have that split second less than he's accustomed to.

But more importantly than that even are the losses on defense for the Colts. They got rid of both starting corners and a starting LB that was the perfect system player or Dungy's defensive system. Moreover, the Colts are extremely low on depth at the DT position, which I think lots of people have forgotten about. Without the strong rush from up the middle, the Saints will be able to run the ball with Deuce McAllister all day, all the while spelling him with Bush from time to time. Bob Sanders is a good safety, but he can't be everywhere at once. If you look at the Colts defense in the playoffs, the elevated play of the defensive line was every bit as important to the success of the defense as Sander's return.

The Saints meanwhile suffered very few losses during the offseason and should come into this game hungry and happy to prove themselves on a national stage. +223> This moneyline should be at +175 to +180, tops.

Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 (-100.52) vs. Tennesseee Titans
3 units at matchbook / bettrojan

I got the line that I did with a little bit of scalping between bettrojan and matchbook. I originally took 5 units on JAX -6.5 (-105) at bettrojan and then scalped that out with two units of TEN +6.5 (+114) at matchbook. Factor in the vig should Tennessee cover and then it comes out to risking 3.01 units to win 3 units.

Jacksonville will turn Tennessee around every which way in this game. Tennesse's defense is entirely predicated on the secondary, but no team will pass on them when they can just run all over them. The Jacksonville offensive line will open up running lanes everywhere against this aging and insufficently talented Titans front 7. Think the JAC/IND game from last year. Actually, you can also think about the JAC/TEN game last year, where Jacksonville trounced them also.

On the other side of the ball, the Titans are in essence running the "10 offensive linemen and Vince Young" offense, which is just not going to cut it. Jacksonville has always been amazing at stopping the run. Look at their draft pick investment on the defensive line and their performance and you'll see that. All they'll have to do is stay at home and contain VY and life will take care of itself. The running backs for TEN scare no one and the receivers are either A) woefully inexperienced or B) Eric Moulds. While Moulds may have a little left in the tank, I doubt it will be sufficient to help lift the load off of the golden boy, VY.

Oakland Raiders -1 (-110) vs. Detroit Lions
1 unit at Skybook

I got the -1 from using the free half point to bring the line down from the -1.5 that was hanging earlier.

I know; I'm betting on the Raiders. WTF am I doing, right? :+clueless

But let's look at this game objectively. The Detroit lions QB Kitna was barely able to practice this presason, and certainly hasn't been in practice enough to have the chemistry with his receivers that is necessary for the regular season. Couple that with the fact that the Lions will either be starting A) an injured Jones or B) an inexperienced RB and you will see the lions struggle offensively. The Oakland Raiders defense only has to be barely above average to contain this offense.

Now, on the other side of the ball, the raiders will probably be starting QB Culpepper. While he was rushed back into service in Miami, he has been given time to heal now and has shown that he can still play in this league. In fact, all he has to do is not do the remarkably stupid things that prior Raiders QB have done and he should be allright. The Lions defense strikes fear in no one and I just don't think that they have the talent required to contain any offense.

Throw in home field advantage for the Raiders and the fact that AFC teams perform really well vs. NFC competition and this makes this bet even more attractive. I'd make this a 2 unit play, but that I don't want to come out of the gates for this season guns a blazing and shoot myself in the face; you know, since I'm betting on the Raiders and all.

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That's what I have so far. I will probably have a play on the UNDER in the Saints/Colts game, but am waiting for the line to climb up further before I place it.

Hope that helped some of y'all. Good luck everyone; go have fun! The season's about to start!

[Performify]

Welcome back, Ensign Lee, best of luck on the new season.

-P

[ensign_lee]

Thanks, performify. Glad that football is back. Baseball owned my face. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[ensign_lee]

Under 53 (-110)
2 units at JustBet

[NajdorfDefense]

You think NOS wins >50% of the time at Indy? I don't think any NFL team will have a winning road record vs winning NFL teams of playoff caliber.

You've also made the assumption that the new D players in Indy will be worse. It's one thing to assume Tarik Glenn's departure will hurt the O, but you can easily replace Cato June in the NFL.

[rsigley]

"I happen to think they'll win at least half the time at Indianapolis....This moneyline should be at +175 to +180, tops."

i'm confused if the saints win more than 50% of the time wouldn't the line be EVEN at the max?

why do you have the saints winning more than 20% of the time (+223 ~30%) than every book out there?

edit unless you knew joseph addai would get killed on the first play and injured, but even then...

[MacGuyV]

As others have said, it's crazy to think anybody would beat any of the top ~8 teams >50% on the road.

I like your picks though. No clue why so many people like the Lions - a notoriously awful road team & pass-happy coach w/ a turnover-prone QB and no running game on the road vs. a good defense. I mean how bad does the Raiders offense have to be for them to not be -3? OK they were really bad last year but still...

Also expecting Jax to flog Tennessee.

[NajdorfDefense]

3 quarters, 3 pts, 0 TDs.

Let's all remember if the Colts run D was so bad last year, they can have easily improved by changing 3 starters during the offseason. In fact, in the NFL, you could pretty much say that for certain considering they were ranked #32nd last year by a wide margin.

Kudos on using the TMQ motto, however. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ensign_lee]

[ QUOTE ]
You think NOS wins >50% of the time at Indy? I don't think any NFL team will have a winning road record vs winning NFL teams of playoff caliber.

You've also made the assumption that the new D players in Indy will be worse. It's one thing to assume Tarik Glenn's departure will hurt the O, but you can easily replace Cato June in the NFL.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, actually I think/thought that the Saints would win slightly less than 50% of the time in Indy. I made a typo up there. For the Saints, I was thinking about 40% of the time or so. But point taken.

And you're right about the assumption about the defense getting worse because of the personnel adjustments. After seeing the game, well...maybe that wasn't the best assumption. D'oh? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[ensign_lee]

[ QUOTE ]
"I happen to think they'll win at least half the time at Indianapolis....This moneyline should be at +175 to +180, tops."

i'm confused if the saints win more than 50% of the time wouldn't the line be EVEN at the max?

why do you have the saints winning more than 20% of the time (+223 ~30%) than every book out there?

edit unless you knew joseph addai would get killed on the first play and injured, but even then...

[/ QUOTE ]

Well obviously what I thought and what the bookmakers thought were entirely different things. And well, I was wrong. D'oh. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

And no; I didn't know that Addai was going to get the wind knocked out of him on the first play of the game. hehe