$22 FTP - QQ bubble situation

[acseif]

This is probably simply answered by plugging into SNG wizard or something. What's my play here?

Full Tilt Poker Game #2850878504: + Sit & Go (Turbo) (21747126), Table 1 - 250/500 - No Limit Hold\’em - 17:21:22 ET - 2007/07/04
Seat 2: UTG (2,325)
Seat 4: CO (1,390)
Seat 5: Button (4,630)
Seat 7: Hero (SB) (3,640)
Seat 9: BB (1,515)
Hero posts the small blind of 250
BB posts the big blind of 500
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Qc Qd]
UTG raises to 2,325, and is all in
CO folds
Button calls 2,325
Hero has 15 seconds left to act????

[Wahmbulance]

insta call

[mackthefork]

4 get paid?

[stevi3p]

I looked this up in SnG Wiz. I was expecting it to be close, but apparantly not. If UTG is pushing top 10%, and button calling with top 5%, then pushing is worse than -5% equity.

This doens't take into account bubble-bullying opportunities but it's still a clear fold.

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
I looked this up in SnG Wiz. I was expecting it to be close, but apparantly not. If UTG is pushing top 10%, and button calling with top 5%, then pushing is worse than -5% equity.

This doens't take into account bubble-bullying opportunities but it's still a clear fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't mention folding anything like that around here, people are too blinded by the prettiness of the cards to bother with actual figures in these spots. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Mack

[Velocity]

[ QUOTE ]
I looked this up in SnG Wiz. I was expecting it to be close, but apparantly not. If UTG is pushing top 10%, and button calling with top 5%, then pushing is worse than -5% equity.

This doens't take into account bubble-bullying opportunities but it's still a clear fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Those ranges are ludicrously tight. I'm a little wary of him calling and not shoving, but I still get the money in here.

[Finnisher]

Same hand?

[Shillx]

Yeah I'd fold. It is 1.4% mistake if you have 52% equity (top 20% and 66+/AT+). This assumes the BB always folds. You need like 55% equity to shove (about top 40% push and top 19% call).

[stevi3p]

Ludicrously tight? UTG shoving with A8s+, AT+, and 55+, and the button calling with 99+, and AQ+ sounds reasonable to me. What range would you put him on?

[Shillx]

Also I'd go with KK here given the info we have. You have to be concerned about the BB who might just stick it in (if you fold). He needs ~38% equity but you never know (this spot isn't all that simple).