I dare to ask a preflop question

[ProfessorBen]

I only bring the idea that you should be using stove because it's clear that this decision is all about equity because other factors play a minimal part.

What does Pokerstove do?



In regards to how nitty the Vegasers are, I used the hand ranges given by OP(even removed JTs) and did a sensitivity analysis. Thanks for the tip CDC, will be useful in a couple of weeks.

[ProfessorBen]

I'm not a pokerstove junkie myself and use it sparingly, but it's really much better than the alternative which is making the bad assumptions that are in your analysis. We are better than 50% against AK as QQ vs. AK is much closer to 54-57%, depending on whether AK is suited(Again, less combinations of suited). That percentage also assumes that villain sees all 5 cards, which is not a guarantee.

The above arguments are all nitboxing by me, because the reason we cap is primarily because we have huge equity against the coldcallers in the field. Again, if your inputs are different as CDC argues then the whole dynamic of this problem changes. As stated, this is an easy cap.

Again, Pokerstove is not some almighty religious text that I refer to for every hand I play. It is much better than saying "well, we have 37%(short) and the coldcallers take some of it."

[Jules22]

i like a cap there

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not a pokerstove junkie myself and use it sparingly, but it's really much better than the alternative which is making the bad assumptions that are in your analysis. We are better than 50% against AK as QQ vs. AK is much closer to 54-57%, depending on whether AK is suited(Again, less combinations of suited). That percentage also assumes that villain sees all 5 cards, which is not a guarantee.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain is going to see the turn almost regardless of how the flop comes down and how the action comes out, and if there isn't too much action it is not uncommon to see him on the river because the pot is gigantic.

I like the 50% number in this case because in a huge pot because I'm also in a spot where I generally don't have some RIO postflop as I will flop a hand that is strong (ie, overpair) and unlikely to improve, but is subject to being drawn out on -- assuming I'm not in an overpair vs better overpair situation.

[ QUOTE ]
It is much better than saying "well, we have 37%(short) and the coldcallers take some of it."

[/ QUOTE ]

How much better is it? My heads up estimate was 37%. Stove gives 40%. Going from hot/cold preflop sims to real life play, a few percent is basically negligible as the effects of postflop play swamp the equity difference, especially with a hand like QQ.

I understand being hesitant to use off-the-cuff estimates, but I think you're overstating your case here.

[ProfessorBen]

Better is better.

This is one of those topics I'm done with. I will continue to hunt for that elusive 3-4% and you can ignore it.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Better is better.

This is one of those topics I'm done with. I will continue to hunt for that elusive 3-4% and you can ignore it.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL at being so dogmatic. I actually think 5-betting QQ is kinda meh in this spot barring a read that the guy is leaning toward LAG. If I'm in his spot (UTG) I've got QQ+ and AKs and I'm not exactly a tight tight player.

Rob

[gaming_mouse]

Seems like villain's potential to raise on a bluff or semi-bluff with UI AK on the flop or turn should factor into your decision. That is, capping seems much more attractive against a predictable opponent.

[mike l.]

"I'm not exactly a tight tight player."

yes you are, but i have the same 4 betting range. some good players are comfortable capping hands like 99, others feel awkward capping QQ (4 bet cap). most live poker player's (bad or good) capping ranges dont even inclue AK and QQ.