help me become a professional

[ekinnehs18]

Thanks guys for all the input so far guys.

So from what I gather so far, this is my basic plan so far:

1. dig and read through all the archived posts/FAQ all the posts that I can.
2. read King Yao and Sharp Sports Betting.
3. Deposit money into account and start betting little by little through trial and error.

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Some questions:

1.What are some of the mistakes and misconceptions that many beginners run into when 1st started?

For instance, when I 1st started playing poker, I thought poker was all about tells...I thought poker was about watching for nose twitches, sweating foreheads, trembling hands, etc etc, and the goal was to bluff everyone out.

Obviously that misconceptions was dead wrong in poker. In the assessment of my own sports betting knowledge...I feel like I am making the exact same type of "rookie" misconceptions.

So without rambling on, what are some these misconceptions?

2. Would a guy who is a fantasy expert (say in NBA), be able to profitably beat the sport?

I ask this question because personally I don't think many of these fantasy experts can beat the sport. I think it takes more than just a understanding of the players and the sport to beat it betting.

Only problem is I don't know what it is that makes these fantasy experts fail at sports betting, despite having a strong knowledge the league's players and teams.

So why is it that these fantasy guys can beat the game?

3. When I dabbled at sports betting before this was my handicapping routine:

a)Read papers/check up on current news
b)Check out the lines
c)Pick out games that interest me
d)Read up on the trends/stats between the two clubs
e)Weigh the trends vs. my own opinion.
f)If the trends and my opinion both lean toward a certain team, then I bet it.

I feel my approach to betting a game is completely wrong. Help me identify some problems.

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thats all the questions for now...more to come!

- cheers!

[Performify]

[ QUOTE ]

The vast majority of beating sports betting lies in line shopping and the math behind it. Handicapping, if you are able to do it, is a skill that is not essential to make a large sum as a professional. Its putting the cart before the horse and people (including myself) make this error continually when starting out.

[/ QUOTE ]

The majority of Mogwai's post starts with "read and understand the FAQ".

The importance of lineshopping is detailed in several places in the FAQ...

ergo...

[Performify]

biggest thing to point out right away based on your response is that "trends" are completely worthless. Completely as in almost always* absolutely zero value.



By that i mean the "x team is 13-4 ATS after playing in a dome" or those sort of "trends" which is what I assume you mean.





* Occasionally -- maybe 1 time in 1000 -- the "trend" is actually referencing a winning statistical subset.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

The vast majority of beating sports betting lies in line shopping and the math behind it. Handicapping, if you are able to do it, is a skill that is not essential to make a large sum as a professional. Its putting the cart before the horse and people (including myself) make this error continually when starting out.

[/ QUOTE ]

The majority of Mogwai's post starts with "read and understand the FAQ".

The importance of lineshopping is detailed in several places in the FAQ...

ergo...

[/ QUOTE ]

His is fine. I think I unfairly judged the entire thread by the post immediately above mine. I think it tilted me.

[hedgie43]

Ekinnehs,

As others have said, handicapping is overrated. Sure it's useful, but it's nowhere near as important as line shopping. MyTurn2Raise had a great post showing the importance of line shopping the other day.

[NajdorfDefense]

1) Pick one conf of CBB, probably easiest sport to beat, and make it a small one like Ivy or MEAC or SWAC.
2) Read ALL available info on it, know who's graduating, transferred in and out, who's been arrested, who plays hurt, what coach is looking to leave, who has a drinking problem [Orton ldo], who is hated by teammates, is someone too close to the gambling community [Asu, bc, NW, ccny, Kentucky] everything.
3) Figure out where value lies on a certain game. Sure, taking Niagara at -2 close is better than -4 open, but that doesn't make it a value ALONE. Just because Fannie Mae is at a 10-yr low doesn't mean you should put your pension $$$ in there.

e.g. Team xyz is 1-4 in conf, playing a 3-2 team at home.
But, 4 losses in final minute and 10-pt home win over other 3-2 conf team. Team xyz is 5 pts. Is the line off because lazy bookies /bettors say 'Oh, 1-4 v 'good' 3-2 team - line should be 4-6 tonite, etc.'
Generally, an easier one to spot will be like a 4-2 team that 'should' be 6-0, but had bad luck. Or a team that very often covers at home month-in and out. Or a 5-5 team that is covering every spread or just missing by 1-2, clearly that is a good spot to look for value.

4) Before thremp's head explodes, NOW go lineshopping! Take the undervalued team AND the best line.

5) Track the open to overnight to afternoon to tipoff closign lines. Does money come in on Harvard/Stanford because WallSt traders come home after work and bet bet bet without caring for the spread? Does the smart money keep coming in 15 mins before tipoff? Can you get a huge middle on totals from Open to Close like mt2r and I did on VMI last year?
6) Develop a sense of how the lines will move, now if some player gets injured or team suffers devastating home loss or car crash or suspension, you should be able to react as fast as anyone else to that info. Those extra points and half-points add up. This is the hardest part.
7) Figure out which teams will pose a problem for other OOC teams based on style of play like VMI, UAB, Syracuse, Air Force, et al. Does the 'press' team always press, or do they often back off top PGs because they get broken down? That will affect the totals if not the spread for sure! Etc.
8) If you think the line is fair, but find a rogue line, just keep taking the cheap side. No-brainer.

Lineshopping is much easier and faster, particularly if you think the books have the number right on big - ACC, Big East, B10, etc. But with solid 'capping, I can find values I'm willing to make serious %BR bets on that I otherwise would not [this does not happen overnight]. Combine with Kelly = profit.

Calling a line move by 1-2pts from open + line shop for extra half-full point is a huge advantage. Rinse, repeat.

Finally, BR mgmt is the most important skill to have regardless of what some people will tell you. You can get in 2pts better than close and lose 9-10 games in a row...I did just last season. Variance happens.

[rush66]

Naj's post just made this thread great. Nice post. I want to second both a point by perf and by naj. Trends are worthless, and BR management is what kills everyone. You can be amazing at picking winners but if you are betting 60% of your roll each time. You are a goner.

Im stated before, a mix of capping, line movement prediction/reading, LINE SHOPPING, and BR management are the keys.

I dont think being a fantasy expert holds any weight whatsoever, personally. Just because Todd Heap scores 25 fantasy points a game, doesn't mean the ravens are going to cover the spread. Now on the other hand. I think being a good sports bettor can easily transition over to fantasy because you can waive and pick up players based on matchups for their team and the edges you have calculated your team to have.

[cato-tonia]

Ekinnehs,

as others have been unwilling to say, line movement is vastly over-rated.

and, be sure to examine the records of the various posters. many talk a very good game, but cannot isolate a winner if their lives depended on it. you will also often find, the most insolent never post a selection; or, if they do, will claim a win rate that does not tally with the selections they publish. generally, this kind of poster is most apt to ridicule approaches which differ from those most widely accepted; they put purely technical considerations before fundamental considerations; and they often accumulate data for its own sake, lacking any judgment in the relative merits of any single item of it.

this is not poker. and the only thing that readily transfers from that game to this is your ability and determination to win. you must accept as a reality how few winners there are in this game, and how very, very few win major sums of money.

gl

-c

[rush66]

I completely agree with everything, except the 1st line. The only reason anyone can say its over rated, is because they dont know how to use it correctly. Several winners in the sports betting world use line movement including fezzik (who is overrated in my opinion) and rickja, who has gone tout. It is much harder to get good at than say line shopping and in that aspect it is overrated...

BTW, I think cato is just thelyingthief under a different name.

[B00T]

cato is a member of the Crypts, ldo