6.50s AQ bubble call/shove/fold?

[ceavou22]

UTG raiser has been playing fairly tight. Wasn't sure as there seems to be a case for calling, shoving and folding. Calling cause stacks aren't too short, shoving cause think I have FE over his raise and he seems to be loosening up a bit on bubble and folding cause BB is horrible and likely to bust himself soon + stack is decent.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG (t3905)
Button (t4565)
Hero (t2838)
BB (t2192)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t800</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero ?

[Better Than U]

fold

[sence25]

i don't think you can call here.
i shove it.

[deepextragully]

Dont think you have the FE to shove this. Fold.

[sence25]

it's a monster hand 4handed and BB ain't really short..
it can't be an easy fold
prolly it is one, but it must be some kinda close aint it?

[PokahPokah]

with no shorties i think this is very close

[RexWoo]

I shove this always except if this is the first time he is raising.

[Wolverine]

[ QUOTE ]
with no shorties i think this is very close

[/ QUOTE ]

I like shoving here. Don't know if that's correct or not. Probably is a close call.

[cougar62]

Fairly tight means he's probably got something, and is probably ahead of you with either AK or a pair. If you've seen him raise and then fold to a shove pf before you might shove, but I think you're in a bad spot here. Wait for a better opportunity. Calling is definately out of the question IMO, it costs you almost a third of your stack and you're OOP to a big stack. So I'm leaning to fold with your read, against a random 6.50s villian this is probably an insta-shove.

[pa3lsvt]

You can't call as you'll be the shorty if you ever fold the hand.

SNG Wiz says this is VERY marginal. "Average" player (20 open/14 call) makes it a fold, "Loose" player (30/16) and it's a push. The BE point is about a range where UTG opens 25% of hands and only calls half of them. Note that most of the profit from this push (like most bubble pushes) comes from fold equity.

The fact that he raised 4BB tells me that he's never folding if you or BB shove, so I don't like a shove at all and have to go with fold.