Pay Off Here?

TheOneWizard · #1 05-20-2006, 04:43 PM

I was still new to the table at this point so I didn't have any reads.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $64.65
UTG+1: $41.05
CO: $45.35
Button: $79.10
Hero: $48
BB: $61.40

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, 2 folds, Button calls, Hero calls, BB checks.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($2, 4 players)
Hero bets $2, BB folds, UTG calls, Button folds.

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($6, 2 players)
Hero bets $6, UTG calls.

River: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($18, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $8, Hero...?

I potted the flop and turn under the usual thinking that I had the best hand and needed to punish anyone who was drawing. Now after making Aces-up on the river and considering the underbet the general thinking is I should pay off here less I make myself completely bluffable. Yet in my experience at this level villain has the flush 100% of the time here. Should I save the $8?

Sh@i'tan · #2 05-20-2006, 04:46 PM

Don't pot the turn. Anyway i call here all day getting 3:1. Your ahead here more than you think.

absoludicrous · #3 05-20-2006, 04:56 PM

This seems like a value betted flush. However, with over 3:1 I make the call. You beat a lot of possible hands. Correct me if I'm wrong, but 1:3=33% meaning that if we can beat 67% of his possible range, we should make this call. Or is it, if we can beat 33% of his possible range we should call? I should know this answer. But I'm second guessing myself.

testaaja · #4 05-20-2006, 04:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Don't pot the turn. Anyway i call here all day getting 3:1. Your ahead here more than you think.

[/ QUOTE ]

Terry Tidy · #5 05-20-2006, 05:09 PM

absoludicrous

In this case you're calling $8 into a pot already holding $26 ($18 and the $8 river bet). So you're getting odds of something like 9/4 (3.25)

So your hand needs to be good 33%+ to be EV+

As for the hand, I'd probably feel like folding then call, I think you might win only just 33% of the time.

Sh@i'tan · #6 05-20-2006, 05:19 PM

3:1 means you are putting in 1/4 of the final pot should you call. Which means you have to be good 25 percent of the time not 33 percent.

Terry Tidy · #7 05-20-2006, 05:25 PM

Absolutely right: 25% not 33%

My head isn't working today, I'll drink some booze quick so I can blame it on that.

absoludicrous · #8 05-20-2006, 05:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
3:1 means you are putting in 1/4 of the final pot should you call. Which means you have to be good 25 percent of the time not 33 percent.

[/ QUOTE ]

(18+8+8=32)/8 = 4.25:1 = 25%....

TheOneWizard · #9 05-20-2006, 05:28 PM

As the ensuing math discussion has pointed out we do only need to be ahead of his hand range a relatively small portion of the time to make this a +EV call. But if we put the math aside and go back to playing poker and look at his range what the heck would he smooth call with twice and then make this river bet with? As far as I'm concerned he has two clubs in his hand 100% of the time and it's a -EV value (read: sucker) call.

testaaja · #10 05-20-2006, 05:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
what the heck would he smooth call with twice

[/ QUOTE ]
Ax, KJ? What makes you so sure that he has the flush? Well maybe he has the flush but we can't be sure enough so it's a call.