Big Pot River Decision

[Kevin J]

20-40

CO opens, button 3-bets, and I take a flyer from the bb with 22. CO caps it and both the button and I call.

*CO is a good, solid, thinking player who is capable of anything, but normally isn't too tricky. Button tries to play well, but just isn't there yet.

Flop comes 532 with two diamonds. I check, CO bets, button raises, I call, CO calls.

*Normally, I'd never slowplay here, but I wanted it to look like I'm on diamonds. I know button has an overpair, and wanted to find if CO had one too. Either way, I'm sure the turn is getting bet.

Turn is the Kd. Since, I played it like I had diamonds and there's no way I'm chancing it getting checked around, I bet. CO raises, button cold-calls, I 3-bet, CO 4-bets, button folds, I call.

River is a 4h. I check, CO bets. I....?

[AragornX151]

I really dislike this hand from start to finish. Fold preflop. If there were a bunch of cold callers for 3 cold, OK, but two opponents isn't enough to play 22. On the flop, start applying the gas. If someone has AK with the A of diamonds (or AA with the Ad), he has real outs, and you need to get the money in here. Representing diamonds doesn't make any sense to me--you have a big hand that's almost always ahead right now but is definitely vulnerable, and I don't see a need to mask it, especially since you said button isn't there yet as a hand reader.

On the turn, the lead is fine but I'd usually just call the raise. Not only could someone have the flush, but KKK is a possibility. 3-betting is fine if you really don't think those hands are likely, but I'd generally just call when someone raises this turn. I could be convinced 3-betting is best, I guess, but I'd really have to think KKK is unlikely.

On the river, I'd usually pay off but it's gotta be a leak--I just don't see how you're ever good. The few hands you were still ahead of (AA or AK-AJ with the Ad) just got there. The fact that you described him as creative enough to do anything makes it a sobbing call, I suppose.

[Kevin J]

Thanks Aragorn - Just a couple of comments/clarifications..

[ QUOTE ]
If there were a bunch of cold callers for 3 cold, OK, but two opponents isn't enough to play 22.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree it's close, which is why I called it a "flyer". They are both aggressive players, with one being a not-so-good player, so I think my implied odds are there. I also think capping it myself would've been ok in this potential steal/re-steal scenario. Although, like I said, it IS close and I think folding is fine. Especially if I'm not going to play it well post-flop.

[ QUOTE ]
On the turn, the lead is fine but I'd usually just call the raise. Not only could someone have the flush, but KKK is a possibility. 3-betting is fine if you really don't think those hands are likely, but I'd generally just call when someone raises this turn. I could be convinced 3-betting is best, I guess, but I'd really have to think KKK is unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

KK is VERY unlikely... CO doesn't figure to have it, cuz he almost certainly would've 3-bet the flop. The button "could" have it, but it's not that likely. Of course, when button folds the turn, I figure to at least have outs to a full.

[ QUOTE ]
On the river, I'd usually pay off but it's gotta be a leak--I just don't see how you're ever good. The few hands you were still ahead of (AA or AK-AJ with the Ad) just got there. The fact that you described him as creative enough to do anything makes it a sobbing call, I suppose.

[/ QUOTE ]

The river was my main question. The fact that button is creative, means he could have Ad,Kx. But can he have anything I can possibly beat? I'm getting like 20 to 1!! So folding seems horrendous, but can it be correct here?

[AragornX151]

Kevin,

The turn is very close, and I could definitely be convinced. I would certainly 3-bet it in certain circumstances.

Getting 20-1, I can't see calling being anything worse than a small error. Since you said villain is very creative, that at least means there's a CHANCE he's turned some made hand that you beat into a bluff...

As for pre; IMO, the implied odds are really not there. Unless you flop the set, you're gonna have to give it up almost always vs. two opponents, and you're OOP besides. If you must play and have some strong reads, I prefer capping to calling and taking the initiative--at least then you might get hands like JJ and KQ to fold if an A flops, etc.

[SNOWBALL]

I'm guessing this is a 1/2 structure which makes this a PF fold

[lucid75]

I like a fold preflop, and you need to c/r the flop for sure. On the turn, bet/3 bet isn't horrible, but after getting capped by CO, he probably has diamonds, or AdKx. I can't think of a hand you can beat.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
20-40

CO opens, button 3-bets, and I take a flyer from the bb with 22.

[/ QUOTE ]

meh. i fold there w/ 22.

[ QUOTE ]
CO caps it and both the button and I call.

*CO is a good, solid, thinking player who is capable of anything, but normally isn't too tricky. Button tries to play well, but just isn't there yet.

Flop comes 532 with two diamonds. I check, CO bets, button raises, I call, CO calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

i definitely look to get a LOT of bets in on this flop. overpairs and flush draws put in 4 bets here a lot of the time. give them that opportunity.

[ QUOTE ]


*Normally, I'd never slowplay here, but I wanted it to look like I'm on diamonds. I know button has an overpair, and wanted to find if CO had one too. Either way, I'm sure the turn is getting bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

but an A/K and even Q might slow people down. plus if a diamond comes it'll slow 'em down also unless they have the flush and then you're on the defensive (though you're still happy to get bets from high pairs 1 diamond...)

[ QUOTE ]


Turn is the Kd. Since, I played it like I had diamonds and there's no way I'm chancing it getting checked around, I bet. CO raises, button cold-calls, I 3-bet, CO 4-bets, button folds, I call.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree w/ that given previous streets.
[ QUOTE ]

River is a 4h. I check, CO bets. I....?

[/ QUOTE ]

ugh, you don't even beat an overplayed AAd anymore.

the only thing you beat is like QQd who is crazy and puts in the 4th bet there.

i'd reaaaaalllllly wanna fold this but in a pot this size, you might see AdKx enough or who knows what for a crying call on teh river.

Barron

[Kevin J]

I'm not the best at analyzing hands from a mathematical standpoint and I certainly wouldn't fault anyone for mucking twos here. But I think my pre-flop decision is closer than some of you guys are allowing for.

According to my pokerstove, 22 has just shy of 30% equity share 3-way, against an agressive open raise in the cutoff, and a typical button's 3-betting range.

Since it's a fairly easy hand to play after the flop, it doesn't have to get 4-bet, one player doesn't play well, they are both aggressive, and I'm getting 3 to 1, I think it's slightly better than "meh" here, but I'll quickly concede not by much.

[Kevin J]

[ QUOTE ]
I like a fold preflop, and you need to c/r the flop for sure. On the turn, bet/3 bet isn't horrible, but after getting capped by CO, he probably has diamonds, or AdKx. I can't think of a hand you can beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

So fold the river?

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not the best at analyzing hands from a mathematical standpoint and I certainly wouldn't fault anyone for mucking twos here. But I think my pre-flop decision is closer than some of you guys are allowing for.

According to my pokerstove, 22 has just shy of 30% equity share 3-way, against an agressive open raise in the cutoff, and a typical button's 3-betting range.

Since it's a fairly easy hand to play after the flop, it doesn't have to get 4-bet, one player doesn't play well, they are both aggressive, and I'm getting 3 to 1, I think it's slightly better than "meh" here, but I'll quickly concede not by much.

[/ QUOTE ]

the problem is, imo that you say "it's easy to play after the flop" but the equity is based off of all in.

Barron