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  #11  
Old 11-26-2007, 03:51 PM
AlexB182 AlexB182 is offline
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Default Re: made trips on turn lead out and opponet shoves $50nl

In my experience shoves out of nowhere (out of nowhere cause the only thing he made was a strange minraise on the turn) by a weak player are more often a bad bluff than a smart move to get max value. But nevermind guys, seems I just have another opinion on this hand which is absolutely no problem IMO...
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  #12  
Old 11-26-2007, 04:04 PM
RapidLearner RapidLearner is offline
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Default Re: made trips on turn lead out and opponet shoves $50nl

I find these load-blowing all-ins to be a monster more often than a bluff. You need to be ahead only 43/(54.5 + 43) = 44% of the time to break even. I'd guess in general one is ahead here 20-30% of the time against an unknown, since I'd say 70-80%+ of the time the donk just splooged all over his screen with KK/77/K7/A7/33/J7/Q7 and fell off his chair getting it all-in.

As played, check the river, and call reasonably sized bets ($4-$8).
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  #13  
Old 11-26-2007, 04:06 PM
CalledDownLight CalledDownLight is offline
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Default Re: made trips on turn lead out and opponet shoves $50nl

snap call, but bet like $7 on the river
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  #14  
Old 11-26-2007, 04:08 PM
SABR42 SABR42 is offline
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Default Re: made trips on turn lead out and opponet shoves $50nl

I think this is a pretty easy fold fwiw.
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  #15  
Old 11-26-2007, 04:09 PM
RapidLearner RapidLearner is offline
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Default Re: made trips on turn lead out and opponet shoves $50nl

[ QUOTE ]
In my experience shoves out of nowhere (out of nowhere cause the only thing he made was a strange minraise on the turn) by a weak player are more often a bad bluff than a smart move to get max value. But nevermind guys, seems I just have another opinion on this hand which is absolutely no problem IMO...

[/ QUOTE ]

At the time of the hand we only have 10 hands of history on the villain. He is basically an unknown. You have to factor in that he may not be a weak player.

Change the villain to the 80+ VPIP with 50+ hands and an obvious history of doing donkey stuff, and I'd change my vote. Against an unknown, though, I'd fold.
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  #16  
Old 11-26-2007, 04:11 PM
Chargers In 07 Chargers In 07 is offline
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Default Re: made trips on turn lead out and opponet shoves $50nl

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a pretty easy fold fwiw.

[/ QUOTE ]ditto
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