Trips on Flop - Turn str8 scare card

[JanelleBB7]

I hate these types of hands. I only have a total of 18 hands with villian and I suspect he must be a holdem player and not a regular to PLO, so I don't know what to make of his calling my raise on the flop. My 1st assumption is he has two pair because I hadn't been very impressed with the few hands I had seen him play, but of course it is very reasonable to assume he has a High wrap here. Please tell me what action should be taken on the turn.

Full Tilt Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $31.55
UTG+1: $52.85
MP1: $69.35
MP2: $29.70
CO: $12.50
Janellebb7: $29.45
SB: $38.50
BB: $7

Pre-flop: (8 players) Janellebb7 is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, Janellebb7 calls, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($3, 6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets $3</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Janellebb7 raises to $12</font>, SB calls, 4 folds.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($30, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB is all-in $26</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Janellebb7 ????

[Buzz]

Hi Omaha Queen - Assuming Villain has the Broadway (ace high straight) and a re-draw to a spade flush, here's the math:
$82*10/44+$41*3/44-$26*31/44 =
+$18.64+$2.80-$18.32 = +$3.12

The total is positive, meaning you have a positive e.v. Another way of putting it is you have favorable odds to draw.

Call.

Assuming Villain does have the Broadway, you'll lose more often than you'll win or tie, and by a 31 to 13 margin. But when you win or tie, you'll more than make up the difference.

It's close, but call.

Buzz

(If he doesn't have the Broadway, the odds are even more in your favor)

[Elrazor]

Buzz's math pretty much sum up the turn, you only have $17 back and you are 3.4-1 to fill up assuming thats good enough to win the pot here (i really dont see AAxx or KKxx as part of villans range tho) so its a standard call

the only think im not keen on here is the limp pre flop - i would pretty much always raise here. The presence of shortstacks makes this a much stronger raise than normal, as any potential callers know if either of them pull the trigger and shove you can reraise all in (a pot raise here with so many limpers is screaming AAxx to the rest of the table)

[Poker monkey]

Meh, I think limping here is fine. This isn't a premium hand and if you get limp-re-raised you'll have to throw it away.

[Rob121]

I raise here everytime.

[Elrazor]

[ QUOTE ]
Meh, I think limping here is fine. This isn't a premium hand and if you get limp-re-raised you'll have to throw it away.

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont hate limping, but you should certainly be raising here at least some of the time to vary your play

[abscr]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Omaha Queen - Assuming Villain has the Broadway (ace high straight) and a re-draw to a spade flush, here's the math:
$82*10/44+$41*3/44-$26*31/44 =
+$18.64+$2.80-$18.32 = +$3.12


[/ QUOTE ]

Why isn't it 82*10/42 + ((1/4)*(3/42) + (3/4)*(2/42)) - 26*29/42 ?

If we are assuming he has TQxx with a flush draw, can we not remove those from the deck, while taking into account the odds of having the Qs?

[getitfixed]

I think you need to raise here more times than not PF. You have a decent hand, can narrow the field and have position As played, I think a C/C-Shove by BB here is broadway more often than not...that being said, I snap call 90% here.

Congrats on the "Queen" handle!

[JanelleBB7]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Omaha Queen - Assuming Villain has the Broadway (ace high straight) and a re-draw to a spade flush, here's the math:
$82*10/44+$41*3/44-$26*31/44 =
+$18.64+$2.80-$18.32 = +$3.12

The total is positive, meaning you have a positive e.v. Another way of putting it is you have favorable odds to draw.

Call.

Assuming Villain does have the Broadway, you'll lose more often than you'll win or tie, and by a 31 to 13 margin. But when you win or tie, you'll more than make up the difference.

It's close, but call.

Buzz

(If he doesn't have the Broadway, the odds are even more in your favor)

[/ QUOTE ]

Great. I did call here thinking I very well could be behind but it didn't seem likely to me at the time. I was using the logic that he would have raised me with a high wrap hand and he hadn't. It was obvious he didn't have aces and if he did that would have been quite a slow play not to raise the pot preflop. I have seen it done before though but I didn't think this was the case here.

I didn't bother to raise this hand preflop because I didn't want to face a reraise which this table had been doing a lot at this point. It was getting ridiculous and so I just limped. However, I agree raising here preflop is a good idea. I just wanted to see the flop and proceed from that point.

The guy was chasing his inside straight draw and caught... hmmm why do I keep running into these players and why do they keep catching. I know! I know variance! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Variance should be bleeped if you ask me... because it is becoming my new curse word [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img].

But I can't complain I won two tourneies in two days and in a row for $299 then for $279 not bad !

Thanks for the congrats on my title [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
If we are assuming he has TQxx with a flush draw, can we not remove those from the deck, while taking into account the odds of having the Qs?

[/ QUOTE ]Thanks, abscr, makes good sense to me.

Instead of<ul type="square"> $82*10/44+$41*3/44-$26*31/44 =
+$18.64+$2.80-$18.32 = +$3.12[/list]make it<ul type="square">$82*10/42+$41*3/42-$26*29/42 =
+$19.52+$2.93-$17.95 = +$4.50[/list]I should point our that there is some possibility of Villain having a pair of aces, and some other possibilities as well, that reduce this final number somewhat. Then again, we're not absolutely certain Villain has the Broadway, which increases this final number somewhat - although it surely looks like Villain has the Broadway - and it also surely looks like Villain doesn't have aces.

At any rate, the number is only a rough approximation to give us an idea if a call has positive e.v. (And indeed it does).

I thought if anyone challenged the math it might be on a different basis. But I like your improvement.

Thanks for the correction.

Buzz