foxwoods 5/10 haven't been this confused in a while

[snorer]

i think check raising the river even smallish to like, 1k, is better than calling and hoping for an overcall in between, especially if you consider UTG on the tight side. i only like that play if you're worried about being behind, don't want to risk getting in a bad spot and losing more, and feel like the overcall will compensate you for not extracting more value when you're ahead. but if UTG is tight, i don't think you can expect an overcall enough to warrant that, never mind the fact that it goes without saying it's really hard to put the cutoff on any hand that beats you... so i'm not really leaning on the side of caution here. me personally, i'd make a pretty substantial check raise on river here. although if you think UTG can get tricky enough on this river enough to checkraise it opens up a whole new bag of tricks

[AAismyfriend]

I think you lose way too much value by not c/ring the river here. Especially since UTG is not going to call in this spot some of the time. I like making it somewhere in the $1k-1500 range on the river. He could very well have a hand like 89 or 88 that will almost surely pay you off here.

[Scipio]

Don´t understand why you don´t bet the turn but i don´t know anything about livepoker [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[freekie]

betting into 4 people on the turn with that board and your weak hand is useless imo

i like the line you took, and i would def raise teh riv to 1k

[trplthrt]

bump

Duck, would like to know your thoughts on the hand range given preflop bet and results

[fslexcduck]

all right - well preflop hand range isn't really interesting - his raise to 40 basically means he has 2 cards that he wants to play and perhaps they can make a straight and/or a flush.

anyways i think the key to this hand for me was the flop check - i just didn't know if he was the kind of guy who would check any sort of decent draw on the flop. So given that, I just seriously discounted JT and clubs from his range. It is possible he has weak clubs and didn't want to semibluff a very coordinated board into 5 people, but like I said I don't really know if he's thinking like that.

Anyway, I think the hand is standard until the river - for everyone that wants to lead out on the turn... I hate that. I think our hand is quite weak and stack protection comes much more into play here than protecting a small pot of only 200 dollars. It isn't worth it, it's not like there's 2k sitting out there. I called because often enough the 2h will roll off on the river and it will go check check check and I'll win... but if anyone puts in any more money, I'm pretty much a dead duck (so to speak)

Anyways I guess everyone likes a check/raise - maybe that's the best play. But to me it just seemed like UTG had a hand he liked very much, but despite that, there's basically no way he would cold call my check-raise. So like I said I couldn't give CO a hand - 98 makes the most sense, or trip 9's with a decent club or straight draw or something. I didn't think CO would pay off a raise with trip 9's when I check-raised two people... 98 I obviously lose a ton of value from but then there's also A9 which is somewhat of a possibility. And then there's bluffs which I just thought made up enough of his range to sway this to a call. Since I thought his range was 45% bluffs, 35% hands that can't pay me off, 15% hands that can, and 5% hands that beat me, or something like that - I just thought if UTG overcalled 30% of the time or something like that, it would offset the 1k I would miss in value from check-raising CO (once you add in the 5% of the time I lose an additional 1k). That's the rough math and I guess it was just based on reads.

I just thought it was a very interesting hand because usually I'm a huge huge value monkey (especially in live poker when everyone A. plays with their cards face up and B. is a calling station) but my analysis of this one told me calling was the answer. I don't know, I guess it really just comes down to reading CO's range, which might be more read-based. Anyway I do appreciate the responses, so thanks.

[fslexcduck]

oh, results are stupid. i called, UTG overcalled, i said "full house" and flipped my hand, they both laughed... CO especially just looked pretty shocked and gave a "what the hell where did that come from look" which made me think he was value betting trip 9's or worse, and I scooped. they didn't show.

[tcorbin16]

so duck what did villians have? maybe i read the post wrong?

[Diamond Lie]

[ QUOTE ]
all right - well preflop hand range isn't really interesting - his raise to 40 basically means he has 2 cards that he wants to play and perhaps they can make a straight and/or a flush.

anyways i think the key to this hand for me was the flop check - i just didn't know if he was the kind of guy who would check any sort of decent draw on the flop. So given that, I just seriously discounted JT and clubs from his range. It is possible he has weak clubs and didn't want to semibluff a very coordinated board into 5 people, but like I said I don't really know if he's thinking like that.

Anyway, I think the hand is standard until the river - for everyone that wants to lead out on the turn... I hate that. I think our hand is quite weak and stack protection comes much more into play here than protecting a small pot of only 200 dollars. It isn't worth it, it's not like there's 2k sitting out there. I called because often enough the 2h will roll off on the river and it will go check check check and I'll win... but if anyone puts in any more money, I'm pretty much a dead duck (so to speak)

Anyways I guess everyone likes a check/raise - maybe that's the best play. But to me it just seemed like UTG had a hand he liked very much, but despite that, there's basically no way he would cold call my check-raise. So like I said I couldn't give CO a hand - 98 makes the most sense, or trip 9's with a decent club or straight draw or something. I didn't think CO would pay off a raise with trip 9's when I check-raised two people... 98 I obviously lose a ton of value from but then there's also A9 which is somewhat of a possibility. And then there's bluffs which I just thought made up enough of his range to sway this to a call. Since I thought his range was 45% bluffs, 35% hands that can't pay me off, 15% hands that can, and 5% hands that beat me, or something like that - I just thought if UTG overcalled 30% of the time or something like that, it would offset the 1k I would miss in value from check-raising CO (once you add in the 5% of the time I lose an additional 1k). That's the rough math and I guess it was just based on reads.

I just thought it was a very interesting hand because usually I'm a huge huge value monkey (especially in live poker when everyone A. plays with their cards face up and B. is a calling station) but my analysis of this one told me calling was the answer. I don't know, I guess it really just comes down to reading CO's range, which might be more read-based. Anyway I do appreciate the responses, so thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is why you're one of my favorite posters [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[trplthrt]

tc- post said they didn't show.

I would imagine one of them had the flush.