bottom two against rocky

[mike l.]

i folded. im thinking after some sleep that it was a really great laydown, and i was feeling that way at the time too. i wouldnt be shocked if he played a set of aces this way. the only hand i could see him playing this way might be AK. i honestly think he's just turning AT face up on the river and praying it's good. im going to ask him next time i see him, pretty sure he'll help me out he's a nice guy. im hoping some bellagio regulars can give me some input on this. he's the dark haired guy with the beard on the cover of this dvd: https://www.urbandvdclub.com/content.php?site=3

[private joker]

Mike,

I'm not sure that limit holdem is a game where we need to get some sleep in order to be proud of check-folding 2 pair heads up closing the action getting 8:1 at a 3-handed table.

[mike l.]

i was proud of the laydown as soon as i made it. bet-folding here is lazy. i cant say everything i want to say because i dont want rocky to read this thread which by chance he might. in general 3 handed requires many more showdowns. but hold em is a very situational game, full of exceptions. i felt this was one of them and made the POWER FOLD lol

[blindside]

it is a defensive check on the river but it does seem like some sort of pair that wants to see it.. so why wouldn't he bet a strong pair(KK, AT/AK, KQ?) at the end?

he might not think this way though and if he just checks behind AT then you're probably right in folding...

[I.Rowboat]

I dunno...I've never played with him, and but it seems like your river check is just as likely to induce the aforementioned "value bluff" from him, which he may see as a thin value bet if he puts you on a hand like QxTc or JxTc. Given the action and your description, I have to think the bottom end of his range here is KcQx, especially if his sigh (to your turn bet) was genuine, and he may thus perceive his river bet as a thin value bet. And you can beat more than just the bottom end of his range.

I think the problem is your post-flop action (calling flop 3-bet rather than 4-betting, coupled with your turn lead/river check line) looks more like a failed semi-bluff with middle pair + straight/flush draw than a strong-ish made hand like bottom two.

It may be a crying call, but I would call here.

[drbk2]

[ QUOTE ]
i folded. im thinking after some sleep that it was a really great laydown, and i was feeling that way at the time too. i wouldnt be shocked if he played a set of aces this way. the only hand i could see him playing this way might be AK. i honestly think he's just turning AT face up on the river and praying it's good. im going to ask him next time i see him, pretty sure he'll help me out he's a nice guy. im hoping some bellagio regulars can give me some input on this. he's the dark haired guy with the beard on the cover of this dvd: https://www.urbandvdclub.com/content.php?site=3

[/ QUOTE ]

Ohhhhh this Rocky. I played a lot with him at Casino Arizona. Really great guy. Yeah he'll tell you exactly what he had when you ask him because like you said he's a nice guy and he's got a pretty good memory.

Now that I know who you're talking about fully, I agree that this is a fold, with betting the river being slightly worse. He'll never pay you off with something you beat if you checkraise, and will almost never fold a hand that beats you. He is definitely checking behind KcKx on the river, as well as AT, pretty much the only two hands I see him possibly having here that you beat. I don't think he would play AK like this ever because he wouldn't put in that much action on the flop.

[mike l.]

thanks. i just talked to him and he told me he had A9 so my laydown was good.

sorry to everyone who was confused because i didnt make it clear about the way this guy plays. he also confirmed for me he wouldnt bet AT on the river there.

[blindside]

i don't get it.... if he b/3b the flop with A9, why couldn't he play AT/AK/KK/KQ the same way? maybe throw QT in there? and wouldn't he call on the end with all/most of those? or was he not going to pay off with those hands either?

OK maybe he doesn't play AT/AK like that come to think of it.. you already said as much... but if that's uncharacteristic of him then isn't b/3bing A9 just as uncharacteristic of him on this flop?

good hand though... and good read which probably tilted the decision to what you did .. but i can't shake the feeling that with most anyone their calling range is a dog to your holding...

anyway this is probably why you're a much better player than i am...

[Justin A]

I think the fold is close but it's really a player read. Also you're pretty good at reading body language and you're no good when he makes the bet where you check and he's obviously betting because since you checked his hand is obviously good.

I just pokerstoved it and put in all the hands he could conceivably have according to your read, one that includes AK and one that doesn't. Basically it comes down to exactly whether or not he can have AK here. If he can have AK but only with the Kc, then it's still a fold, but if he can also play AK without the club this way then you need to call. Please take a look at these ranges and make sure they're ok. For instance, would he just be calling your turn raise with a straight? That's pretty important since that makes up quite a few combos on the river.

Board: Qc Jc 9s Ac 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 15.730% 13.48% 02.25% 12 2.00 { Jd9d }
Hand 1: 84.270% 82.02% 02.25% 73 2.00 { AA, QQ-JJ, 99, AJs+, A9s, KTs, QJs, Q9s, J9s, T8s, AJo+, A9o, KTo, QJo, Q9o, J9o, T8o }

Board: Qc Jc 9s Ac 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 02.597% 00.00% 02.60% 0 2.00 { Jd9d }
Hand 1: 97.403% 94.81% 02.60% 73 2.00 { AA, QQ-JJ, 99, AQs-AJs, A9s, KTs, QJs, Q9s, J9s, T8s, AQo-AJo, A9o, KTo, QJo, Q9o, J9o, T8o }

[mike l.]

his play of A9 this way is a little strange but ive seen him play AK like this as well and of course take the free card on the turn. that's why i felt AK was possible.

one thing that affected the flop play was i had been getting really aggressive, particularly in 3 betting the button's raises out of my sb, forcing him to fold a lot of hands in the bb that he wanted to play for 1 more bet. so he was a bit fed up with my aggression. also i had been c/ring him a lot on flops when he raised and i called in the bb. so i think this was a "i have a pair this time and im going to 3 bet you and maintain control of the hand" flop 3 bet. i actually sensed that on the flop and almost 4 bet and in retrospect should have.