bottom two against rocky

[DeathDonkey]

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Hey all first post. I agree the river is more of a bet here than c/c, but certainly if we get raised we are cooked, right?

Is this a bet/fold on the river?

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Welcome. Yes if you bet river I'd bet/fold. Live players are generally not tricky enough to turn a one pair hand into a bluff raise here.

Mike, dunno what everyone is saying here, it has to be close to a checkraise for value. I never fold so screw that silly idea. We have the "value bluff" which is sometimes called the "two way bet", how about the "two way checkraise value bluff" ? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-DeathDonkey

[27offsooot]

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Mike, dunno what everyone is saying here, it has to be close to a checkraise for value. I never fold so screw that silly idea. We have the "value bluff" which is sometimes called the "two way bet", how about the "two way checkraise value bluff" ? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-DeathDonkey

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You may very well be right that raising > call > fold, but can u please explain value-bluff to me?

If we assign Rocky some range, for the sake of argument, T9-AQ, then Rocky will pick a certain threshold at which to fold all worse hands and call all better ones. Depending on this threshold, the c/r will act as either a bluff or for value given our hand value and the size of the pot. For example, if he folds everything, then it's as a bluff; if he calls everything within this range, then it's for value. And there's some hand within this range that his decision is EV = 0, and it will be closer to the bottom of his hand range b/c he'll be getting good odds. I'm sure u understand this, but just wanted to spell out my own thinking.

Thus, the question I have is, how can something work as both a bluff and value bet? It's not as if he will fold AQ, but now call with T9, or whatever. I guess this term is used when we don't really know where his threshold for folding/ calling is and it could be for value or as a bluff. But then, isn't that the case for most hands.

BTW, again, u are a much better player and have much more experience in these games, so what sort of range do u assign Rocky? I would extend out his range to even include sets a certain percent of the time, given that Mike's turn bet looks ultra scary. But then again, this is 3 handed, and no history is given, so i don't know.

[jba]

27o

i don't know if this is exactly what DD is talking about but look at the call and the raise as two separate actions - the call can be for value but the raise can be profitable.

just to throw out numbers say he is bluffing of value betting a worse hand 1/6 of the time, 4/6 of the time he has the nuts, and 1/6 of the time he has queens up. getting 8-1 on the river we obv have value to call but if he'll fold queens up a little over half the time it's profitable to bluff raise.

I absolutely don't think we're good >50% of the time if we get called on a river c/r though.

[drbk2]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hey all first post. I agree the river is more of a bet here than c/c, but certainly if we get raised we are cooked, right?

Is this a bet/fold on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Welcome. Yes if you bet river I'd bet/fold. Live players are generally not tricky enough to turn a one pair hand into a bluff raise here.

Mike, dunno what everyone is saying here, it has to be close to a checkraise for value. I never fold so screw that silly idea. We have the "value bluff" which is sometimes called the "two way bet", how about the "two way checkraise value bluff" ? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-DeathDonkey

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Man the checkraise here would be awesome. Just thinking about being in villain's spot if I got checkraised on the river is getting me to shake my head. You would definitely confuse him enough to fold out a better two pair or to call you with something worse than your hand.

[DeathDonkey]

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just to throw out numbers say he is bluffing of value betting a worse hand 1/6 of the time, 4/6 of the time he has the nuts, and 1/6 of the time he has queens up. getting 8-1 on the river we obv have value to call but if he'll fold queens up a little over half the time it's profitable to bluff raise.

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This

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I guess this term is used when we don't really know where his threshold for folding/ calling is and it could be for value or as a bluff. But then, isn't that the case for most hands.

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and this nailed it.

There is a pretty funny thread in high stakes NL right now where FWF says something like "a value bluff is where you stick all your chips in with no clue where you are at". He is pretty much dead on and his point is you will be better at poker if you don't need to "value bluff" because you always know where you are at. Still, it can be pretty serviceable since you sometimes have no clue where you are at and can overcome that temporarily with aggression.

Some people might fold a better two pair here, some people might call with one pair, we aren't sure which type of person this guy is so we stick some chips in there and find out.

-DeathDonkey

[27offsooot]

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just to throw out numbers say he is bluffing of value betting a worse hand 1/6 of the time, 4/6 of the time he has the nuts, and 1/6 of the time he has queens up. getting 8-1 on the river we obv have value to call but if he'll fold queens up a little over half the time it's profitable to bluff raise.

I absolutely don't think we're good >50% of the time if we get called on a river c/r though.

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Yeah, calling and raising very well both might be +EV, i guess we gotta decide which has a higher expectation.

If rocky is a good player though, is he more likely to be betting the top and bottom of his range? And if so, i imagine this widens the EV gap between calling and raising, as he's not going to call with his bluffs, nor fold as much of his value bets.

And if anyone wants to throw out a hand range here, i'd really appreciate it. i think we can all do the math or at least reasonable EV estimates given certain parametes, but i really would like to know what others thoughts are on the types of hands rocky (or any "good" live player)would play like this.

[HOWMANY]

What does Rocky look like? There is only one Vegas guy that I've played with there that I know of but he doesn't look like a Rocky and against him I would c/r this river before I'd ever think of c/f but I would just bet myself almost always.

[mike l.]

"IIRC from a post of urs a while back, he was over aggro, but a reasonable hand reader."

that's not him. i dont think he value bets AT here but i could be wrong. i hope gonores or justin chime in...

[mike l.]

"was this a check intending to fold?"

do you think it looks that way to my opponent?

[mike l.]

honestly i dont see him ever folding a better hand to a c/r by me.