flop c/r

[HOWMANY]

I've actually always wondered how much specific people win/lose per hour because I think they play so terrible but the way they talk makes it seem like they are winning players "long term". I'm pretty cocky so at first I just assumed that a lot of them are decent winners when I'm not in the game and pretty much instantly become losing players as soon as more than 1 solid player enters the game because they are so easy to punish over and over to more than cancel out the mediocre decisions they make against the truly horrendous players.

A lot of them also play like every day (or maybe just the same days I play, I might be making a bad assumption on this one) so I originally thought they do okay despite lack of skill, but I know for a lot of them their longest sessions are when they are at their absolute worst and getting slaughtered, while their winning sessions where they are actually confident are super short, so there's a good chance you're right on this one.

[ShawnHoo]

mike,

This isn't my standard line in this situation, but I think it has merit if you've got a tight/solid image at the table, which you said you did.

Speaking of winrate, what do you think a decent 2+2'er can expect to average over the long run at 40/80 in LA? How about 60/120?

[DeathDonkey]

$100 and $150 an hour respectively.

-DeathDonkey

[mike l.]

a bet and a half an hour is the standard nowadays for a very good player up to maybe 60.

[mike l.]

so on the flop they both called my c/r. the turn was 5s. so i bet, bb folded, and fishy guy called pretty quickly. the river was a Tc. i checked, thinking i would probably call if he bet quickly, but reserving the right to fold if he did something that made me suspect i had been wrong in my read of him on the first two streets (he seemed really weak and obviously drawing to the flush). btw i did not expect him to bet, he wouldnt value bet a T or even a Q here normally, so either he had like the nut flush or was making some sort of rare fishy bluff...

[drbk2]

[ QUOTE ]
why either a flush or air? i could have the Ad or a Q as well. i might also have something like decent d and a 4 or 3 (at least in his mind, he probably doesnt know i would never play something like J4o for two chips). i would play a set or two pair this way as well btw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't say air. Your hand is not air. I was saying that from the big blind's perspective, I would think that you have a pair + flush draw type of hand, the Ad, a made flush, or something like your hand or 65 with a low diamond. Also, I don't really understand why you would play a set or 2 pair this way. The big blind knows that he has a calling station and a tricky player in the hand, so I think you run a pretty big risk of having the flop checked through if you decide to check raise two pair or a set.

[cgrohman]

Yep, either that or lead the flop is fine with me.

[sternroolz]

[ QUOTE ]
I've actually always wondered how much specific people win/lose per hour because I think they play so terrible but the way they talk makes it seem like they are winning players "long term". I'm pretty cocky so at first I just assumed that a lot of them are decent winners when I'm not in the game and pretty much instantly become losing players as soon as more than 1 solid player enters the game because they are so easy to punish over and over to more than cancel out the mediocre decisions they make against the truly horrendous players.

A lot of them also play like every day (or maybe just the same days I play, I might be making a bad assumption on this one) so I originally thought they do okay despite lack of skill, but I know for a lot of them their longest sessions are when they are at their absolute worst and getting slaughtered, while their winning sessions where they are actually confident are super short, so there's a good chance you're right on this one.

[/ QUOTE ]

If a by the book TAG makes decent table selection choices(ie avoids tough tables and avoids overly aggressive tables where typical TAG stuff doesn't always work so well), I think Commerce mid limits are easy enough that this player will beat those games for 1bb an hour or close to it. But any leaks....limping too often, playing a a few too many hands, passively playing hands pf OOP, etc can make this player a marginal winner or loser instead.

[vmacosta]

Mike,
This play works great (c/r in protected pot with a weakish draw on monotone, Kxx or Qxx board) when there's been a pfr by one of these mediocre players from late position.

In a smallish pot against a stubborn fish who likely has offsuit cards, one of which could easily be a diamond or pair, I'm not so sure. You having a tight image in the fish's eyes would help.

A case for folding could be made.

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

This is a hell of an expensive bluff for such a small pot, since you'll often need to follow up on the turn and the river. I can't say I like it at all.