something simple you can all use in live play

[mike l.]

yes i will call a three bet. i just dont see this player as being sophisticated/weird/thinking enough to just call the turn with the nuts after putting in 4 bets on the flop. i only lose to a straight and any straight that didnt raise the turn (second nut straight) isnt raising the river.

please dont say that maybe he was waiting to make sure the board doesnt pair. 20-40 players are not thinking enough to do that so that argument is completely invalid.

[mike l.]

the A might freeze him up even with something like two pair. didnt want to miss a bet. also didnt want to give a free card to something like pair/straight draw. i didnt know i was c/ring the river until he said what he said.

[goofball]

You always have him beat here and you're never getting 3bet. I'm not sure he finds a bet with QJ though.

[Nate.]

Mike --

Nice post.

First off, I might be able to fold to a three-bet. It doesn't really matter because it will almost never happen. Once I had a guy slow down with the nut flush vs. my straight flush on an unpaired board because he misread the board for a street and thought it was paired. Maybe he was preoccupied with his soup. I know you're not talking about super-senile old people here but it's live. Things happen. Sometimes the never-threebetting-without-a-straight thing takes priority over the never-not-raising-with-the-nuts thing. It's like infinity; there are magnitudes of never.

As far as "I'll just call," you're dead on. It means strength and I checkraise mercilessly whenever possible after this. Not only does it means strength, it often means f*ck-you, which is all the more reason to know he'll bet.

Joker -- you're right that lots of old guys are too passive to bet this. But they're generally not the ones that say stuff like "OK, I'll just call" on the turn. Also, I think you have an image such that old dudes would bet into you less than Mike (or me).

All right, that's probably enough for my first post udner the "Nate." persona.

--Nate

[vmacosta]

Guys,
This is a high percentage play because its based on a well-known tell--obviously if this was the internet or the guy had kept his mouth shut the correct play would have been to just bet the river.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
<font color="blue"> the river is a 5. i check intending to raise. </font>

You should also intend on losing to better hand often enough to where betting is better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I kind of agree.

I didn't really get where this guy would even bet. He's profiled as loose but I didn't see anything about aggression.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
please dont say that maybe he was waiting to make sure the board doesnt pair. 20-40 players are not thinking enough to do that so that argument is completely invalid.

[/ QUOTE ]

Some are. But this guy doesn't seem to fit that mold. But he also might not fit the mold to bet the river given how he played the turn.

I think you have to bet the river here. He doesn't have the str8 or he'd likely have raised the turn. You're betting the turn he's very likely to think his 2 pair, if he has that, just got counterfeited.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
the A might freeze him up even with something like two pair. didnt want to miss a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. This is also whey I'd bet the river. I mean, if he'll bet the river, why then wouldn't he have bet the turn?

b

[dankhank]

[ QUOTE ]

as for old guys and their passivity. baby boomers are old now and theyre not conservative in their thinking a lot of the time. theyre if anything over confident and overvalue their hands. they also think they are smarter than "kids". for the most part they are vastly wrong. bottom line: no longer assume old means weak or tight or passive, that stereotype has been old for at least 5 years now, maybe longer.

[/ QUOTE ]

not simple but i will use this

[mike l.]

i wasnt sure he would bet the turn that's why i bet. then when he said what he said on the turn i decided to c/r the river. what he said on the turn made me confident he liked his hand enough to bet the river.