A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio

[Josh W]

[ QUOTE ]
i like the idea of call-3 betting the flop normally, but since the pot is already huge and getting a better A out is so easy to do in this particular case/flop, i still like my flop raise as the best line.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought the same thing at first, but then I rethought it, and realized that there's really no such thing as a better ace.

See, since there is a small pair on the board and a King, if an ace comes, you'll chop against a AJ type of hand. So, it's not the ace that you want to fold, its the hands like QJs that decide to take one off with a backdoor flush draw or something. THOSE are the hands you want to fold.

I think.

Josh

[Bill King]

yeah, i like the flop line he suggested, but the turn raise is kind of a spew, and there is reasonably no way you can profitably call a 3-bet on the turn even if it happens 1 out of 5 times.

[rory]

I dunno who KMS is but you should 3-bet unless you know something special about them. If KMS had a boat not betting the turn is retarded because the flush draws will fold on the river if they miss but will call a turn bet. It's not like checking the turn with a boat is trapping anybody. Also KMS misses out on a lot of action if the SB or you show up with a 4 in their hand by not getting to bet-3-bet the turn if KMS has a boat. So, unless there is something about KMS I don't know, KMS called two cold on the flop with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and got there on the river. Since you were the BB KMS thinks you probably have a lower flush, since you would call with any two suited after the preflop action. I think you are ahead about 90% of the time here.

[rory]

The problem with your reasoning about 3-betting is that by the time it is two cold back to him on the flop, he has to think that somebody has at least a K, so there is no point in 3-betting to knock out the king on the flop behind him when there is probably a king that already raised in front of him, especially if KMS has a hand like J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] which, from the turn/flop/river action, he probably has.

He would have to think the SB doesn't have a K or a 4 and that mike raised without a K or a 4 on the flop and that someone behind him would fold a K to 3 cold and that nobody behind him has a 4 to make a 3-bet right. That is a pretty incredible parlay.

[mike l.]

"See, since there is a small pair on the board and a King, if an ace comes, you'll chop against a AJ type of hand."

wow im dumb.

[surfdoc]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i like the idea of call-3 betting the flop normally, but since the pot is already huge and getting a better A out is so easy to do in this particular case/flop, i still like my flop raise as the best line.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought the same thing at first, but then I rethought it, and realized that there's really no such thing as a better ace.

See, since there is a small pair on the board and a King, if an ace comes, you'll chop against a AJ type of hand. So, it's not the ace that you want to fold, its the hands like QJs that decide to take one off with a backdoor flush draw or something. THOSE are the hands you want to fold.

I think.

Josh

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an excellent point Josh but I think getting out other "better" aces that chop the pot is still worthwhile. This pot is big and I want it all if an ace slides off on the turn.

[SA125]

If I had KK I'd smooth call the flop and bet the turn when it's checked to me, fully expecting at least one call or maybe a c/r. What hands bet/raise that flop in a pot that big and then fold to a single turn bet there? He doesn't have KK.

What about JJ? Same thing. I'd bet the turn. Doesn't have JJ.

So what does he have? I don't know. You give no read of him but say but he's from Commerce and been playing here every day. He raised UTG and it's a family pot. Wow. 33-44? Maybe.

Verdict. Only 3 bet if you'll fold to a 4th bet which, in limit poker, is catastrphofic if you're wrong. So I'd call and be glad I caught, someone raised it for me and it held up. Or glad I saved 2 BB's.

[ihardlyknowher]

<drool>There is a 3/6 game with 7 to the flop for 2 bets where we are debating whether to clean up outs because people may call with just an Ace on a K44 flop?</drool>

[surfdoc]

[ QUOTE ]
on the turn if the sb bets again NOW you should raise. this looks like a very strong hand and you are now quite a bit more likely to fold out a K than the almost nil chance of that happeneing on the flop. you've managed to lay way worse odds given the bet size increase and have misguided the table as to your holding.

in a 3/6 lineup, id say the flop call turn raise line is probably best.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have been pondering this one a bit. Not knowing something about the SB and KLM is a problem, but if we are basically flying without reads we have a few assumptions we can make. First, if mike just calls the flop the hand will play in a completely different manner. We will usually have an idea about the strength of KLM's hand since he will have a perfect chance to raise and protect his hand with a decent king or AA. Obviously his range will be wider than that.

Now back to those assumptions. Players at this limit generally bet and raise until they are pretty sure they are beat and then they call (see mike, I was listening). Players at this limit also have the general idea that making big laydownws in limit holdem is not the way to get rich. Given these assumptions, I think your advice of raising the turn is very bad. You are basically advocating putting money in on the turn when our equity has changed for the worse (assuming we don't hit our flush) and hiding behind fold equity as the excuse. I think that folding out a king in a pot that will possibly be the biggest multiway extravaganza of the evening happens close to never. In addition, if the SB has trips and KLM folds the turn, we get 3 balled every time and hate ourselves passionately while we draw.

[mike l.]

very well thought out, im impressed.