Raises=aces n/c

[Phat Mack]

The discussion of pre-flop raises indicating aces in another thread reminded me of a funny 10-20 limit hand I played a couple of weeks ago. The two villians in this hand are off-duty dealers(ODD's). At the10-20 live game level, I'm inclined to respect pre-flop raises a little more..... Let's see how that works out for me.

I'm utg with AsAc2s3c. I bring it in for a raise; UTG+1 (ODD) re-raises; 2 callers (?); button folds; SB (ODD) caps; BB folds; all call.

At this time I'm thinking my aces are dead, but my low and flush draws are working.

Flop comes Ah5d7c (!). A good flop for me: top set, nut low. I figure the raisers must have been carried away with high hands. I plan to bet the flop and take it. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

SB bets (?!); I raise; UTG+1 re-raises; fold; fold; SB caps; call; call.

This is a little perplexing. My opponents must have a little piece of it. I plan to maybe split the low and take the high. Good plan. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Turn is Ah5d7c 10d. Action is capped three ways.

River is Ah5d7c 10d 2d! Check; check; bet; raise; call; call.

Utg shows QdJd8s4c for a flush to take high. SB takes low with his wheel-inducing 6543r. Ah dealers...

[Buzz]

Mac - Ouch! That's just painful. These guys are both playing hands that are questionable as starters, especially with this much pre-flop action.

But the main problem is your hand goes straight to Hell on the river.

From your perspective, after the turn 10 cards are perfect, 28 cards are fine, and only 6 are horrid. And then the river is one of the worst cards. Ugh. Painful!

If you think about it, when you have, say, eight opponents, they hold a total of 32 cards.
If you have no aces yourself,
C(44,32) is the number of ways none of them will have an ace. 21.09*10^9
4*C(44,31) is the number of ways one of them will have an ace. 207.66*10^9
6*C(44,30) is the number of ways they will have two aces. 689.73*10^9
4*C(44,29) is the number of ways they will have three aces. 919.65*10^9
C(44,28) is the number of ways they will have four aces. 416.71*10^9.

The total is 2254.84*10^9.

So most usually (71.3%), when you have no aces, your opponents will hold either two or three aces among themselves.

And those holding the aces may raise or not. If one of them raises, it usually means he is somebody with an ace or two. But maybe not.

Then on the very next deal, another opponent dealt a hand identical to the hand of the raiser on the previous deal might not raise with it. It just depends on the person who was dealt the hand with the ace or aces (or whatever).

Some of us will sometimes raise with a given hand and sometimes won't raise with the same hand.

As you know well, poker is a game of deception. People raise with all kinds of crap just to be deceptive.

I like your own reason for raising before the flop best. ("Because it's fun.")

Hope my numbers are correct this time, but never a guarantee. At least you know I'll always post a correction if I catch a mistake.

Regards,

Buzz

[knoll]

I can only give you my sympathy with this one. I think we all know how dealers play, AWFUL! Thank god they don't win everyhand, lol. Nevertheless, you had a preflop monster that flopped bingo. Just got a poor turn and hateful river. Hope the rest of that session went better for you.

Knoll