Fun w/ ATs

[The Dude]

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I c-bet this flop 3 handed 100%.

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Why?

[The Dude]

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Just curious how many outs you guys think you have here. I would calcualte between 5-6. I say 1 out for the backdoor flush, 3 outs for the gutshot

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wtf? 1 out for a nut bd flush draw on an unpaired board? Is this what you actually think or are you just saying that so that folding looks better?

[The Dude]

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I would bet this flop especially since it is obvious you had no intentions of folding to a raise back to you.

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I would have folded if it had gone bet-call-raise, or bet-raise-call.

checking through > paying 1 bet to see the turn > paying 2 bets to see the turn > folding, usually. How does betting help me?

[DeathDonkey]

I humbly submit that if you can't value bet this river you probably overvalued your outs on the flop.

-DeathDonkey

[BadBigBabar]

the dude, do you reckon that backdoor flush draws come in pretty often? i always figured they came in about 3-4ish percent of the time which i guess you could call 1-2 outs or so (2 if you figure on implieds), and i was always under the impression that we should count them as about 1-1.5 outs to be safe, since sometimes they come in and still lose to a paired board (although this is rare).

i certainly wouldn't consider a bdnfd to be somehow a strong holding, although i do agree with you that your bdnfd can be used in conjunction with the other parts of your hand to end up adding up to a modest draw. combined with your gutter and potentially tainted overs i'd give you several outs, although i find it hard to know for sure.

i think a range of 4-8 outs on the flop seems safe.

[The Dude]

In LA this would be an easy value bet, but there are plenty of people in Vegas who will check-fold hands like K8 on this river. That doesn't mean that I had fewer outs on the flop, it just means that my implied odds are very slightly worse.

[piggity]

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checking through > paying 1 bet to see the turn > paying 2 bets to see the turn > folding, usually. How does betting help me?

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Betting gives you the all-important fold equity, and helps narrow your opponents' hand ranges by starting the information exchange. As played, you're facing two bets on the flop with little to no additional information about the button's hand than you had after the preflop action.

[The Dude]

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Betting gives you the all-important fold equity, and helps narrow your opponents' hand ranges by starting the information exchange.

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This is exactly the kind of board where betting isn't going to give me any information at all.

[tipperdog]

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In LA this would be an easy value bet, but there are plenty of people in Vegas who will check-fold hands like K8 on this river.

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Well sure, but did you have specifiic reason to believe you were up against one of those people? Vegas also features many players who would call with far less than 2nd pair because the pot is big and the books tell them not to lay down marginal hands for one bet on the river.

I do think you missed a pretty easy river value bet.

[stinkypete]

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I humbly submit that if you can't value bet this river you probably overvalued your outs on the flop.

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even if you know on the flop that your T outs are good 90% of the time, valuebetting this river isn't necessarily correct.