love in 2 parts

[FoxwoodsFiend]

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Your hand is not that different from bottom set

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this is crazy talk

[Requin]

FF whats your plan on a blank turn if you c/c the flop? I'd almost always lead, so I can bet a blank turn and then be done.

[aislephive]

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what does everyone think of the flop lead?

i'm thinking maybe check/call might be better to see what develops...

because when anyone calls this flop lead i'm not really too thrilled. do you think we would be happy if BB folded and btn called the flop lead? would this change the future lines we took (for instance, make it more of a c/rai on the turn or something)?

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You probably shouldn't be thrilled about getting a call on the flop, but after somebody calls I would still expect to be ahead a ton of the time, except they usually have a lot of equity against us and we're lost on several turn cards. This is a pretty decent turn card though, although stuff like 46/68 is now ahead and there is a chance he was playing pot control with something like 56 which turned a boat.

TWP, if you're checking the turn for deception then are you calling down if the board doesn't go to crap? I don't like that because he really won't have anything he wants to bluff here with often enough to make checking an attractive option.

Also I think we can very safely fold to a turn raise here so I don't think pot control is a big concern. We can get away when behind and get value when ahead, so bet. If you check we lose as much if not more when behind and don't get hardly any value from worse hands.

[TheWorstPlayer]

well, i'd call if he DOES have something he wants to bluff/value bet worse here often enough to make calling +EV and I'd fold if he doesn't. but either way, I don't like a bet.

[aislephive]

[ QUOTE ]
well, i'd call if he DOES have something he wants to bluff/value bet worse here often enough to make calling +EV and I'd fold if he doesn't. but either way, I don't like a bet.

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If you check you should have a good idea how to respond to a bet. Obviously there are a ton of different turn cards, bet sizes, timing tells, etc. that could sway your decision one way or another. But generally you should have a sound plan on what to do if he bets the turn/river, as his tendencies directly affect the EV of a turn bet vs a turn check.

[fslexcduck]

if i checked it would most likely be to c/c two streets, which i wasn't prepared to do. i guess i just had a feeling he was calling with a monster here, and his shove only really makes sense with A8cc, T8cc, or the straight... and I think it's the straight much more often than a draw that picked up outs. Nothing else really makes sense for him to shove there IMO.

[TheWorstPlayer]

so why not c/c one street, reevaluate river, and maybe hit your 4 outer?

[invisibleleadsoup]

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Your hand is not that different from bottom set. Or top two.

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this is ridiculous!

she's behind any two pair hand and bottom set,which has to make a huge difference.i know there are a lot of situations where two seemingly disparate hands have effectively the same value,but i really don't think this is one of them.

[DJ Sensei]

flop lead is cool with me. It may lead to tough decisions, but really, any line does after you smoothcall aces and see a flop like this 3 ways. I like betting turn again, presuming that you'll hear from a big hand at that point, and checking puts you in the mystery zone from which you will probably have to pay off 2 streets. if he just calls again, you should be happy to get a bet in on the river one way or another.

[JooWish622]

FWIW, I think your line is completely standard. A turn bet is pretty standard here given the board, although I am not sure what Id say if you led the flop given your image. I may 3 bet the flop if raised given your image because QQ and KK would probably raise your lead on this flop.

Although I am not really sure what overbet pushes the turn. a 7 seems likely but at the same time slightly suspicious.
an overpair may have waited for the turn to push here as well, although I don't expect that a very large percentage of the time.

FWF writes:

hate the flop lead. board's so ugly and trying to go 3 streets of value is crazy when your hand really can't stand much action (especially if born2dog or whatever his name is puts in a raise at any street). i'd be playing for pot control and c/c here.

out of curiousity, why does leading the turn cause problems? is it because by betting and then checking a scare card turn, we give our hand away and seem weak (which we are). and by check-calling, we disguise our hand and our hand could very well be a draw so we are less likely pushed off the turn when a draw card comes and we check the turn with our AA?

Prior to reading this, i thought leading flops was the easy way to go since when we get raised, most of the time our hand is a fold. but here, it strangely seems like c-c often makes this hand easier to play. if we bet this flop, i can see a 3 bet being justified 100 bb deep.
-Joo