27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?

[darom03]

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DOH! if you're serious that would be really embarrassing lol.

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If you think he gives sound advise, advising a call with 89o in the BB as 2nd chipleader against the chipleader in the SB on the bubble, then yes, I am embarrassed.

EDIT: I am getting leveled here, am I not! [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[Insty]

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Btw Koreanbuffet I think that link is meant as a jopke...

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I didn't think it was a joke.
It did seem to be quite results oriented and willing to completely ignore the basis of ICM.

[ymu]

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The thing is that this has been determined to by a call by many players.
However a REC (Ranged Equity Calculation) says it is a fold.
Is there any extra information anyone could suggest that would make the calculations even slightly more accurate?

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What sort of extra information do you mean? Calling ranges for our UTG push if we fold this are obviously critical. Then we need reads on how the bubble is likely to play out to estimate how far different from ICM our true EV is:

a read that big stack will try to keep shortie alive, or not;

a read that big stack will open push ATC, or if not his open pushing range (ie will we get any/many pushes other than from UTG);

a read that the bubble will still be playing insanely tight if we get the big stack (seems likely, but depends on how big stack will respond to losing).

[Insty]

How about relative stack positioning?

1000 2000 2000 4000 seems very much different to 4000 2000 2000 1000

[ymu]

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How about relative stack positioning?

1000 2000 2000 4000 seems very much different to 4000 2000 2000 1000

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Yes - that's part of the considerations above. The reason we will probably only get to push UTG each orbit is the big stack to our right who we expect to be open pushing ATC. Shortie is in a much better position because this allows him to open push his button and his SB. Which, again, is why we would like to know whether big stack is likely to try to keep shortie alive (ie call him very very tight so he can abuse the medium stacks some more).