O8: buying the button

[Phat Mack]

[ QUOTE ]
• KhKd9c (pair higher than side card, rainbow, no low)

Hero was in the cut-off seat (one seat in front of the button) holding AKQJ with two spades.

Tricky Tony had posted the single blind. Two players in front of Hero limped. Hero limped too, as did Rick the Rock on the button. Thus five saw the flop for one small bet each.

Tony bet the KhKd9c flop, Sydney Sly called, and the next player folded. It was Hero’s turn to act.

How do you play here?

Hero raised.

Why? Several reasons: (1) Hero wanted Rick the Rock to fold in order to have position for the last two betting rounds. (2) Although either Tony or Sydney could already have a full house, Hero had a good drawing hand (and trip kings with an ace kicker if nobody made a better hand than trip kings. If Rick wanted to stay in the hand, let it be expensive. (3) Since Hero figured to scoop here a bit more often than one out of three, only two callers were needed for Hero to have favorable fresh money odds. Both players who had already contributed one bet this round were fully expected to call but not re-raise.

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I don't understand this raise. If Rick the Rock has a hand (let's say a Kxxx or a 99xx), he's not folding. Otherwise, he's dead money. A hand like AAxx has one out. A hand like QJTx has 3 Ts. Do we really want to discourage dead money from calling here?

It seems as though our raise will only drive out hands we can beat, or charge us a couple of extra bets to chase hands that beat us. Are we worried about runner-runner flush draws? Are we trying to define hands while it is still a cheap bet?

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand this raise. If Rick the Rock has a hand (let's say a Kxxx or a 99xx), he's not folding. Otherwise, he's dead money. A hand like AAxx has one out. A hand like QJTx has 3 Ts. Do we really want to discourage dead money from calling here?

[/ QUOTE ]Hi Mack – Good point. We will have a better idea of where we stand if Rick folds to the raise. (We will know Rick doesn’t have KXXX or 99XX). Would Rick call a single bet with anything less than KXXX or 99XX? Hard to say.

Without KXXX or 99XX Rick probably folds anyhow, even without the raise.

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It seems as though our raise will only drive out hands we can beat, or charge us a couple of extra bets to chase hands that beat us.

[/ QUOTE ]I think Hero is probably ahead here. But vulnerable. The trip kings need protection. We don't want Rick playing a pair (or two pairs) behind us and making a full house on the turn or river with us meanwhile not improving.
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Are we worried about runner-runner flush draws?

[/ QUOTE ]Vaguely. [ QUOTE ]
Are we trying to define hands while it is still a cheap bet?

[/ QUOTE ]Yes! We get a better idea of where we stand by noting the reactions of our opponents to the raise.

You make a good point. When we make a strong full house, we’d rather have an extra paying customer on the last two betting rounds than last position.

However, more often than not, (and by slightly better than 3 to 2), we’ll miss quads or a full house on the turn or river. And then it’s really nice to be in last position.

Buzz

[Phat Mack]

OK, Buzz, you make some good points. I would never have thought of raising here, but now I'm going to re-think the whole thing. Hero did get to lay his hand for free, which has been my pro-raising hobbyhorse on 2+2 for years. My guess is that it all depends on who has the button.

As always,

Mack

PS: Are you going to play the Orleans this summer?

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I would never have thought of raising here, but now I'm going to re-think the whole thing.

[/ QUOTE ]Mack - Each of your three opponents also has three opponents, including you. With a pair of kings on the board, an opponent without a king should figure at least one of the three of you has a king (or quads) about 55%. So that leaves nobody with a king about 45%. I don't think many of my Omaha-8 opponents know those numbers but lots of opponents (knowing the numbers or not) will bet a KK9 flop without a king, hoping that no opponent has a king. And lots of opponents (who are without a king) will call a suspected bluff after a KK9 flop.

You're right that you like them chasing without kings. (That's gravy when you improve to a full house). But at the same time, the kings need protection just in case they don't improve (and it's about 3 to 2 that they won't improve).

But although tens, jacks, and queens enable a straight, in this particular case they also improve Hero's hand to a full house, so that they might trap the player making the straight. ....And most of the danger of an opponent making a straight would come from somebody drawing between king and nine.

I don't know.... I still like the raise, but more as a value raise than to buy the button. Since two players have already put in one bet this round, they're likely to call the raise. Then although they're less likely to bet into Hero, they might (because of the size of the pot and their own investment) be more likely to stay in the pot for the next two rounds.

And I think you do get a better idea of where you stand by raising here. I always like to know where I stand.

[ QUOTE ]
Hero did get to play his hand for free, which has been my pro-raising hobbyhorse on 2+2 for years.

[/ QUOTE ]Yes.

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My guess is that it all depends on who has the button.

[/ QUOTE ]I agree that it's opponent dependent.

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PS: Are you going to play the Orleans this summer?

[/ QUOTE ]Not sure what you mean. I'll respond by p.m.

Regards,

Buzz

[Phat Mack]

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And I think you do get a better idea of where you stand by raising here. I always like to know where I stand.

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At first, I thought raising for information might be a good idea, but now I'm not so sure. Let's say that Hero does indeed raise, and Rick the Rock calls. What did we learn? And did we learn anything that will change our play of the hand? Let's say we raise, Rick folds and Tricky Tony re-raises. Are we going to get away from the hand? Our 9 or 10 outs still force us to call. Information only has value if it causes us to change our course of action, and I don't see much changing here.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say that Hero does indeed raise, and Rick the Rock calls. What did we learn?

[/ QUOTE ]Mack - Tony is more likely than Rick to try something fancy, but either Rick or Tony are capable of making a (phony) move. It's scary if Rick calls a double bet after this flop. It would look very much like Rick has the case king or nines full of kings. But then what do the other two opponents hold? There is only one missing king, and only one of them can hold a pair of nines!

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And did we learn anything that will change our play of the hand? Let's say we raise, Rick folds and Tricky Tony re-raises. Are we going to get away from the hand?

[/ QUOTE ]No, we're not going to get away from the hand. But Tricky Tony acts first. If Tricky Tony raises on the 2nd betting round then we're not going to raise on the 3rd betting round. If Tricky Tony checks on the 3rd betting round after having re-raised on the 2nd betting round, then we have to decide whether to take the free card or not. If Tricky Tony re-raises on the 2nd betting round, then it looks a lot more like he has a full house or at least a king.

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Our 9 or 10 outs still force us to call. Information only has value if it causes us to change our course of action, and I don't see much changing here.

[/ QUOTE ]Possibly there is no change. Depends on what our opponents do, how they react to the raise.

If Rick calls, then we suspect Tony doesn't have a king or a pair of nines. All three opponents can't have a king or a pair of nines! By raising, Hero puts pressure on his opponents. But yes, it would be scary to get re-raised; puts the pressure back on Hero.

Even though Hero probably has the best hand after this flop despite Tony's lead bet, raising here is a bold play. Bold plays are not without risk. There is a finite possibility an opponent has flopped a full house, or will make one with Hero missing. But there's a better chance an opponent will back into a full house (with Hero missing) if Hero plays passively here. The more I think about it, the more I like Hero's 2nd round raise.

Buzz