too weird or too good?

[Victor]

ok mike i think your play is good here and the point is that if you have good read on your opponents you can play more hands.

more of a descriptive educational post.

[7ontheline]

While I am nothing as a player compared to basically everybody else in this thread, this kinda sounds like an example of this:

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
with you kids everything has to be black or white. either monster tellrific read or straight up internet trained mathism. but that's not how real life is.

[/ QUOTE ]

in this hand you need a monster tellrific read because your hand is way too good to fold otherwise. if you're not almost 100% confident in your read, you have to call. the mathism says so.

[mike l.]

you need to go back and reread my other posts in this thread as they argue to the contrary. it's a mix of the two components.

[danzasmack]

The thing is this, you say you're unsure about your read. That's why you're getting 10-1 on your call. Because you're unsure.

Your black and white criticism of the commentary by the forum (which is understood) comes right back at your folding because you lose a lot in this spot.

If the question is, "can i do this ever?" then yeah that's fine, w/e. Sometimes when I play I will make a slightly -EV play if i feel like it will help me play better in the long run (that session) or i just want to avoid that spot all together. But as far as "is this winning poker" - i think no, it's not.

"you need to go back and reread my other posts in this thread as they argue to the contrary. it's a mix of the two components."

Simply weight your read and then it's all math again.

[daveT]

MikeI., I am totally with you on this.....

A few hands that I sort of remember...

Hero has 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the BB.

Maniac raised UTG, hero calls, maybe there is a caller, maybe not, who knows.

Flop [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] x

Whatever happened here, I don't really remember, but I do remember getting a strong sense that I was drawing dead to a bigger flush if I hit. Did I lay this down?? NO. sure enough I finish my flush on the river and get burned.

A few months ago, in NL, I get tossed two baby diamonds UTG and limp in. Deja Vu all over again. A bad player that will pay me off bets it out and I call, the odd part is someone behind me called. Once again, I get that "eerie" feeling, sure enough the river brings my precious diamond, and I get burned again. I sat there for something like three minutes contemplating the call.

Back to Limit. Hero holds AJs UTG, raised, a few cold-callers. Flop brings me the beautiful ace. I bet villain calls. I friggen knew he was setting a trap. Did I stop betting? NO.

Sure enough, he flips up AK. Most of these hands happened a year ago or more. Nowdays, if I have a "strong" read, I follow it. I am pretty sure I have no chance of winning, and even if I do have a sliver, the math tells me to fold, or heaven forbid, check my top pair.

Alas, so many people will tell you that the math tells you to continue on, but there is so much more than pot odds, pot equity, or reverse implied odds. Somehere in hard core GT land, there is some sort of justification for folding.

Yep, these are ever so important hands, these marginal situations that there can't possibly be a right or wrong from a passive observer, but to those that where there, wrong or right is as clear as black and white.

The best high stake limit players probably deviate quite often from what is classified as optimal strategy. And why isn't there any good No Limit books? Because optimal strategy must go out the window for a player to succeed, and these kinds of hands are what separates the good from the bad, the merely good from the best.

So in final thinking, MikeI., are you suggesting that the forum should continue like:

So, any way, I have KK on the button and the CO raises. I reraise and have a really bad feeling. Whatever I call.

The board doesn't help me, and the CO bets again. I don't what to do, but I can't fold, but I really have this effed up feeling, somehow, I know the CO is super strong, what should I do now?

Logically, we can't have this happen, it is too messy.

[mike l.]

"Logically, we can't have this happen, it is too messy."

yet in live poker that's precisely what happens. and it is messy.

[andyfox]

There's ESP, which is hogwash, and there's analysis. When you have two small diamonds and two diamonds come on the flop, you have to figure in the possibility than your opponent has a bigger flush draw. "Having a feeling" doesn't cut it.

In Mike's case, he had the board and his opponents' actions, and their body language to make his judgment.

In your A-J, A-K hand, is it possible villain had A-K? Sure. Is it less likely he does because he didn't 3-bet pre-flop? Sure.

Sometimes the "feelings" we have involve something we can't put our finger on--the way an opponent bet, his body language, the position of his hands, a look in his eye. But sometimes it's hogwash, and without rigor we can be led astray.

We sometimes hear about a particular poker player's "uncanny" ability to put his opponents on a hand. There's nothign uncanny about it. Those who rely on uncanniness would be better off not doing so.