Caesars 2-5-10: KK vs. Dr. Amir

[soah]

the chance of an ace flopping is significantly lower if your opponent has one

[slik]

On what basis do you assume someone has exactly 1 Ace? Even with this optimistic assumption,
1-[(46/49)(45/48)(44/47)] = 0.176

[soah]

because if our opponent doesn't have an ace then having an ace on the flop doesn't cost us the pot

[Jay Riall]

If opponent has an Ace its around 18% and if he doesn't have an Ace its around 24%.

[DrMagic]

You have KK vs a live donk who likes to stack off light.

[Roy]

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You have KK vs a live donk who likes to stack off light.

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[censored] genius.

[TrueBritt]

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I just looked it up, and apparently there is only an 11.67% chance of an A flopping without a K.

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This can't be right. Probability that an Ace flops given that you have KK is 1-[(46/50)(45/49)(44/48)]= 0.225. I can't see this number being divided in half by including the times you flop a set.

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Oops. You're right.
P(overcard)=22.55%
P(no set)= (48/50)(47/49)(46/48)=88.24%
P(overcard and no set)=(.2255)(.8824)=19.9%

That's what I get for trusting Ken Warren's calculations.

19.9% chance of flopping an ace and no set when I have KK is uncomfortably high to put in >40% of my stack and then fold if he bets. So then maybe shoving preflop is best after all...or commit to the pot preflop but put the money in in two steps, regardless of what flops?

[yoshi86]

I flatcall here and CRAI most flops vs this guy

[AAismyfriend]

If you raise to 1k-1200 here and he flats it, he probably doesn't have AK and you should not ever be folding an A high flop IMO. When you stick in a big 4 bet here you're getting the rest in one way or another every time I think. A high flops get interesting because he will either be really scared of it, or could possibly try turning a lower PP into a bluff to get you off KK/QQ, so when the A flops i'd likely slow down and hope he bluffs at it, instead of sticking it in yourself.

[slik]

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I just looked it up, and apparently there is only an 11.67% chance of an A flopping without a K.

[/ QUOTE ]

This can't be right. Probability that an Ace flops given that you have KK is 1-[(46/50)(45/49)(44/48)]= 0.225. I can't see this number being divided in half by including the times you flop a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops. You're right.
P(overcard)=22.55%
P(no set)= (48/50)(47/49)(46/48)=88.24%
P(overcard and no set)=(.2255)(.8824)=19.9%

That's what I get for trusting Ken Warren's calculations.

19.9% chance of flopping an ace and no set when I have KK is uncomfortably high to put in >40% of my stack and then fold if he bets. So then maybe shoving preflop is best after all...or commit to the pot preflop but put the money in in two steps, regardless of what flops?

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I would only push if there was a reasonable chance to get called. You want to raise an amount that makes calling for him incorrect, even if he stacks you postflop. I would venture to say that this would be a raise to about 1500 (this pretty much assumes that he has an ace and that you pay him off if he hits) but you can do the math if you want something more exact.