Caesars 2-5-10: KK vs. Dr. Amir

[TrueBritt]

Caesars Palace 2-5 game with a forced straddle
Villain is Dr. Amir Naseeri, the superdonk from HSP. He's super-loose-aggressive, and he knows I'm a pro.
I have $2600. He has me covered.

Amir limps UTG
Everyone folds to me in SB
I raise to 60 with KK
BB calls
Straddle calls
Amir reraises to 450

With AA, I would reraise to 1000 and shove any flop (or, if the flop was uncoordinated, I might check the flop and shove the turn).

With KK, however, I am concerned that an A might flop, and then what do I do?

Is this a valid concern, or should I play KK the same way I play AA here?

[TyFuji]

i like the 1k/shove line. But is there better? What kinds of hands do you think he could have here? Would he talk himself into calling with 88-QQ if you just shoved (thinking you have AK)? I'm just thinking that you lose some value vs. TT when an over flops, AK when he whiffs, etc.

I think the hand comes down to what his calling range is pre vs. post flop. I don't think you get a lot of value from him postflop unless he outflops you.

Another thing to remember is that there's a very small chance of an ace flopping in the first place, and considering the action it is likely that there are only 2 left in the deck. If you like the 2 stage shove enough with AA, I don't think there's enough of a difference with KK all things considered.

Are you shoving AK, QQ, JJ here?

Sorry for the long response/all the questions. This is a very interesting spot

[TrueBritt]

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i like the 1k/shove line. But is there better? What kinds of hands do you think he could have here?

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I think he could have almost anything.

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Would he talk himself into calling with 88-QQ if you just shoved (thinking you have AK)? I'm just thinking that you lose some value vs. TT when an over flops, AK when he whiffs, etc.

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I think he might call a shove preflop with QQ or AK.
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I think the hand comes down to what his calling range is pre vs. post flop. I don't think you get a lot of value from him postflop unless he outflops you.

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I think if he flops an overpair he'll call my shove.

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Another thing to remember is that there's a very small chance of an ace flopping in the first place, and considering the action it is likely that there are only 2 left in the deck. If you like the 2 stage shove enough with AA, I don't think there's enough of a difference with KK all things considered.

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I guess you're right. I just looked it up, and apparently there is only an 11.67% chance of an A flopping without a K. Given that, I guess I should just play it the same way as AA. What do I do, though, when an A does flop? I've already put >40% of my stack in. That's what makes it so hard.
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Are you shoving AK, QQ, JJ here?

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Not for 2600. With 1000, I probably would.

[TyFuji]

Okay, since your assessment is that his range preflop is wide, the 2-stage approach is fine.

My thinking is that if he would call a shove often preflop but not postflop, you shove immediately. if he would fold to a shove often preflop but stack off postflop if he flops tptk, middle overpair, etc then you get more value from him with the 2-stage approach (assuming he's never folding to your 1k repop).

If an ace flops you're going to have to assess based on his action/the other two cards on the board. Say the flop is A27r and you check to him. WIll he shove 88? 87s? air??? I wish I had seen the episode with him in it, since I really have no idea what kinds of moves he would be liable to make. I guess if he's going to limp/repop with lots of hands he will prolly shove often when checked to.

[slik]

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I just looked it up, and apparently there is only an 11.67% chance of an A flopping without a K.

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This can't be right. Probability that an Ace flops given that you have KK is 1-[(46/50)(45/49)(44/48)]= 0.225. I can't see this number being divided in half by including the times you flop a set.

[soah]

the chance of an ace flopping is significantly lower if your opponent has one

[slik]

On what basis do you assume someone has exactly 1 Ace? Even with this optimistic assumption,
1-[(46/49)(45/48)(44/47)] = 0.176

[TrueBritt]

[ QUOTE ]
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I just looked it up, and apparently there is only an 11.67% chance of an A flopping without a K.

[/ QUOTE ]

This can't be right. Probability that an Ace flops given that you have KK is 1-[(46/50)(45/49)(44/48)]= 0.225. I can't see this number being divided in half by including the times you flop a set.

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Oops. You're right.
P(overcard)=22.55%
P(no set)= (48/50)(47/49)(46/48)=88.24%
P(overcard and no set)=(.2255)(.8824)=19.9%

That's what I get for trusting Ken Warren's calculations.

19.9% chance of flopping an ace and no set when I have KK is uncomfortably high to put in >40% of my stack and then fold if he bets. So then maybe shoving preflop is best after all...or commit to the pot preflop but put the money in in two steps, regardless of what flops?

[yoshi86]

I flatcall here and CRAI most flops vs this guy

[slik]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I just looked it up, and apparently there is only an 11.67% chance of an A flopping without a K.

[/ QUOTE ]

This can't be right. Probability that an Ace flops given that you have KK is 1-[(46/50)(45/49)(44/48)]= 0.225. I can't see this number being divided in half by including the times you flop a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops. You're right.
P(overcard)=22.55%
P(no set)= (48/50)(47/49)(46/48)=88.24%
P(overcard and no set)=(.2255)(.8824)=19.9%

That's what I get for trusting Ken Warren's calculations.

19.9% chance of flopping an ace and no set when I have KK is uncomfortably high to put in >40% of my stack and then fold if he bets. So then maybe shoving preflop is best after all...or commit to the pot preflop but put the money in in two steps, regardless of what flops?

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I would only push if there was a reasonable chance to get called. You want to raise an amount that makes calling for him incorrect, even if he stacks you postflop. I would venture to say that this would be a raise to about 1500 (this pretty much assumes that he has an ace and that you pay him off if he hits) but you can do the math if you want something more exact.