Super Tuesday pf spot

[Cornell Fiji]

Hero is down to 1800 after a bad two barrel bluff (with a whiffed 56s) into the nuts. Other than that I have been very tight and had probably only played 6 hands in the first 1:15 and had only shown a soft played TT on a Jack high board.

Villain has been fairly aggro opening a few more pots than the avg player even after he got short stacked. However, he had not gotten too out of line.


Villain (CO)- 2000
Hero (Button)- 1750
SB - 3200
BB - 3500
Avg Stack - 3500

Hero has ATo

Blinds 50/100

Folded to villain who raises to 300, hero...?

[curtains]

Allin definitely, no doubt if they have been aggressive. Not close at all IMO.

[curtains]

Put him on this raising range for example:

22+,A7o+,A2s+,K9o+,K8s+,QTo+,Q9s+,J9s+, T9s+, 98s

and then assume he calls your allin with:

66+,ATs+,AJo+

That's just random estimation, of course they may easily call with more, such as KQs, 55, but this is a reasonable way to start.

Now if you come up with ranges like this you can calculate your EV pretty much, just ignore the fact that a blind can overcall, and consider that if it's a close decision you should probably fold due to this factor.

I of course haven't done the math, but I'm sure it's a very valuable situation to do so, as it should really do a good job of answering the question. So someone please do it, and adjust ranges as you feel necessary [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Could be raising looser, could be tighter...not really sure.

[curtains]

Ok couldn't help it, did the math very quickly. The numbers are rough so forgive me if I'm off by a bit.

For those who are wondering, we have 32.1% equity against this calling range (66+,ATs+,AJo+). We have 34% equity if we add 55 and KQs to the mix, which I think is a pretty reasonable assumption. I calculated that we have 33% equity when called, since they will actually call slightly more than 1/3rd of the time (but v slightly), and to offset overcalls a bit.

Offhand it looks to me like they would call about 1/3rd of the time. The following range:

22+,A7o+,A2s+,K9o+,K8s+,QTo+,Q9s+,J9s+, T9s+, 98s

they will have 22.7% of the time and the following range:

55+,ATs+,AJo+, KQs

they will have 7.8% of the time. Thus about 1/3rd of their raising hands, if you believe the ranges I threw out there.



So we'd win 450 6/9ths (+2700)
Lose 1750 2/9th (-3500)
Win 1900 1/9th (+1900)

Total of (+1100)

divided by 9 = (+122). Nothing gigantic really, but enough to push, even with the small chance of an overcall behind us. (I think itll happen maybe 5% of the time?)

So anyway I think my estimate that it's a clear push was ok, maybe slightly closer but still a push I'd say.

[Cornell Fiji]

Yea, I guess I should do the math and answer my own question...

I think he was probably opening a little tighter than curtain's range, maybe 22+/A7s+/A9o+/78s+/KJs+/QJo+ (16.4% of hands). Assuming he calls my push with AT+/66+ (8.9% of hands) I am 33.4% against his range...

So:
8.9/16.4 = 52.4%

.476*(450) + .524*(.334*1900-.656*1750) =

214.2 + .524(634.6 -1148) =

214.2 - 269.0 = -54.8

plus the chance of a call from the blinds that dominates me...

meh...

[curtains]

Im confused did you not include pairs in that range. Your range seems incomplete could you please repost? Do you honestly believe he's folding QTs and A8o?

Also I have that as 13% of hands, assuming they raise with 22+

I entered this range instead:

22+ ,A7s+, A9o+, 87s+, KJs+, KTo+, QJo+

I dunno to me seems a bit tight. Hard to imagine someone that you've described as raising a decent number of hands being tighter, easy to imagine someone being looser. I for example would raise every one of those hands in this spot without question. (ok maybe not 22-33)

[Cornell Fiji]

I did include pairs but forgot to type them in (now edited)... I am not sure if the avg unknown in this tourney is raising A8o here as short as he was... I was also trying to give more of a worst case scenario/devils advocate range but even against your best case scenario range the EV is not really huge given the 5-6% chance of an overcall that crushes me.

The sample size of hands was really small so I am hesitant to say that he was aggro because he pf raised 4 times in the 25 hands since he was short or because he splashed around a little more than the avg player when stacks were deep.

[VespaRally]

Yeah, with a (22+,A2s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,A7o+,K9o+,QTo+) CO opening range and a (55+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+) call-your-shove range, than your expectation is approx. 1.15BBs.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
I did include pairs but forgot to type them in (now edited)... I am not sure if the avg unknown in this tourney is raising A8o here as short as he was... I was also trying to give more of a worst case scenario range but even against your best case scenario range the EV is not really huge given the 5-6% chance of an overcall that crushes me

[/ QUOTE ]


I dunno if mine is best case. Im sure plenty of pepole raise any ace on the cutoff, but I have them raising only to A2o. Also I didn't include 87s or JTo in my range. I think the right answer is probably somewhere in between given your words about the player. Probably its ok to fold in that case.

[VespaRally]

If he raises: 22+,A7s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,A9o+,KJo+,QJo (17.9%)
And will call with: 66+,ATs+,ATo+ (8.9%)

You’ll get called 49.7% of the time

Your equity with ATo = 33.42%

EV = -0.37BBs.

Add (given the Ace in your hand) the roughly 4% chance someone wakes up with JJ+ or AQ+ and this makes this pretty marginal either way. You should probably err on the side of caution though, based on these assumptions.