LO8: turned boat

[jba]

five way limped pot and I have AJ33

flop is 953
blinds check, I bet, two folds, blinds call

turn is 9
sb bets, bb raises, ???

[Buzz]

JBA - Ugly situation.

SB comes alive on the turn and bets the turned pair of nines. Then BB applies the pressure.

I wonder if these two are playing as a team.

In any event, it's very difficult for Hero to continue.

Fold the hand, quit the game, and watch these two for a while.

Buzz

[MaxRaises]

Fold or make the crying call (and lose all your MONIEZ)

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
I wonder if these two are playing as a team.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's not a concern for a bunch of reasons, but I hear what you're saying.

I'm more interested in fold vs. call.

best case scenario:

- I'm up against two nines
- a little more than half the time no A/2/4/6/7/8 slides off (?). it's almost a guarantee that one of them has some kind of low draw right?
- if they both have nines I have to dodge somewhere around 18 outs but they overlap some so what, 12-15 or so? I'm not even sure how to figure this.

[Buzz]

JBA – From the information given, it’s impossible to tell if BB is bluffing or not. (Ditto for SB).

Somehow you have to determine why BB has raised. Is it to get you out of the pot (possibly because you have folded to a similar betting pattern with this kind of board in the past)? Or is it to extract the maximum with a strong hand?

I think BB has raised for one of those reasons, but from the information given, it’s impossible for me to tell which. You may have a better idea yourself, based on BB’s play on past hands.

BB’s betting pattern here may have to do with his own cards or it may have more to do with the board and what cards he thinks you’re most likely to hold. For example, <ul type="square">You didn’t let us know what suits the cards on the flop were. If there were two cards of the same suit, BB could figure you possibly for a flush draw. Then when the board pairs, BB could figure you have to hate the possibility of being up against a full house. BB then raises to knock you out of the hand. Maybe you don’t play hands with nines, or BB figures you’re very unlikely to be playing a starting hand with a nine, so that BB feels certain that you don’t bet the flop because you can use the nine to make a five card winning hand at the showdown. But you did bet the flop. Maybe BB knows you don’t bet the flop without some sort of decent flop fit. But what could that be, if not including a nine? A flush draw or a straight draw? If so, you have to hate the nine. So BB, possibly with nothing much, bets to apply enough pressure to knock you out of the hand.[/list]Or there is a possibility BB actually has a fit with this 3-5-9-9 board.

Assuming they are playing independently and both possibly wet behind the ears, they could be strictly playing their own hands. They have both posted a blind and might have almost anything. They both check/call the flop. Did they do that because they fully expect you to bet it for them? Did they do that because they have good draws? Did they do that because they are calling stations? I don’t have a clue from the information provided. But you should at least have a clue.

Since two opponents folded after the flop there is a slightly greater chance than random of SB and/or BB having a fit with the flop. Or maybe SB and BB don’t know how to play this game very well and are chasing with trash.

Maybe one of them was chasing with trash but really is a rather good poker player who figures you for a weak/tight player and who tentatively plans to put a move on you later in the hand if the opportunity to do so arises. And now the nine pairing the board on the turn provides that opportunity.

If more than just the five of you were originally dealt cards, there’s a slightly enriched chance of encountering some cards, particularly aces, both in the hands of your opponents and in the river card. But I know of no way for me to deal with that. Best I can do, off the top of my head, is make the board a rainbow and simulate three times:
• 1. using your hand for you and random cards for SB and BB. One hundred thousand separate deals. Your full house wins 75355 times and improves to winning quads an additional 2161 times. Your full house loses 22451 times and you make quads but lose an additional 33 times.
• 2. using your hand for you, a nine plus random cards for one opponent and random cards for the other. One hundred thousand separate deals. Your full house wins 47346 times and improves to winning quads an additional 2162 times. Your full house loses 50333 times and quads loses 159 times.
• 3. using your hand for you, and a nine plus random cards for each opponent. One hundred thousand separate deals. Your full house wins 32337 times and improves to winning quads an additional 2294 times. Your full house loses 65369 times.

But what we don’t know is if an opponent already has a full house. Either one or both of them could have made a full house on the turn.

Assuming BB knows how to play poker well, and assuming you are a tight player, it’s possible BB has nothing and is simply trying to force you out of the hand with the double big bet. SB could have either trip nines or a full house, or could be trying to steal the pot or set up a steal if the river is not a low card.

There are various other possibilities. People sometimes do strange things at poker tables, sometimes because they don’t know any better, and sometimes because they’re trying to be deceptive or tricky.

Buzz

[jba]

great post

I know I didn't give great reads. both of these players recently sat down and most of the hands I've seen them play were stud8 hands. sb is aggro and bb is relatively passive, but these two know each other well and bb would most definitely raise A9 or nines full, probably K9, and maybe Q9 here. sb could just have a 9 - can't have nines full because he didn't bet the flop imo.

not sure why you think the rainbow board matters that much? just because they might be putting me on a flush draw and I'm more likely to raise here? fwiw it was a rainbow board.

do you have software that performed those calcs for you or are you doing them by hand? #3 in particular is very useful as I think it is the most likely scenario. Can you calculate my equity vs a nine plus two random lows and a random card for each opponent?