10NL - 33 flops set, but tricky spot

[Surf]

Hey Akak,

pf + flop are fine. On the turn the pot is $2.20 ($3.20 when we bet) and villain has $6.25 left. Either we expect villain to pay off with a wide enough range that we want to get him allin, in which case we need to pot the turn and "shove" river for his remaining ~$4, or we want to pot control the turn and ck behind to make sure we don't double him up when he has a straight.

It's difficult to know when to change one's expectations for the hand. On the flop we're 100% steaming ahead in "Lets stack him!" mode, but once the turn hits we probably only want one more modest bet to go in against most players. His min-cr looks very much like a straight, the classic bad-player pot-build move.

My one concern would be that because you bet so small on the turn he does not put you on a straight, and is melting down with some bizarre 1pr/2pr hand. Checking the turn saves us f rom this spot, because we can call a river bet/bluff confidently b/c the pot is still only $2.20.

The best part about checking behind the turn is that you will still stack him the times you fill up and he has a straight, since he will not put you on a set. He'll value-bet the river and you can raise him allin and he will crying call.

Surf

[akak]

Surf,

Wow, great analysis and very enlightening. I've never considered pot control checking behind-type stuff with hands greater than top pair, but here it is perfect. On the turn, my commitment decision should have changed, and I should have been concerned with keeping the pot small.

As played, do you fold the river? If an Ace hadn't dropped I probably could have layed it down, but the likelihood that he just hit 2pr with A7s or something like that combined with my pot odds convinced me to call.

Also, what forum are you a mod in?

[Surf]

[ QUOTE ]
As played, do you fold the river? If an Ace hadn't dropped I probably could have layed it down, but the likelihood that he just hit 2pr with A7s or something like that combined with my pot odds convinced me to call.

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As played I fold the river, though I'm not thrilled about it because our tiny turn bet may have convinced him to do something irrational. if he were $2.50 shorter I would probably cry-call.

The A is irrelevant since the only way for him to make 2pr would be to bluff-min-cr the turn with a split Ax 1 pair, which i think is pretty unlikely.

I'm a mod of Mid-high shorthanded limit.

Surf