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  #1  
Old 11-17-2007, 12:45 PM
ocklind ocklind is offline
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Default Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?

I recently made a post that received some very quick "why is this even a thread" answers, which at first glance seemed entitled. But I wasn’t too happy with the answers and with no full analysis I decided to give it a shot. And when I thought about the hand, those people who answered might just have been a bit too quick analyzing the hand and my play.
I’m going to break this hand down and give you my analysis on it, and hopefully get some good feedback. If you think my analysis sucks or is just more suited for 25/50(hehe!) or 0.5/1 please say so and be constructive.

Circumstances

My opponent is running at 17/13 over 4200 hands which tell me his stats should be fairly accurate, I could see him playing from 16/12 to 18/14-ish with only 4200 hands on him though. This also obv depends on his mood but we got to assume it’s kinda accurate.
His flop and turn AF is 3.7 respectively 4.5. So he’s also an aggressive player.
My analysis is based on him being a good player and that he knows I am a good player both statements should be true for regulars at 5/10.

The hand

Party Poker, $5/$10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

CO: $1,309.50
Hero (BTN): $1,510
SB: $512
BB: $1,000
UTG: $955
MP: $1,131

Pre-Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $40</font>, CO folds, Hero calls $40, SB calls $35, BB folds

Pre-flop in this position I think he will play 22+, AJo+, ATs+, KQo+ and some bigger SCs, like T9s+ and also suited broadways, and mix it up with the occasional 64s etc. In PokerStove this makes up 12,8% of all hands in Hold’em and I think that sounds fairly accurate. Leaving the deviation in his range for some other SCs.

Flop: ($130) J 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">MP bets $99</font>, Hero calls $99, SB folds

I think he will cont-bet this flop all day long with his flop AF and his bet sizing doesn’t tell us much either. Now we go into level 2 thinking: he knows I will not float here with air, because his perceived as tight, but especially since I have one player to my left, who hasn’t acted yet. So from his POV I got to have a hand here or at least a gutshot with overcards. I can’t put him on any hand yet but he could put me on a range of hands that could look like this:
KQ, 55, 99, TT, JJ, QQ, T8s, JTs, QTs, QJs, KJs, AJ, and T8s. He knows that he’s perceived as tight so he could expect me calling him more with high pairs when he raise from early positions and also just call him on that flop with those, aka slowplaying.

Turn: ($328) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
MP checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $210</font>, <font color="red">MP raises to $600</font>

Versus my range, how many hands would I actually fold here if he bet? With T8s, KQ, 99, JJ, 55, QQ, QTs and I continue for sure. And maybe also with JTs,KJs,AJ. I continue to play, some hands due to his high turn AF. So when he second barrel he gets TT and most likely JTs to fold and maybe also KJs and AJ. So that sounds like a bad move if he’s got one pair/air. Furthermore when he checks and I bet he got to think of a hand that bets here, let’s say I bet KQ, 55, 99, JJ, QQ, T8s and QJs for sure. I am more inclined to check here with KJs and AJ since he just checked, which seems suspicious. He's the type of player that would make a bad(imo) second barrel here with a bluff, so he don't and I can put him on a good hand/nada that won't call anyways if I bet. Lets say I check TT, JTs, QTs and a lot of the time KJs and AJ. I then only bet with a hand that has a one pair hand in a bad shape. So if he holds a hand like AA/KK/AQ/AJ he knows that if I bet and he check/raises he only beats KQ, which is really bad from his perspective. So with a hand like AA/KK/AQ/AJ he would most certainly bet/fold or check/call, which he didn't.

So his check/raise doesn’t mean AA/KK/AQ/AJ, well what else would he do this with? He knows I could very likely have turned a big hand here if I bet, so his check/raise looks really strong to me. My top two pair looks sweet, but we’re not beating one hand, are we? We get to chop with QJs and all other hands he check/raises here with has us crushed, like: 55, 99, JJ, QQ, T8s and KTs.

Appendix

He might interpret my bet as weak and C/R me because of that, but I don't think he will do if often, if at all since he won't be getting a fold here exept from KJs and AJ that might bet this turn for a free showdown and fold. Just because I bet kinda small doesnt mean I am weak, it's the fact that I DO bet that tells the story.

Conclusion

If he’s a good player, we should fold this, right? I'd love to hear your thoughts please.
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  #2  
Old 11-17-2007, 12:50 PM
jfish jfish is offline
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Default Re: Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?

pretty good post, you are thinking about your range and his in every point and that is all poker is. i think the fold is good.
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  #3  
Old 11-17-2007, 01:06 PM
thecortster thecortster is offline
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Default Re: Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?

Nice post, I like your thought process. Too bad I suck at folding so I probably just stick it all-in here.
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  #4  
Old 11-17-2007, 01:25 PM
cero_z cero_z is offline
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Default Re: Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?

Hi ocklind,

Interesting and well-thought-out post. Here are my thoughts:

Your plan to only bet hands that have one-pair hands in bad shape seems nitty and fairly bad to me, especially given that you think he'll c-bet the flop with all/nearly all of his range. If he perceives you as this nitty, then it seems like checking QJ would also be in order. But, I question whether he really expects you to check behind with hands like QT, JT, and draws that haven't connected yet 100% of the time. I think it's reasonable (though probably not optimal on this turn card) to be planning to checkraise the turn with an overpair after your flop call indicates that you have a good hand. I can see him checkraising some worse hands (AA, KK, AQ) for value vs. many players.

Furthermore, if hands with draws are firmly within your range, his checkraise is too small if he has a made hand other than a straight, or even a bluff. He is offering you ~3:1 immediate odds, and there's lots of money left behind. You claim that he knows that hands like JT and QT are not in your range, but I question this claim. It's your post, though, so what can we do? I guess a lot hinges on this read you have that he'd know you wouldn't bet those hands, but generally, I'm more inclined to believe that the small c/r here means he's not strong, rather than that he is and messed up the bet-sizing, or that you're drawing deadish.

I'd probably tend to call here with the intention of calling most rivers (blanks for sure, and re-eval on bad-looking cards) if he bets, and betting small if he checks. 3-bet Shoving the turn could also be decent if you were perceived as aggressive (which it doesn't sound like you are).

One more comment about checking the turn with AJ, KJ, QT, JT, T9, etc. You can't be reliably checking behind with those hands vs. many good players. This is because you will be giving a big chunk of their range a valuable free card in a fairly big pot. AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, AT, etc. would all love to see the turn go check-check. This isn't a big deal for you with Qs up, but with one pair+draw hands that you'll have far more often, it really hurts, when you can be winning a lot/collecting a nice price most of the time by betting. I agree that if he knows for sure how tightly you'll be betting the turn, then your Qs up fold is reasonable. But, if you just balance your range a bit by betting with most of the above hands, you can gladly bet Qs up and call a raise. This seems best overall, without going through the somewhat arduous math.

So to sum up, given your actual range, Qs up is near the bottom, but your turn-betting range should put Qs up near the top IMO.
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  #5  
Old 11-18-2007, 08:49 AM
ocklind ocklind is offline
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Default Re: Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?

ty for the feeback!

cero_z:

[ QUOTE ]
Your plan to only bet hands that have one-pair hands in bad shape seems nitty and fairly bad to me, especially given that you think he'll c-bet the flop with all/nearly all of his range. If he perceives you as this nitty, then it seems like checking QJ would also be in order. But, I question whether he really expects you to check behind with hands like QT, JT, and draws that haven't connected yet 100% of the time. I think it's reasonable (though probably not optimal on this turn card) to be planning to checkraise the turn with an overpair after your flop call indicates that you have a good hand. I can see him checkraising some worse hands (AA, KK, AQ) for value vs. many players.

[/ QUOTE ]

So if we bet all hands except TT and maybe JTs we give him a harder time making a good move? I like checking behind with QTs though since we most likely hand the best hand, and have the draw, but if we face a C/R we we won't really like getting it in here, since he will have us crushed.

So what hands do we bet here? KJ and AJ and check behind JTs, QTs, TT to not become to predictable? I thought we wanted to manage some sort of pot control with KJ for example?


[ QUOTE ]
Furthermore, if hands with draws are firmly within your range, his checkraise is too small if he has a made hand other than a straight, or even a bluff. He is offering you ~3:1 immediate odds, and there's lots of money left behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you misread our stack sizes, since we onlyhave 400 left to put in, and if he C/Rs to 600 we gotta get it in?

[ QUOTE ]
You claim that he knows that hands like JT and QT are not in your range, but I question this claim. It's your post, though, so what can we do? I guess a lot hinges on this read you have that he'd know you wouldn't bet those hands, but generally, I'm more inclined to believe that the small c/r here means he's not strong, rather than that he is and messed up the bet-sizing, or that you're drawing deadish.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he assumes I don't bet JTs here to keep the pot small and since I also have the draw, so I am not particualary afriad of giving a free card. He could expect me betting QT here but I still thinks he'd rather just bet his one pair hands then, like AA/KK/AQ and then maybe put in one more bet on a safe river.

[ QUOTE ]
One more comment about checking the turn with AJ, KJ, QT, JT, T9, etc. You can't be reliably checking behind with those hands vs. many good players. This is because you will be giving a big chunk of their range a valuable free card in a fairly big pot. AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, AT, etc. would all love to see the turn go check-check. This isn't a big deal for you with Qs up, but with one pair+draw hands that you'll have far more often, it really hurts, when you can be winning a lot/collecting a nice price most of the time by betting. I agree that if he knows for sure how tightly you'll be betting the turn, then your Qs up fold is reasonable. But, if you just balance your range a bit by betting with most of the above hands, you can gladly bet Qs up and call a raise. This seems best overall, without going through the somewhat arduous math.

[/ QUOTE ]

A good conclsuion, but what hands should I add to my range do you think Like my suggestions above? QT, KJ and AJ?
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  #6  
Old 11-18-2007, 09:33 AM
john kane john kane is offline
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Default Re: Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?

i read your reasoning and whilst definitely a good way to go about it personally i think your play is too passive.

i much prefer 3bet here pf, although obv depends on recent history (edit: in fact completely history dependent, as soon as i think a 3bet is worthwhile i'd do it, if ive 3bet him twice in last orbit id call), but still i generally think calling pf sucks vs 13% pfr in utg+1. maybe 3betting trash here and calling JQs is better than folding trash and 3betting JQs, but i just simply dont like calling a pf raiser when your on the button, kills your upper range (QQ+). meaning your reppable range is a lot smaller and his is a lot wider given he has made a standard pf raise, and this is never good.

as for turn, i insta shove, but again, as you rightly say it all comes down to ranges, but if your only getting called by better hands if you shove, and only being check-raised with hands that beat top 2, your not playing a mixed aggressive style enough imo. becuase if this is the case, then you are not utilising your tight image to your advantage.
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  #7  
Old 11-18-2007, 11:03 AM
JackAll JackAll is offline
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Default Re: Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?

I thought for a bit, and by the turn, his range for draws is very very low, and agree that he doesn't do this with AA/KK/AQ on this board if he is sane.

But - he could well do this with TT or a large range of air bluffs if you have been floating a lot tho...
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  #8  
Old 11-18-2007, 11:15 AM
MTBlue MTBlue is offline
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Default Re: Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?

No offense, but when some guy has an aggression factor that is 4.5 he is way way more likely he is either c/f this turn or c/r it.

This is a really trashy board to c/r if you are as tight as you say you are. I'd assume he was overplaying a hand that wanted a cheap showdown and said F* it when you bet.
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  #9  
Old 11-18-2007, 06:09 PM
ocklind ocklind is offline
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Default Re: Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?

[ QUOTE ]
i read your reasoning and whilst definitely a good way to go about it personally i think your play is too passive.

i much prefer 3bet here pf, although obv depends on recent history (edit: in fact completely history dependent, as soon as i think a 3bet is worthwhile i'd do it, if ive 3bet him twice in last orbit id call), but still i generally think calling pf sucks vs 13% pfr in utg+1. maybe 3betting trash here and calling JQs is better than folding trash and 3betting JQs, but i just simply dont like calling a pf raiser when your on the button, kills your upper range (QQ+). meaning your reppable range is a lot smaller and his is a lot wider given he has made a standard pf raise, and this is never good.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont really fancy a 3b here, since he often will call a 3b and then has me crushed! me not like, QJs is kinda like 65s, I'd rather see a flop and play him in pos, right? U still disagree here?


[ QUOTE ]

as for turn, i insta shove, but again, as you rightly say it all comes down to ranges, but if your only getting called by better hands if you shove, and only being check-raised with hands that beat top 2, your not playing a mixed aggressive style enough imo. becuase if this is the case, then you are not utilising your tight image to your advantage.

[/ QUOTE ]

You advocate betting also KJ, AJ, QT? Or you think I should add JTs and TT also?
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  #10  
Old 11-18-2007, 06:22 PM
ocklind ocklind is offline
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Default Re: Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?

[ QUOTE ]
I thought for a bit, and by the turn, his range for draws is very very low, and agree that he doesn't do this with AA/KK/AQ on this board if he is sane.

But - he could well do this with TT or a large range of air bluffs if you have been floating a lot tho...

[/ QUOTE ]

I really dont think he puts me on a complete float, since hes perceived as tight. He may C/R the turn w/ TT but since he gotta expect me to have a good hand if I bet, its kinda stupid of him to C/R.
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