Bellagio Cup ME: Hope he bluffs? Hope he hero calls? Cry?

[NoahSD]

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Am I missing something or could villain not easily have a flush here?

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He could, but not often enough to make c/folding good. So, the only thing we're concerned about is getting more money from hands we beat, since all the hands that beat us are getting the last of it anyway.

[imabigdeal]

I understand that we beat all of this opponent's range except a flush. It really seems to me that if we are going all the way though and accepting we're busted if he does have the flush, a check might be best as we could entice a bluff on the river... I still don't see as to why if we are just POSITIVE he has the flush we can't fold this hand, we still have over 50BB. But, oh well

[NoahSD]

We're not positive he has the flush.

[imabigdeal]

I know, but I just do not like pushing the river. I know villain likes to make hero calls on occasion, but our line looks like a very strong hand all the way ESPECIALLY if we push river. I can't see even this opponent calling our all in with anything less than a flush really, or like a sneaky straight, so I think checking is better and hope he tries to represent the flush and we can pick off a bluff.

[IWEARGOGGLES]

The hands you don't beat that I can see him having are like KJhh, KThh, and JThh really. 78hh?

I don't know I feel like he'd raise those hands on the flop.

Check/call I think. A shove might blow him off whatever [censored] hand he has and he also might bet the scare card.

God damn crazy swedes.

[Ansky]

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I know, but I just do not like pushing the river. I know villain likes to make hero calls on occasion, but our line looks like a very strong hand all the way ESPECIALLY if we push river. I can't see even this opponent calling our all in with anything less than a flush really, or like a sneaky straight, so I think checking is better and hope he tries to represent the flush and we can pick off a bluff.

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What hand could he possibly have got there w/ that could bluff?

[0evg0]

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I know, but I just do not like pushing the river. I know villain likes to make hero calls on occasion, but our line looks like a very strong hand all the way ESPECIALLY if we push river. I can't see even this opponent calling our all in with anything less than a flush really, or like a sneaky straight, so I think checking is better and hope he tries to represent the flush and we can pick off a bluff.

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What hand could he possibly have got there w/ that could bluff?

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Seriously.

Nath's post is exactly right that this guy has to be turning a TON of hands with showdown value into bluffs. Stuff like a rivered pair of aces.

Which is insane.

[NYWalker]

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Anyways, I raise 66 utg at 100/200/25 to 600 (effective stacks 23k). Swede calls utg+2, devilfish calls the bb. Flop comes Qh9x6h. I bet 1500, only the swede calls. Turn's an offsuit 8. I check, he bets 3k, I make it 10k with 11k behind...Steve

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Steve,
Before you raised the turn, what's your plan for the river if villain calls our turn bet? Did you plan to fold a heart river?

[registrar]

Is check-shoving the turn bad? I don't see much that matters not calling. Surely stuff that folds to the 10k you're leaving behind anyway, folds the river u/i anyway. I mean, yeah, he's swedish, but you're line looks crazy strong either way, especially given history and you're putting the rest in whatever (presumably - I mean we shove here, right?).

[0evg0]

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Is check-shoving the turn bad? I don't see much that matters not calling. Surely stuff that folds to the 10k you're leaving behind anyway, folds the river u/i anyway. I mean, yeah, he's swedish, but you're line looks crazy strong either way, especially given history and you're putting the rest in whatever (presumably - I mean we shove here, right?).

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c/shoving turn would be:

check, psycho bets 3k, steve shoves for 21k

so basically you'd blow him off like every draw (draw meaning pair + other stuff as well) which is like his entire range