Bellagio Cup ME: Hope he bluffs? Hope he hero calls? Cry?

[stevepa]

Villain in this hand is basically a crazy swede. Slightly different than most crazy swedes I've played with but still a crazy swede. He probably plays about 70/30 pf, calls a ton of raises, never reraises pf (has showed down some big hands he cold called). He's made 2 biggish hero calls and been right and has also made at least two psychotic bluffs. The best one is pretty sick:

Devilfish opens to 275 utg, swede calls in mp, sam grizzle calls behind him. Flop A43 with 2 spades. Devilfish bets 600, both call. Turn Ko. Devilfish bets 1500, swede makes it 4k and sam grizzle grabs tons of chips but then calls. Devilfish swears and calls. River's a complete blank, swede bets 9k, grizzle tanks for hours and folds. swede shows K5ss.

He also bluffed off like 20k in a hand I unfortunately missed most of but he overbet the river with a missed flush draw and got called by two pair. His hero calls included calling a pot bet by grizzle with A high and another pretty thin call. He rarely folds to cbets, mixing up raising and calling.

I haven't done much in the first 2.5 levels. I've opened a lot of pots and had a lot of them taken away by having cbets called/raised. I usually give up (he's won 3 pots off me in this time calling/raising my cbets). This level I've two barreled twice successfully but have shown no hands.

Anyways, I raise 66 utg at 100/200/25 to 600 (effective stacks 23k). Swede calls utg+2, devilfish calls the bb. Flop comes Qh9x6h. I bet 1500, only the swede calls. Turn's an offsuit 8. I check, he bets 3k, I make it 10k with 11k behind. He thinks a couple seconds and calls. River is the Ah. I...?

Steve

[curtains]

Screw the monkey and go allin. He almost surely has something, and he doesn't like to fold it seems. Since he almost surely has at least something I'd say that its a lot less likely he's going to bluff if you check.

[Ship Ship McGipp]

i don't see how anything but shoving can be best. might be best if effective was 35 ish

[Zimmer4141]

I think a shove is the best play by far. He's calling your shove with any 2 pair, possibly even a pair of Aces or Queens. Because he's shown himself to be a calling station, there's no point in even checking to induce a bluff. At no point do I even think about folding this.

[adanthar]

I don't think it really matters in the long run what you do as long as folding doesn't enter in anywhere.

[Confused1]

I think you have to push here. Folding is out of the question, I think, and he sounds like he'll call with more hands than he pushes with.

[Cornell Fiji]

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I think you have to push here. Folding is out of the question and he'll call with more hands than he pushes with.

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[stevepa]

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I don't think it really matters in the long run what you do as long as folding doesn't enter in anywhere.

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I talked about this with sirwatts afterwards and we went from easy shove to ^this^ back to shove again.

[NoahSD]

I don't see how you could say it doesn't matter when shoving gets money from a ton of hands that checking doesn't get money from.

[stevepa]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how you could say it doesn't matter when shoving gets money from a ton of hands that checking doesn't get money from.

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While I agree there are more than enough for shoving to be better than calling, I really don't think there are that many hands. I'd guess he shoves his better two pairs for value if I check the river, plus he likely(?) shoves a lot of them on the turn too.

Steve