Folding AK preflop with 7 bb's

[stevepa]

Live $2600 satellite to the WPT Championship. We're early enough that satellite considerations don't really matter, but at this point there's probably 150 people left, 39 seats, avg stack around 15k. I lost a pretty huge pot a little while ago to Johnny Lodden (see my blog if you care) and have 5600 chips at 400/800/75. UTG who's been tight fumbles with some chips and then minraises. UTG+2 who seems like a nit instashoves like 6k. I'm two after him and fold AKo?

Steve

[Clayton]

stack size of minraiser?

[Ansky]

Seems terrible, but since you and I are the same player, I suppose that means I agree.

[Bond18]

IDK, do live min raises mean the same as they normally do online from tight players?

[yellowdoyle]

Seems like the worst hand UTG + 2 is pushing is AK. So even if it went HU against him you may be behind. Add to the fact a tight player minraised UTG, I think I can definitely fold here.

I have you at 18% in a 3 way pot vs UTG (TT+, AQs+ but AQs is prob too loose for UTG) and poosher. Versus just poosher...31% (QQ+, AKs).

Most live players fold their big blind, even with antes, after you have shoved like 2.4bb's. So you probably have decent stealing opportunities, especially from UTG 1 and 2 (though pushing from EP will suck).

[stevepa]

[ QUOTE ]
IDK, do live min raises mean the same as they normally do online from tight players?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know, people don't minraise live ever. But it's almost certainly not something like AQ or TT, since seemingly everyone in that tournament will raise like 5bb's to protect them. At the time I really thought utg had a monster, and utg+2's range is like QQ+, AK, sometimes JJ. I had basically no idea how I'm doing against those range other than "not good". Turn's out I suck and utg had A9s, utg+2 had JJ.

edit: clayton, minraiser had like 15k

Steve

[NHFunkii]

I saw your title and was like WTF, then I saw it was a satellite and was like oohhhhh ok, then I saw your post and was like WTF

you need a waaaay better read than 'seemed like a nit' to fold this

[kniper]

utg+2's range is surely wider than QQ+ no? not to be RO, but surely hands like TT are in his range when u are this far from the payout no?

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
I saw your title and was like WTF, then I saw it was a satellite and was like oohhhhh ok, then I saw your post and was like WTF

you need a waaaay better read than 'seemed like a nit' to fold this

[/ QUOTE ]

My reaction exactly.

Pot-odds.

[chrismystero]

i think calling is best option