Raise Size NLTRN

[Nichomacheo]

Few hands in. Villain has 3-bet me preflop (I folded), and this is the first time he's raised postflop:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (2 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB (t1540)
Hero (t1460)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t60</font>, BB calls t40.

Flop: (t120) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t80</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t220</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to ?</font>

I shoved, figuring a raise to 550 or something looks stronger than a shove. Anyone do anything differently here?

[HokieGreg]

If you are only raising it should be 3 x his raise to 660 minimum or just shove.

[Nichomacheo]

Yeah, I guess thats the essence of the post:

Is raising to something less than shoving ever better than shoving in this spot?

[pokercurious]

I'm not sure I understand why you want to look strong here. Here's my take on what hands are most likely to raise here given they called a raise preflop: QJ, QT, 66, 99, 9T. Of course there are also 88, 77, 78 but against this overall range you have more than decent equity:

Board: 8d Qc 7s

Equity
63.51% ( KsKc )
36.49% ( QJ QT 66-99 9T 78 )

And that's assuming what's probably a really tight raising range. I'd imagine it's probably wider than this. It's a pretty dry flop, so villain might very well be making a play.

And if shoving looks weak, you can probably expect top pair to call you down.

If you raise to 550, do you fold to a shove? This question confused me - please tell me if there's something I'm missing.

[Nichomacheo]

The goal is to extract maximum value from my opponent.

So, I have three options really. Call, raise but not shove, and shove. I'm asking if raising without shoving is better than just shoving. Calling would only be better if I was sure he was bluffing a lot on the flop and fire again on the turn. This early, I don't have that information. Plus, if he does have a queen, there are a lot of turn cards that'll scare him into putting in more money. At least thats how I see it...

[HokieGreg]

No, he's not folding to a shove if he 4 bets. I think I can safely answer that for him. He is concerned about which play will get the most value out of villains hand.

I've had a lot of people call this 4-bet with worse hands, miss the turn, and then call bc they are committed when i shove the turn. Would they have just called a shove on the flop in the first place??? It's hard to say. It might not really matter that much as long as you don't 4bet to 660 sometimes and shove other times depending on the strength of your hand. Good players would be able to pick up on that.

[TNixon]

I think it depends on your opponent. Even if you're already 100% committed, and can't possibly fold to a shove, some opponents are more likely to get all the chips in if they have the opportunity to make the last move. ("oh, he can't *possibly* call this all-in, even if I'm behind)

I think a smaller raise is more likely to get some of the donktard gutshots to put all their chips in (people don't seem to *like* to fold gutshots, even for very big bets, but the occasional player will actually do so).

It could also be just a 7 or an 8 who thinks your bet is pure continuation, and fully expects you to fold. Who knows what those hands will do if you raise or push. If they're actually thinking enough that the raise is an information raise, I think they're more likely to fold to a push.

Of course, the problem here is that we don't actually know anything about the opponent. Some opponents with some hands are going to be more likely to push over a smaller raise, but fold if you push, and some will call a push, but fold to a smaller raise.

And I don't think I actually have any idea which type of opponent is more common, the blufftard who thinks he can push you off a hand even when you're already pot-committed (usually with the justification of "he looks committed, so he can't think it's a bluff), or the second-thinker who is more likely to attribute an all-in to a bluff or semi-bluff than to a real hand that has them crushed.

Of course, you're getting stacked by 2 pair or a set no matter what happens. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Nichomacheo]

Maybe. Maybe.

Good post TNixon.

[cwar]

I would be calling against 95% of villains here why do you think 3betting is better?

[tautomer]

I'd make it like 580 if I were raising but would probably just call and shove over his turn lead instead. Marginal hands are too easy for him to get away from if he's only got 300 or so chips invested in the pot and has to call 1200 more when you shove. Then again there are a lot of morons that can't fold to flop shoves with top pair so who knows.