3/6: Str8 draw with multiway action.

TripleH68 · #1 10-03-2006, 11:10 AM

PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Short reads on all players involved.
This table has been pretty loose preflop, decent play postflop.

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, CO calls, Button raises, 2 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (11.33 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, CO calls, Button raises, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, CO calls.

Turn: (9.66 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, CO bets, Button raises, UTG+1 calls, Hero folds?

Did I botch this one?
Often times the preflop discussion on these starting hands is: "+EV if you play excellent postflop."
Well...

JojoDiego · #2 10-03-2006, 12:16 PM

Preflop: Hmm, not me from MP2.

Flop: I don't think I like the bet. With that big pot and 4 opponents, you won't take it down with that bet, and there's no point trying to reduce the field either with your wimpy overcards.

Turn: I think that's an easy call. You're getting 14.66/2 with a clean OESD. Even if it's 3-bet behind you, you'll get 18.66/3. If capped, it's 20ish/4.

HoneyBadger · #3 10-03-2006, 12:25 PM

Don't bet the flop. If button bets and enough people call, you can still raise for value. But you can make that decision later with more information. I don't see much reason to protect your hand if you bet with the hope that button would raise.

SixForty · #4 10-03-2006, 02:03 PM

Preflop - a lot of people will tell you 86s is a little bit thin, but I do it a lot. It depends entirely on game conditions, you really like loose passive, and since you mention that the game is playing pretty loose preflop, I call.

Flop - open ended straight draw with a backdoor flush draw and two overcards. Man - that's a fantastic flop for you. Let's look at your outs.

Four 7's will give you the nuts, so all four are solid clean outs.
Four 2's will give you the second nuts. True, you can lose to 76, and you may chop with any other 6. But this is counteracted by the fact that you still have outs to beat either of those hands with a higher straight, and that on a 2345 board, any and all Aces will pay you off, possibly even raising so you can 3-bet and fleece them big time. So I count the 2's as four solid outs.
The backdoor flush is worth 1.5 outs. True it's not to the nuts, so if we want to discount it to only 1 out, that's fine with me.

You also have 2 overcards which, although dubious, may actually be outs here. So let's count them as "something". Basically, that means they are more higher than "nothing"

If we add all that up, we've got a hand worth 9 outs plus "something" - basically, we have more than 9 outs.

So a 9+ out hand, against 4 opponents, I'll win more than 35% of the time - I want lots of money going in on the flop if possible. So now I look at the best way to trap opponents. Given the position of the preflop raiser, there is one opponent between you and him if you bet, but there are two opponents between him and you if you checkraise. So my plan here is to check, and hope that the preflop raiser bets it, and if even one (hopefully both) of UTG and UTG+1 call, then I checkraise. If both fold, then I'm just calling.

Since none of that happened...

Turn - You are now getting 14.66-2 on a call. You've still got 6 clean straight outs, and 2 that may be tainted by the backdoor flush, but are probably good. But since you only need 6 outs at least to continue getting those odds, a call is necessary. Even if CO 3-bets, Button caps, and UTG+1 folds (which is worst case scenario) you'll be getting effectively 19.66-4, which is about 4.9-1 to call. If all your straight outs are clean (ie, no one has a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] flush draw) then those odds alone are enough to call.

Also, given the action so far, if you do hit, you can count on implied odds on the river. Button is not folding this hand, and CO probably isn't either. So you can count on probably 2 bets on the river.

So go ahead and call the turn.

HoneyBadger · #5 10-03-2006, 03:11 PM

I'm not as liberal with my outs as sixforty, but I agree with the overal idea.

You shouldn't count a backdoor flush draw as 1.5 outs, especially when it's not to the nuts. Count it as 1; this is examined in "hold'em on the come". You do get "commitment outs" as a club will make for a more profitable turn call, but 1 is generally good. The straight I'd value at "slightly over 7" It's not to the nut, but I suppose you're fine there. But the bottom end is only a single card straight. I'd neglect the overcards as you really don't want to see a 6. You also don't like your position that much. So that's 8 outs for me. 8 outs is a 1:2.2 and 9 outs a 1:1.9. So two additional players besides you is the break-even point for value betting. You'd like 3 more players to value bet. This is easier when you check the flop. Also, if everybody checks you can't dislike it that much. Problem is when button bets and there is only 1 caller. You'll have to decide between a break-even raise, or a profitable call and an extra player. I don't think you have to raise people out of this pot, tho if you can win with just an 8 that'd be great. You also need to worry slightly about someone holding 76, that'd make you drawing thin. You might just pass up this small edge and c/r the turn if you hit. But indeed, none of that happened, so it's all speculation.

On the turn you straight devalues more, it's only 6 outs now, 1:6.7. But now it's not about value, it's about implied odds. Pot odds are nonsense, it's about how many chips go your way in the end when you hit. How many? Well right now there's 14.6, and CO will call for sure. Plus it's safe to say you'll make at least 2 more bets on the river. So let's keep it at a conservative 17.6. That's 1:8.8, enough to call.

kaboshedx · #6 10-03-2006, 03:53 PM

I'm following most of your logic here except for I have no idea what this means, "8 outs is a 1:2.2 and 9 outs a 1:1.9."

I feel like I am missing something very important as to know when I need to value bet with a draw, i.e. how many players need to be in the pot with me.

ty.

HoneyBadger · #7 10-03-2006, 04:15 PM

That's for 8 outs with 2 cards to come, turn and river. The 1:2.2 simply means you have 100/3.2 % chance of completing your draw by the river. So in a way you own that much of the pot, and all bets that go in on the flop. If 4 bets extra go in, you own 4/3.2 of those extra bets. That's more than the 1 you put in. This is regardless of pot size.

But as you can see you don't gain that much, so don't start overdoing this. If you are in fact drawing thin to 76 a raise is a huge mistake (in the theoretical sense). So you have to be sure you are scooping in that pot that percentage of the time. I'm not such a fan of raising draws for value, but this is a decent draw. Usually only consider it from 8 outs up. A nutflush draw on the flop is a good example. Now you know why some of these solid players suddenly cap their draw on the flop.

kendal14 · #8 10-03-2006, 04:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
That's for 8 outs with 2 cards to come, turn and river. The 1:2.2 simply means you have 100/3.2 % chance of completing your draw by the river. So in a way you own that much of the pot, and all bets that go in on the flop. If 4 bets extra go in, you own 4/3.2 of those extra bets. That's more than the 1 you put in. This is regardless of pot size.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, now I am a little lost. How do you calculate the 1.2:2 and the (100/3.2)%? And how does it translate to the owning 4/3.2.

I'm not sure whether I should ask in the statistics forum or pull out of my stat book (honestly, I'm not a complete dolt when it comes to math, but my brain is on empty right now... just came from a 3 hour meeting).

TIA

kendal14

HoneyBadger · #9 10-03-2006, 04:37 PM

Sorry [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

8 outs with 2 cards to go: first there's 47 unseen cards on the flop, then 46 on the turn. 8 of those are good. To calculate this it's easiest to calculate the chance of missing, and then inversing that for hitting. So the chance to miss on the turn is 39/47, and on the river 38/46, multiplying gives the combined probability ~0.69. The chance to hit is then 1-0.69 = ~0.31. That's roughly 1/3.2. In odds notation that's 1:2.2.

HoneyBadger · #10 10-03-2006, 04:46 PM

Now assume a hand you'll win by the river for sure 1/3rd of the time. The other 2/3rd you loose. If the pot is $90 now, and nothing else happens, you win an expected $30 per hand.

On the flop there's you and 5 people. Suppose you bet $10 and they all call. Now the pot is $90 + 6x $10 = $150. Now you expect to win 1/3rd of this as before giving you $50 instead of $30. But wait, it did cost you $10 to bet, so you have to subtract that. Your expected profit is now $40. an improvement.

Another way to see this is saying you own 1/3rd of every extra bet. With you and 5 people, for your 1 bet, 5 others will go in. So that's 6 extra bets if you bet. But your return on this extra money is 1/3 x 6bets = 2bets. It costs you 1, so your net expected gain is 1 bet. Exactly that extra $10.

So when you "own" 1/3 of a pot (have 33% equity), you need you and 2 other callers to break even. Three bets are going in, you get a return of 3*1/3=1, but you also pay 1. More than 3 people results in a gain. Less is a loss. Now suppose you have 20% equity, that's 1/5, you need 5 people in total, so you and 4 others, to break even.