3/6: Str8 draw with multiway action. - Page 2

kendal14 · #11 10-03-2006, 05:20 PM

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Now assume a hand you'll win by the river for sure 1/3rd of the time. The other 2/3rd you loose. If the pot is $90 now, and nothing else happens, you win an expected $30 per hand.

On the flop there's you and 5 people. Suppose you bet $10 and they all call. Now the pot is $90 + 6x $10 = $150. Now you expect to win 1/3rd of this as before giving you $50 instead of $30. But wait, it did cost you $10 to bet, so you have to subtract that. Your expected profit is now $40. an improvement.

Another way to see this is saying you own 1/3rd of every extra bet. With you and 5 people, for your 1 bet, 5 others will go in. So that's 6 extra bets if you bet. But your return on this extra money is 1/3 x 6bets = 2bets. It costs you 1, so your net expected gain is 1 bet. Exactly that extra $10.

So when you "own" 1/3 of a pot (have 33% equity), you need you and 2 other callers to break even. Three bets are going in, you get a return of 3*1/3=1, but you also pay 1. More than 3 people results in a gain. Less is a loss. Now suppose you have 20% equity, that's 1/5, you need 5 people in total, so you and 4 others, to break even.

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Thank you very much for breaking down your math. I am totally following you in your previous post now all the way up to the 8 outs is 1:2.2 and 9 is 1:1.9.

And I get the quoted post regarding your equity edge and owning a certain percentage of the pot.

So in terms of making value bet/raise/call decision, would the steps and reasoning look like this?

1. Determine the probability of hitting your draw with 2 (in this case) cards to go (1 - chance of not hitting)
2. Won't this number in and of itself (assuming that you will win 100% of the time) equal your pot equity? In other words, for every bet you place in the above example (8 outs) you own 31% of it. And as long as you expect to put in one bet for at least every other 2+ players... you are at least breaking even.
3. If you think there will be more than 2 players (besides yourself), you can justifiably raise because you have the pot equity.

Thank you very much for your patient explanation of the numbers.

kendal14

Bill C · #12 10-03-2006, 07:27 PM

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So a 9+ out hand, against 4 opponents, I'll win more than 35% of the time

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Hey, Six,

I'm not a math guy. Where does the 35% come from?

bc

SixForty · #13 10-03-2006, 08:06 PM

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So a 9+ out hand, against 4 opponents, I'll win more than 35% of the time

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Hey, Six,

I'm not a math guy. Where does the 35% come from?

bc

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A hand with 9 outs has about 35% equity. That's where it comes from.

So when I class my hand as simply 9+ outs, I know that my equity is "somewhere higher" than 35%. And with this many opponents, that's all I need to know.

HoneyBadger · #14 10-04-2006, 05:58 AM

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Thank you very much for breaking down your math. I am totally following you in your previous post now all the way up to the 8 outs is 1:2.2 and 9 is 1:1.9.

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No problem. It's a joy to explain when people are genuinly interested [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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And I get the quoted post regarding your equity edge and owning a certain percentage of the pot.

So in terms of making value bet/raise/call decision, would the steps and reasoning look like this?

1. Determine the probability of hitting your draw with 2 (in this case) cards to go (1 - chance of not hitting)

[/ QUOTE ] If you don't know the numbers by heart, you can approximate it by simply halving the normal odds for a draw with one card. That is, a straight draw for 8 outs you (should) know to be ~1:5, so for 2 cards it's ~1:2.5
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2. Won't this number in and of itself (assuming that you will win 100% of the time) equal your pot equity? In other words, for every bet you place in the above example (8 outs) you own 31% of it. And as long as you expect to put in one bet for at least every other 2+ players... you are at least breaking even.

[/ QUOTE ]Yes, this is precisely an estimate of your equity[ QUOTE ]

3. If you think there will be more than 2 players (besides yourself), you can justifiably raise because you have the pot equity.

[/ QUOTE ]If you have an equity edge, ie. if you have more than your fair share of equity. More than 33% with 3 players, more than 25% with 4, more than 20% with 5. etc. Or... more than 50% with 2.
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Thank you very much for your patient explanation of the numbers.

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Again, no problem [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] In fact, this whole equity thing is not just about draws. This is the consideration you always make when deciding to bet or raise, also with made hands. With a made hand it's usually transparant as your equity is often very high in the 50% range. Betting is a no-brainer in that case. But it's the same calculations in theory.

But one thing is very important: money is not generated out of nothing. That means you can not all gain. So when you raise with 5 other people in, you have to consider where the money you are supposedly making is coming from. This always comes from people who do not have an equity edge.

The obvious source is someone who calls without the odds to do so, the chasers. But suppose all the players are solid, another source then is from people who overvalue their equity. As they all call, everybody thinks he makes a profitable play, but that's not possible. So someone must overvalue his equity. In the original hand here that could be the OP drawing thin to 76 for example. You can't always know this yourself, because you don't have full information.

One other source I can think of is the people who get odds to call for 1 bet, but should have folden if it was 2 cold to them (this only happens with very thin draws). Since they are being trapped for first a call and then a raise, they can't know this in advance. Calling the raise is the best option now, but the best option had they known there would be a raise would have been to fold.

So the bottomline is that with a drawing hand as well as with a made hand you should raise when you have an equity edge. For the latter this is very obvious. Second, you should consider where the money comes from. This is important with a non-nut flush draw and 6 people in. You are probably overvalueing your equity; so the money might come from you.

(One other thing; this was all about edges on a specific betting round. Often te size of the pot makes a call the right play. In that case you still loose money on this round, but the potential pot makes it worth it. However, remember that the pot was build by money from previous mistakes. The person capping 86o preflop, and getting odds all the way to the river for his gutshot already paid for his mistake preflop)

kaboshedx · #15 10-04-2006, 10:07 AM

This is a great explanation thanks.

I will reread this several times but all the math makes sense.

TripleH68 · #16 10-04-2006, 01:10 PM

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PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Short reads on all players involved.
This table has been pretty loose preflop, decent play postflop.

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, CO calls, Button raises, 2 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (11.33 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, CO calls, Button raises, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, CO calls.

Turn: (9.66 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, CO bets, Button raises, UTG+1 calls, Hero folds?

Did I botch this one?
Often times the preflop discussion on these starting hands is: "+EV if you play excellent postflop."
Well...

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Thanks for the insight.

On the flop I was unclear as to my intentions when betting out. What I was really thinking was I did not want to see the flop get checked through. I was also thinking it would be alright if button raised since my draw was robust. Obviously if the button raises and gets me heads up = not the best situation for this hand.

Anyhow, on to the turn. When CO bets out and button raises, then UTG+1 calls I quickly thought the following...

1) possible made str8 with a deuce diminishes my outs.
2) possible bd flush draw diminishes my outs.
3) possible 3-bet or cap coming up.
4) slim possibility of 76.

So let's say I need 5.5:1 to call(pot odds/not including implied odds)...I made a mistake folding. I am embarassed because I have played 100k hands, but I was not focused while this hand was happening. Like Ed Miller says I fold too much. I will even admit that at decision time in this hand I felt "ah the river is going to be a jack or ten or something so I'll just fold here and save two or three bets." <end of true confessional>

The rest of the story should be apparent, not that it matters. I booked a nice solid win for this session, but the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the river is burned into the back of my eye. When I look at the sky I can still see it!

FYI CO had K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. What do you think of his bet out on the turn? Button had AA. UTG+1 folded the river after CO check-raised and button called. >>>

SixForty · #17 10-04-2006, 02:26 PM

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On the flop I was unclear as to my intentions when betting out. What I was really thinking was I did not want to see the flop get checked through. I was also thinking it would be alright if button raised since my draw was robust. Obviously if the button raises and gets me heads up = not the best situation for this hand.

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Button has position and will bet when checked to almost all the time on a low board like this. It is the very reason that your draw is robust, and that you want money going, that you want to try for a checkraise. You know that if everyone stays, you'd like it to be 2 bets. But if everyone else folds and it's heads up, you'd like it to be 1 bet only. Betting out leaves you hanging without much information here. You don't have much control. Checking, and seeing how the hand develops will give you more info and more control. If Button bets and the next 2 players fold, there's a better chance for it to be heads up, and you can keep it at 1 bet. If Button bets and both other players call, you can raise it up for value with your strong draw.

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Anyhow, on to the turn. When CO bets out and button raises, then UTG+1 calls I quickly thought the following...

1) possible made str8 with a deuce diminishes my outs.
2) possible bd flush draw diminishes my outs.
3) possible 3-bet or cap coming up.
4) slim possibility of 76.

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1) True - but it only diminishes it by 1, and all your other outs still win.
2) True - but it is backdoor and is less of a need to worry
3) True - but I still think it's worth it
4) True - but it's higly unlikely that someone has that specific hand, and if you look at the way that everyone played the hand, I can't really see anyone who has played it like a flopped straight, so I'm inclined to think someone has this hand even less.

And one more thing - implied odds. Any Ace will pay you off on the river. Button's got one for sure, and it looks like CO has one a lot of the time here also.

The biggest worry is probably that someone (namely UTG+1) holds a 6, which means that your 4 deuce outs only get you half the pot. But that's still not enough to make me fold yet.

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FYI CO had K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. What do you think of his bet out on the turn? Button had AA. UTG+1 folded the river after CO check-raised and button called. >>>

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I'm not a fan of CO's turn bet. He needs some fold equity there, meaning all 3 players fold (highly unlikely, given the way Button has played the hand) or he needs everyone to call for it to be a value bet. With 3 opponents and this type of action so far, I think he's stuck right in the middle of that a vast majority of the time. By that, I mean that most of the time he'll lose either 1 or 2 players, which is the exact thing he doesn't want. The chance of him getting what he doesn want (3 callers or zero callers) is extremely thin.