weird donk

[milesdyson]

but

do you really think it is close call/fold though

[rzk]

if i instaraise and he still 3bets, no, i don't think it's close.

if i take my sweet time to raise and he 3bets, i start scratching my head.

what do others think?

[milesdyson]

i think waiting maybe makes a 1% difference overall in terms of how often you're good

[rzk]

hmm, you think instaraising doesn't change the probability that he will attempt a 3bet bluff? that's not a rhetorical question, i really want to know.

[milesdyson]

fwiw i thought you were talkin about it the other way around. when i said 1% i meant i think you're good more often when you wait than when you instantly raise. i think most people see instant raises as strong and delayed raises as possibly weak, ie. "HMM LET ME SEE...... HM... OK I GUESS I RAISE LOL."

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
if i instaraise and he still 3bets, no, i don't think it's close.

if i take my sweet time to raise and he 3bets, i start scratching my head.

what do others think?

[/ QUOTE ]


i still think raise folding JJ on a 54422 board to someone who sucks at poker can't be a valid line here.

If you do raise this river, it's because you can confidently call a 3bet.

This guy can have a 4 here, he can have a slow played better hand, but the hands you are getting value from are A=x

I just think there aren't enough bet/calling hands for the villain here.

[rzk]

[ QUOTE ]
fwiw i thought you were talkin about it the other way around. when i said 1% i meant i think you're good more often when you wait than when you instantly raise. i think most people see instant raises as strong and delayed raises as possibly weak, ie. "HMM LET ME SEE...... HM... OK I GUESS I RAISE LOL."

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree that people see instaraises as strong, that's why i want to instaraise this so i can fold to a 3bet more comfortably. but you think an instaraise will not reduce the chance that he'll 3-bet bluff by more than 1%?

btw, what's your line in this hand? call, r/c, or r/f?

[milesdyson]

i just call because i expect to hear from 5x earlier and i realize he can be bluffing here but raising doesn't gain anything in that case

[Oink]

I end up calling here for the reasons Miles mentioned. If the board wasnt double paired I'd raise.

When I raise I fold to a 3-bet without worrying about it. I use to call and win like never.

People grossly overestimate how much even retards bet/3-bet as a bluff on the river. I mean you see it. But its closer to 0.5% than the 8-10% or whatever you need to call here.

[rzk]

[ QUOTE ]
I end up calling here for the reasons Miles mentioned. If the board wasnt double paired I'd raise.

When I raise I fold to a 3-bet without worrying about it. I use to call and win like never.

People grossly overestimate how much even retards bet/3-bet as a bluff on the river. I mean you see it. But its closer to 0.5% than the 8-10% or whatever you need to call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think the board double-pairing shouldn't make us less inclined to raise. i really see the villain intending to just call down with some weakish pair, but now that he sees the board pairing he decides to donk knowing that (a) it's not easy for you to raise with a better hand since you will now be afraid of a full house (b) you will call with A high. i also see the villain making a stupid donk with A high here knowing that he's now chopping with any other A high.