Hand from Coaching Session

[nuggetz87]

............

this is awful imo. it's not like we can have a flush here unless we got really tricky as most people would c/r flop with a flush draw. villain shouldn't be folding AK or anything. i would just c/c turn.

[fees]

um 4b preflop?, as played yikes tough spot i prob fold turn not sure how often he double barrels worse

[orange]

i would c/f the turn. we aren't getting paid if we hit our flush, there are some reverse implied odds and he is rarely bluffing here.

[tufat23]

c/r at nl50 here is a pure bluff

[Jamsym]

I don't like this very much.

If he has a flush draw in a 3 bet pot he would nearly always try to get stacks in on the flop.

Plus i don't like fancy play at micro stakes. Villains can't fold AK here at this level so it's just a spew to even attempt it.

Just fold the turn.

[willw9]

Aight I'm gonna flush out a little math on this.

Villains's 3betting range in this hand is probably something like TT+, AQs+. It shouldn't be this wide, but I'm expanding it a little because, well, it's 50nl, and people overvalue and do stupid things. No history either, remember.

I'm going to kind of analyze this as a best case scenario in terms of range to emphasize what I believe to be the merit.

I would argue that his range for betting this turn includes his whole preflop range minus QdQs, the AQhh, ss, dd, and the 3 combo's of JJ that don't include a club. This range comprises 3.1% of all hands.

I'm also going to argue that he folds everything but AK/AQcc, AcKx, AcAx, KK, TT, and JcJx. Again, this is best case scenario. This range comprises 2.0% of all hands, or 64.5% of of his turn betting range.


Board: 3s Tc Kc 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.909% 70.91% 00.00% 468 0.00 { AcAd, AcAh, AcAs, KK, JcJd, JcJh, JcJs, TT, AcKc, AcQc, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdKc, AhKc, AsKc }
Hand 1: 29.091% 29.09% 00.00% 192 0.00 { QcQh }



EV = .355(41.75) + .645(.29091(66.95) + .70909(-66.95))

= -$3.23

[willw9]

FWIW we have like $11 behind after this raise, and so I assumed that if him calling = him shoving. We are essentially shoving, I just wanted to increase FE as much as possiblity and this raise def looks stronger than a c/shove.

[spivey]

Take out those JcJx and what's your equity?

[willw9]

Doing that now and it's not looking good lol.

Calling range becomes 1.7%, or 54.8% of turn betting range.

EV = .452(41.75) + .548(.125(66.95) + .875(-66.95))

EV = -$8.64

[Unknown Soldier]

fold the flop. Turn? well let's hope you have 10 outs because you're getting called.