a hand vs PA, 200/400 HU

[TheWorstPlayer]

I think your line is perfect and can't see doing anything else on any street. The hand just comes down to call, fold, or push the river. I think pushing is very very thin, so I wouldn't do it - but I definitely wouldn't rule it out from consideration (as a bluff obviously). He check/raises so often on the flop, that I would definitely expect him to check/raise big hands (like trips) on the flop. And probably flush draws, too, although he may be less likely to do that since you have been tricky postflop and may be more likely to pop him up on the flop or turn (and to call a push lightly - he probably knows you're a station, too). So I think his range is weighted more towards made hands and air on the flop than draws. Then his bet on the turn can certainly be a semi-bluff picked up on the turn, or a made hand protecting (or of course a higher flush - but I still think this is a small part of his range). Then on the river, I would think he'd bet a little smaller so that it's easier for you to push if he has a full house. His hand looks a lot more like a bluff following through or a hand like TT or something looking for thin value. I'd call.

[Ansky]

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I think a flop 3bet is really good. I don't see him bluff-4betting, and it's going to be very hard for him to play a hand like TT.

River is ugly because the flush+ is a pretty reasonable part of your range, so I don't know how often he's bluffing. Does he check an overpair on the river? Or the turn? Does he bet smaller on the turn with an overpair? Sucks that basically no lower flushes are in his range and it seem like he either has one of those or a boat. I think it's a fold but I would probably call in practice.

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I think a flop 3bet is a massive mistake, for a couple reasons. It might be ok if the board was like 742 w/ 2 clubs , but the fact that the board is paired, as well as the fact that we are 80k deep- not 60k or 40k makes 3betting a real big mistake. I doubt you get a fold from bigish hands, and you probably get played back at w/ a lot of bigger draws.

g-p,

I think given the read given, raising turn would be a mistake. I would not mind at all calling the turn and calling like 99% of river cards vs someone who is so likely to vbet worse or bluff off chips.

Krantz,
I think in these spots you always think people are more FOS than they actually are (I don't mean you specifically). The major problem with calling is that he really can have any boat since he calls so light preflop, as well as most better flushes. I think we are up against a total bluff... or a fairly large range of valuebetting hands. I wouldn't use the history to talk myself into calling here, I think this is a fold.

I think meta wise it is a bit painful to fold a hand as good as 8 high flush here given how insanely aggro he is playing, but I can count on more than 2 hands the amount of times I have wanted badly to fold a hand and told myself I "had" to call... hopefully i dont do that too much anymore.

PA KNOWS you know his crazy image, and he also knows you cant be calling that turn too light. If you are calling the flop he prob thinks your range is flush draw, any pair, probably lots of ace highs, some other straight draws. When you call the turn barrel i suspect he doesnt put you on as light of a range.

I really am tempted by a call because I think he follows through on a bluff so often on a board like this, but overall i think it's a real close fold.

[Up-grey-de]

I dont think that a turn raise is the best choice, since Krantz wrote that PA follows through with his entire range very often. I think calling is best here, and let him bet river, unfortunately another 4 hit the board which obv makes it very hard to call, but I still think that I would call river.
Same goes for flop, I like calling here too, since Krantz is just risking 5500 with a lot of outs, and can be pretty certain that PA is going to pay him off on turn if he hits.

[Requin]

How often is he CRing paired flops, or unlikely-to-have-hit flops in general? Has it been your tendency to call alot or to reraise in those spots, when you have a hand/choose to play back?

Do you think he expects a fold or a play if you have a big ace?

[KRANTZ]

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How often is he CRing paired flops, or unlikely-to-have-hit flops in general? Has it been your tendency to call alot or to reraise in those spots, when you have a hand/choose to play back?

Do you think he expects a fold or a play if you have a big ace?

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good questions. something i neglected to add is that he LOVES checkraising paired boards on the flop, way more so than any other type of board texture. i've been calling and folding a lot of turns in general, although i did call and jam a turn once and he folded (when we had shallower stacks, though).

two hands of note: the first time i 3-bet his c/r on a paired board with a flush draw i got 4-bet really small and thought about jamming Q high no draw but didn't. another hand i got c/red 200bb deep when i had a gutshot and BD nut flush draw. he bet the turn, which made the flush and gave me the NFD, i raised, and he thought for a long time and moved in and i folded.

i think based on the way i played flop and turn he does not think i'm as strong as a flush (which is why I just called and didn't raise the turn).

[btmagnetw]

in what instances has PA checked the turn after a c/r? very rarely?

[FlyingStart]

You didnt supply any reads of his betsizing, but his riverbetsize looks more like bluff/FH than a worse flush valuebetting, especially considering the sick price he would be getting if you shoved.

If your read is correct he will have pretty wide range after the flop. On the turn he probably follows through his entire range since the flush completes.

With this in mind you probably have the best hand a big % of the time. Since the river brings another scarecard he will probably fire the third barrel a decent amount too since you might lay down a flush or might have something like 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8x.

So I vote for cry, then call

[FiSheYe]

Uhm tough situation.
I like the flop play, don't think 3betting there is good without a specific background this deep.
Raising the turn in this scenario could generate an ugly situation, I mean for 100bb this is an easy turn shove but with the given stacksizes we won't get action from worse hands all that often and it's hard to fold against a shove with all the money invested.
If PA's range is really that loose on the turn then raising will get him to fold lots of hands and we deny him to bluff the river again.
On the other hand calling the turn has it's downsides as well, there are lots of cards we don't want to see: 4s (3), Ts (3), 6s (2), any club (8) for a total of 16 cards in the deck that would generate trouble.
He cannot benefit from all these cards so we should considern on the turn how we want to proceed on the river if PA bets almost all of these cards.

Krantz you said he defends his BB a lot pf but doesn't 3bet that much so does that mean he would mix it up with hands like JJ+ some of the time? Is 77 a call for him most of the time ?
I am trying to generate a handrange that is reasonable for the given scenario.
I think it's fair to assume the turn doesn't change anything
so there are 66644 and 44466 + higher flushs to worry about.
I assume he would play all of these hands the same way and we cannot read anything into the bet amounts and his line but I think it's fair to assume he doesn't have a worse flush in this spot..
Any assumptions how he would play with 77+ and air in that spot ?
We're getting 2,1:1 / need ~32,5% equity so it's very tempting to call if he really has such a wide range in those spots.
From his perspective Would you play TT, 6x, 4X and a flush the same way and could you fold 77+ / flush in this spot often enough ?
To make it short, is his loose range loose enough to bluff here 1/3 of the time or more ?
If he thinks you fold out small flushs and pairs 77+ this should be a call even tho it's very thin.

Obviously raising is another option but I cannot estimate how many better hands he would fold on the river and how he perceives you and your lines, so I cannot comment on that.

PS: just saw Krantz second post and I tend more to calling, if he thinks we don't have the flush all to often because he
cannot expect us to call 77+ all that often and he doesn't need to be correct all too often with this read to follow the river with a bluff.
The way you explained the hand it's very hard to argue for a fold, hope this is an objective description of the scenario, otherwise this is getting nowhere.

[ArmenH]

Him checking this river would scare me alot more than his lead.

[n2p]

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Him checking this river would scare me alot more than his lead.

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what??