Official review thread, Bond18, Tilt $75

[betgo]

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204. The flop bet was 15% of pot.

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So? Villain is leading into a MP PFR with a minbet!! He either misclicked or hit the jackpot and is looking for you to raise him. We are calling with A-high and are facing another bet on the turn 99% of the time.

This is raise or fold.

[/ QUOTE ]I wouldn't assume that leading into the raiser with a minibet is always a big hand.

[Sat0ri]

This might be somewhat basic but hand 106 got me thinking, is this a standard resteal here? because my first impression was it might be overly loose. This poked me to do some analysis on the hand:

Villain's opening range: 22+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo
Villain's calling range: TT+,AQs+,AQo+

does this sound like a reasonable assumption for a typical villain here?

Assuming the above, he folds 60% of his opening range to your resteal making your stack 5815.
In the other 40% he calls and your hand is 28% against his calling range giving you 0,28 equity in the 9630 pot for average of 2696.
This totaled together makes your average stack after the play 0,6*5815+0,4*2696=4567 making the play pretty much zero EV.

Note that your EV should actualy be a little bit worse because the above calculation discounts the possibility of blinds waking up with a monster. But even if you exclude those posibilities you are making a high variance, zero EV move which does not sound like a good idea for a winning player.

Anyhow I would love to hear your thoughts about this, especialy if I messed up big time with the assumptions.

[Sat0ri]

Hands 77 and 112 you raise small pairs to 3x from UTG

Is this a standard play for you? The stack sizes seem ankward for this. Whats the flop plan if called? C-bet any flop and give up to action unless you flop a set?

[betgo]

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Hands 77 and 112 you raise small pairs to 3x from UTG

Is this a standard play for you? The stack sizes seem ankward for this. Whats the flop plan if called? C-bet any flop and give up to action unless you flop a set?

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Yeh, I don't like this either. Apparently OP has a standard approach of raising 3xBB from early position. Ferguson uses a raise size by position approach and raises small from early position on the theory that he may have a big hand that wants action and if not he can get away cheaply raising into the whole table when there is too much action.

If raising small with a small pp in early position gives away too much information if you are usually making it 3xBB, you can also raise small with big pairs and some other hands, mixing it up and sometimes raising small randomly.

Seems like you cannot call a reraise and you wouldn't mind a multiway pot, so a small raise is better with a small pair in early position. You could also limp, but OP doesn't like to limp. He won't even limp behind with a small pp.

[helter skelter]

Just getting around to watching these pfx tourneys. I'm hoping to improve my game. Some hands not commented on by others.

In hand 177, you re-raise the cutoff raiser on the button w KT.

In hand 201, you raise in the SB w J7.

In hands 217 and 225, you pass on the button with Q9 when its folded around to you.

Are these all opponent dependent plays? I noticed that you rarely try to steal on the button.

Several times you raised in MP with low suited connectors. Is this just to mix up your play against known opponents?

[timmay28]

hand 247 - villian bets only 6300 into a 16,500 pot on a draw heavy board. Seems pretty odd/weak to me. Did you think about shoving there?

[helter skelter]

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Hand 37: Should I not be opening with these Ax hands on the button??

No, you can, this was likely a result of 9 tabling.



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Just curious. How many cash and how many tourneys?