Interesting spot w/97o

[Entity]

Online game. Pretty aggro in general but MP is definitely a soft and fairly passive spot at the table. I don't know if he's capable of spazziness but he's been limping far more often than he's been raising and I'd guess he's been playing about 60-70% of his hands preflop.

Folded to him and he raises UTG+1/MP/whatever 6-handed. Basically UTG 5-handed. I'm in the BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and elect to call. I think it's kinda close, I guess -- I'd fold 96o and I'd call quickly with 98o but I'm not superexcited about the prospects of playing for 1pr here, but I think he tends to play dumb enough postflop that I'll be able to make up whatever deficit my hand has.

The flop is A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I check and he checks after pausing for a second (I was calling and c/f'ing the turn UI if he fired again). Ok, now I'm confused. The pot's only 4.5SB. Hrm.

The turn is the 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

I'm thinking something along the lines of bet-fold vs bet-call vs check-call vs check-fold here and all options seem intuitively really close. I don't know if he's dumb enough to check behind AK on the flop after raising it preflop. If I knew that it'd be a much easier spot. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

So yeah. Your play?

Rob

[Oink]

IMO its between c/c and c/f, prolly c/f. He has an overpair, AA or a good Ax a lot in this spot and is obviously not folding anything.

You barely have odds to call when he bets depending on whether he sometimes has KQ or QJs or something and checks behind the river.

[MacGuyV]

I like c/c then c/f since you picked up the gutter; would b/f other turn cards.

[yourface]

wierd spot with not much info on his tendencies. I think that most players would continuation bet their missed broadway hands on an ace high flop to pick up the pot, so his range is mostly Ax and pairs >= 9

I think that the right play is to check, hoping for a free card, and then make a close decision if he bets. getting only ~3:1 (considering the rake) and thinking that my pair outs won't always win me the pot I would fold

we should try and figure out what his flop check behind means asap

[Rev. Good Will]

Wow, isn't it like 8 am on the west coast? go back to sleep for another 4 hours!

Also, is the 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in your hand or on the flop?

Assuming it's still a 2 tone flop, I like a check/fold here. Although I don't like giving another free card in case he has 6 outs with unpaired broadway cards, and really don't want to give a flush draw a free card, I think this ~2 BB pot isn't big enough to get riled over, or to bet and protect your hand. For the most part, your hand is still very behind his turn betting range, and getting 3:1 isn't good enough even with all the draws you have.

The only thing right now that is bugging me is I don't' know how much to weigh into this the probability that villain has a flush draw edit - and then semi-bluff the turn after checking the flop

[yourface]

rev, you could try messing around with pokerstove to find out how many broadway hands and gutshots villain needs to be betting on the turn for a peel to be +ev

this range could be a good starting point to add to:
AcAd,KcKs,KdKs,KhKs,QcQs,QdQs,QhQs,JcJs,JdJs,JhJs, TcTs,TdTs,ThTs,
9c9d,8c8s,8d8h,8d8s,8h8s,7c7s,7d7h,7d7s,7h7s,6c6s, 6h6s,AcKc,AsKs,
AcQc,AdQd,AdJd,AsJs,AcTc,AsTs,Ac9c,Ac8c,Ad8d,Ad7d, As7s,Ac6c,As6s,
As5s,Ac4c,As3s,Ac2c,AcKd,AcKh,AcKs,AdKh,AcQd,AcQh, AcQs,AdQh,
AcJd,AcJh,AdJh,AdJs,AcTd,AcTh,AcTs,AdTh,AdTs

that's pretty messy but it's just a bunch of discounted AX, AXs, and PPs. I discounted everything somewhat, and then additionally discounted the smaller PPs more than the bigger ones, and the smaller aces more than the bigger ones

[sharpie]

What do you guys think the chances of him having a worse hand that checks through the river are? Pot is 3BB on the turn, we probably have 1BB implied on the river, with up to 9 outs he only has to have a worse hand that checks behind a small portion of the time. Still, it does look like a trap or pocket pair type hand.

[yourface]

vs that range I pasted there we are 30% equity on the turn, which justifies a peel. throwing in some discounted broadways brings it up to 38%.

but that doesn't consider the crappy river spot we get put in, and my ranges may be off anyways

[Entity]

This is from memory but I seem to recall that AsXs could have been a possibility though it wasn't likely, so I'll say that I had 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I'll check again when the video finishes producing though because it's definitely important.

Rob

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
vs that range I pasted there we are 30% equity on the turn, which justifies a peel. throwing in some discounted broadways brings it up to 38%.

but that doesn't consider the crappy river spot we get put in, and my ranges may be off anyways

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not all that sure that I can really be put in a crappy river spot against this opponent, FWIW. It's not like if I call the turn I feel any obligation to call the river, and if he raises the turn if I bet and I decide I have to call (questionable), I certainly won't be calling UI and I won't be losing more than 1BB when I do improve.

Rob