old 1-2 hand, turn decision

[stoxtrader]

Limit: $100/$200
9 players

Pre-flop: Stox is MP1 with J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
2 folds, Stox raises, 1 fold, HJ (poster) calls, CO 3-bets, 2 folds, Big Blind calls, Stox calls, HJ calls.

Flop: (12.5SB) 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
Big Blind checks, Stox checks, HJ checks, CO bets, Big Blind calls, Stox calls, HJ raises, CO 3-bets, Big Blind 4-bets (cap), Stox calls, HJ calls, CO calls.

Turn: (14.25BB) 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
Big Blind bets, Stox ????

both HJ and CO left to act.

[Vlade Divac]

i would call prolly up against a few over pairs pot is freaking huge

[GoblinMason (Craig)]

Id def calling seeing that BB is on a made flush and CO is on an overpair often enough.

[mike l.]

not much going on here. you cant raise, but you also cant fold. so you call and hope to make a bigger flush than bb already has.

there are times to fold fearing you are drawing dead and there will be action behind you, but this giant pot is definitely not one of them.

[MattiasL]

At the table, I would call and probably fold to raises behind me.

But thinking about it more, I think folding is the correct play.

1. You are in a RIO situation.
2. You need to heavily reduce your estimated number of outs, due to
2a. You could be drawing dead.
2b. When your draw is live, there should be a lot of spades and/or FH outs in your opponents hands.
3. It can easily be raised behind you even when your draw is live.

So I would estimate 4-5 outs when we are drawing live. Which is not enough when you factor in the other arguments.

[duckman]

Its a call - Not willing to give immediate credit for a FH being out there. If it gets raised behind you and you are facing 2 back to you from the BB thenn I think it is a fold.

[cartman]

I call and call one bet back to me but fold for two.

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
I call and call one bet back to me but fold for two.

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[stoxtrader]

[ QUOTE ]
not much going on here. you cant raise, but you also cant fold. so you call and hope to make a bigger flush than bb already has.

there are times to fold fearing you are drawing dead and there will be action behind you, but this giant pot is definitely not one of them.


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can anyone QUANTIFY or at least attempt to quantify what pot sizes are needed to make folding or calling correct here?

yes the pot is huge, but there is a reason it's huge. everyone really likes their hands.

three key variables I guess.

1) how often do you see the river for just one bet
2) how often are you drawing dead
3) if your outs are live how many do you have

[mike l.]

this would be a good one for the probabilty forum! for us math retarded feel players it's just too big to fold, even though it can easily be a rio scenario. once you see the flop and all that action explodes youre locked in. i would fold if it got raised, reraised, and capped before i could act again, which very well mightve happened. but there's no way to justify a fold on the turn for one bet, it's just not in the playbook.