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#13
11-16-2007, 12:35 PM
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Re: AJ hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Is there any reason why he wouldn't bet KJ here without hesitation? [/ QUOTE ] because he is old? [/ QUOTE ] Not bad, but this is a mid-stakes game in Vegas, not Foxwoods. 
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#14
11-16-2007, 04:42 PM
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Re: AJ hand
At least three of the over 75yo Bellagio $15-30 regulars are horrible horrible spazzy aggressive donkeys. Against them....and they would play a lot of hands exactly like this....a call is in order.
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#15
11-16-2007, 04:54 PM
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Re: AJ hand
[ QUOTE ]
At least three of the over 75yo Bellagio $15-30 regulars are horrible horrible spazzy aggressive donkeys. Against them....and they would play a lot of hands exactly like this....a call is in order. [/ QUOTE ] Justin plays Bellagio enough to know which guys are the 75 yo spazzes. This guy is an unknown.
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#16
11-16-2007, 06:02 PM
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Re: AJ hand
I still like raising the flop here. sb could be betting a K, 9 or another AJ. If we get 3 bet its not such a big deal b/c we have outs to a gutshot plus trips. Eliminating button is kinda nice b/c he can certainly have enough equity to call w/a gutter but fold for 2. If he's got an ace, we eliminate the likelyhood of a split
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#18
11-16-2007, 06:47 PM
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Re: AJ hand
I'll be the first to say check/fold turn. SB has you beat here a good amount of the time and is now irrationally fearing AK on the turn. Obviously once he check/folds the river we have new information but you guys are all cheating if you don't ignore that. I don't love the turn bet.
-DeathDonkey
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#19
11-19-2007, 02:02 AM
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Re: AJ hand
[ QUOTE ]
I'll be the first to say check/fold turn. SB has you beat here a good amount of the time and is now irrationally fearing AK on the turn. Obviously once he check/folds the river we have new information but you guys are all cheating if you don't ignore that. I don't love the turn bet. -DeathDonkey [/ QUOTE ] Did you read his description of the SB, he has just King, everytime. Check-fold? So if the button bets and the SB calls, you are going to fold middle pair-best kicker, w/a gutter draw getting 7.5:1 closing the action?
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#20
11-19-2007, 02:37 AM
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Re: AJ hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'll be the first to say check/fold turn. SB has you beat here a good amount of the time and is now irrationally fearing AK on the turn. Obviously once he check/folds the river we have new information but you guys are all cheating if you don't ignore that. I don't love the turn bet. -DeathDonkey [/ QUOTE ] Did you read his description of the SB, he has just King, everytime. Check-fold? So if the button bets and the SB calls, you are going to fold middle pair-best kicker, w/a gutter draw getting 7.5:1 closing the action? [/ QUOTE ] Gutter and trips are your only strong outs and as DD points out, those may even be questionable. The pot is big enough for it to be close but if Justin checkfolded the turn I wouldn't go "omgwtf," I'd just have to count and think for a while. As is it's probably how I'd play it live, but certainly feels close enough that I should probably take another look and figure out if I should be betfolding the turn or checking. Rob
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