Inducing a bluff

[Justin A]

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Do you give up when you have JTs?

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No chance metagame in this spot is as important as the immediate EV.

[Entity]

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Do you give up when you have JTs?

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No chance metagame in this spot is as important as the immediate EV.

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No chance that there's enough EV to be gained by checking behind in a live game here to make up for the admittedly small gains you have in EV by playing Ax the same as JTs.

Rob

[SNOWBALL]

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Commerce 40/80. Game is playing very very tight and it's not that great, but we're about to break (and unbeknownst to me I'm about to move to an awesome game for the last 2 hours of the night).

Folded to me in the CO, I open AQ. SB calls, BB folds.

Flop 855. Check, I bet, he calls.
Turn A. He checks, I check?

(Plan is for him to bet the river and I raise any card that isn't an 8, T, or J.)

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If you don't think he has anything, why raise the river? If you think he has a 5, why raise the river? If you think he has an ace, why not bet the turn?

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if we check behind and raise most rivers:

if he has an ace, we make the same (unless villain would cr, but we lose less if he has AK)
if he has KQ, or something, we gain 1 bet from his bluff
if he has a five, we may lose less, because we might have to calldown a turn CR and payoff river, whereas we should be able to fold to a river 3bet methinks

[SNOWBALL]

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Do you give up when you have JTs?

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No chance metagame in this spot is as important as the immediate EV.

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right, and PJ doesn't put in enough hours for this to matter anyway

[Entity]

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Do you give up when you have JTs?

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No chance metagame in this spot is as important as the immediate EV.

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right, and PJ doesn't put in enough hours for this to matter anyway

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Live I think it's pretty easy to get the image quickly of being "that guy" -- the one that raises and raises and raises and bets every scare card. When "that guy" checks behind here on a scare card on this board, it's pretty unrealistic for him to hope to gain 2 extra BB on the river. Just MHO of course but I'm not judging this as they judge it, I'm just trying to balance my play and earn the most when they have weak hands that they'll convince themselves to call down with, and honestly on this board there are more hands that can call a turn bet and fold to a river bet or call both than will bet-call the river.

Rob

[Joe Tall]

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This is called the Josh W play.

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It is? When/where did he say this? Sure you aren't mixing it up with his c/r the river when you whiff a turn, c/r?

[J-dub]

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This is called the Josh W play.

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It is? When/where did he say this? Sure you aren't mixing it up with his c/r the river when you whiff a turn, c/r?

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Justin has broke his vow of silence.

I do both of these things, a lot. And, by "a lot", I certainly do not mean "with optimum frequency".

In PJs hand, I don't raise the river all the time, either.

The reason why I started doing this all the time a few years ago is that I play with a bunch of regulars all the time. By checking this turn with strong hands, it made it so I never have to pay off with a hand like QQ, but I also get to valuebet it on the river (and 44 will call).

I think it's the type of play that has a lot more benefit if you play in a game where everybody knows you fairly well.

Josh W

[private joker]

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Do you give up when you have JTs?

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[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

-DeathDonkey

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I don't know I'm missing some inside joke, but yes I check behind a lot of hands that totally miss here too.

[Joe Tall]

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Do you give up when you have JTs?

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[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

-DeathDonkey

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I don't know I'm missing some inside joke,

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You aren't. DD actually checks here too and was just passing out hearts that day to all his loving friends. (yes, I asked him about this. no, I didnt ask why i didnt get one. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img])

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but yes I check behind a lot of hands that totally miss here too.

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You should fire on this card w/JTs. You are missing pots against folders here. (folders include TAGs)

[golferbrent]

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Commerce 40/80. Game is playing very very tight and it's not that great, but we're about to break (and unbeknownst to me I'm about to move to an awesome game for the last 2 hours of the night).

Folded to me in the CO, I open AQ. SB calls, BB folds.

Flop 855. Check, I bet, he calls.
Turn A. He checks, I check?

(Plan is for him to bet the river and I raise any card that isn't an 8, T, or J.)

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Which night was this? I was there this weekend playing in the 40 on both Friday and Saturday? I was curious which game you got moved to that was so good... maybe we played together? The game I was in was absolutely dynamite--unlike any game I have played in before. 4-5-6 ways for multiple bets pre-flop all the time. 3-4-5 players consistently CC'ing preflop. Couldn't believe how good the game was!! Just curious?

As far as this hand goes: I am not sure I see the value here? Do you think the player has a worse ace on the turn? If so he pays off both streets. If he has a five you save money b/c 3 bets probably don't go in on river unless the player is full. If you put him on a pair of some sort--Are you thinking that a check on the turn will get him to lead the river thus gaining a bet and possibly two b/c he will make a confusion call?

If that is the case then it does make sense, but I think it is outweighed by the bet you might be missing from someone with a worse A? Curious to hear your thoughts!