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  #1  
Old 01-09-2007, 02:22 AM
RichC. RichC. is offline
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Default Fold this AK PF?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG (t4996)
Hero (t13424)
MP1 (t13458)
MP2 (t5454)
MP3 (t6765)
CO (t13135)
Button (t5367)
SB (t12195)
BB (t9279)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1850</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t5450</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero ???

Reads: I had been a bit more active but had solid to premium hands each time since villian was moved to the table.

Villian had also shown down strong hands. Looked afterward to see he was in top 30 on TLB for year, still early i know.

Not quite near the money either. Stars $20, 10k gtd.
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  #2  
Old 01-09-2007, 02:52 AM
beenben beenben is offline
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Default Re: Fold this AK PF?

You're most likely against a pair. Your M was about 11 when you started the hand. If you fold, it's down to 9 and you're going to be in push-fold mode and you might not pick up a hand better than AK before you need to push. there is always the chance that this could be a re-steal with air or a weaker ace or a suited connector.

so I would call. 2nd choice fold. all-in re-raise is bad b/c only better hands are going to call you. call and go is bad b/c you're pot committed by the call.

contradicted myself there - said to call and go and that call and go was bad. all in.
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  #3  
Old 01-09-2007, 03:01 AM
Lloyd Lloyd is offline
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Default Re: Fold this AK PF?

[ QUOTE ]
Your M was about 11 when you started the hand. If you fold, it's down to 9 and you're going to be in push-fold mode

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been seeing this too much recently. Why all of a sudden are you in push-fold mode with an M of 9? People seem to confuse the "guideline" of pushing with 10 BBs or less with an M of 10 or less. You still have lots of play with an M of 10. You can certainly do more than just push or fold.
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  #4  
Old 01-09-2007, 03:12 AM
Jiggymike Jiggymike is offline
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Default Re: Fold this AK PF?

[ QUOTE ]
You're most likely against a pair. Your M was about 11 when you started the hand. If you fold, it's down to 9 and you're going to be in push-fold mode and you might not pick up a hand better than AK before you need to push. there is always the chance that this could be a re-steal with air or a weaker ace or a suited connector.

so I would call. 2nd choice fold. all-in re-raise is bad b/c only better hands are going to call you. call and go is bad b/c you're pot committed by the call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Call is obv. worst play unless you like to commit almost 1/2 your stack preflop and then think about folding on flop. So it's either all-in or fold. Against a solid player he's probably reraising JJ+/AK/AQ(? dunno about last one). You have AK so there are 3 combos of AA, 3 combos of KK, 9 combos of AK, 12 combos AQ (lets cut it in half to be fair so 6) and 6 combos of QQ and JJ each. It's late so I have to forego the math but I think it's pretty close between pushing and folding. Since you are behind his range and only a big favorite against AQ, I don't think folding is terrible. You've both been showing down solid hands so I don't think he is doing this with a much wider range. It also might encourage him to come over the top of you again when you have a hand you like better.

Even though pushing AK in a tournament is often +EV, there are situations where you can get rid of it. Villian wants to go all the way with his hand considering his raise, so don't feel bad if you fold it here. However I wouldn't fault a push either in order to try to double up, gotta make some gambles and a simple reraise shouldn't consistently keep you from making moves.
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  #5  
Old 01-09-2007, 03:55 AM
Lloyd Lloyd is offline
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Default Re: Fold this AK PF?

For those who say "you've been active", read the rest of his statement. Since the villain got to the table he's shown down good hands, as has the villain.

So let's say the villain has AA-TT, AK, AQs. Let's also say that he'll fold TT and JJ half the time and AQs all the time if the hero re-raises pre-flop.

So there are a total of 36 hands the villain could have and he's going to fold 9 of them (half of TT/JJ and AQs). So the hero will win pre-flop 25% of the time. The rest of the time the hero is a 40/60 dog.

25% villain folds = Hero has 19,808
19,808 * .25 = 4,952

75% villain calls
40% hero wins = Hero has 27,459
27,459 * .40 = 10,984
60% hero loses = Hero has 289
289 * .6 = 173
Expected Stack When Hero is Called = 11,157 * .75 = 8,368

Expected stack if Hero pushes = 4,952 + 8,368 = 13,320

If hero folds, his stack is 11,574. So, looks like pushing is superior with those assumptions.

But let's take away AQs and TT from his range. After all, we're talking about a situation where the villain is up against an EP raiser who can bust him, and the villain is a good player.

So now there are a total of 27 total combinations the villain could have. Let's say he folds JJ half the time and calls with everything else. So he's calling 89% of the time and folding 11% of the time. When the hero is called he's still a 40/60 dog.

11% villain folds = Hero has 19,808
19,808 * .11 = 2,179

89% villain calls
40% hero wins = Hero has 27,459
27,459 * .40 = 10,984
60% hero loses = Hero has 289
289 * .6 = 173
Expected Stack When Hero is Called = 11,157 * .89 = 9,930

Expected stack if Hero pushes = 2,179 + 9,930 = 12,109. That's just a hair more than if the hero folds.

So all things considered, it does look like a pre-flop push might be the best play. I still don't think it's a clear cut decision as I think his range is closer to AA-JJ, AK than AA-TT, AK-AQs.

Also, I think raising 2.5 BBs at this stage might make some (maybe not this) decisions easier when the stack sizes are in this awkward 20 BB range.
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  #6  
Old 01-09-2007, 04:05 AM
Jiggymike Jiggymike is offline
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Default Re: Fold this AK PF?

Lloyd,
Great post, thanks for doing the math I was too lazy to think about.
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  #7  
Old 01-09-2007, 04:34 AM
RichC. RichC. is offline
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Default Re: Fold this AK PF?

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Lloyd

FWIW, this was maybe one of the hardest PF decisions I have had to make in a while. I used up maybe half my timer on this one too before finally folding. Besides the math, which i did not calculate at the time obv. just made general assumptions that this was a 50/50 push fold and calling was ruled out. Other things I took into consideration was if i wanted to flip for my stack being a 40/60 dog at best.

I dont know if I made a sick read with so little info, but now the more i think about it, his reraise here is never less than JJ+ and AK. He said he had QQ which was generally what i put him on. I also dont think he folds anything that he raises me with since it was almost half his stack. One other thing i considered, there were still some pretty bad players at the table and I felt that I could get those chips back later.

My read about villain being a good player proved to be true as well.
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  #8  
Old 01-09-2007, 05:49 PM
UtzChips UtzChips is offline
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Default Re: Fold this AK PF?

[ QUOTE ]
..............So let's say the villain has AA-TT, AK, AQs. Let's also say that he'll fold TT and JJ half the time and AQs all the time if the hero re-raises pre-flop...........So there are a total of 36 hands the villain could have..........

[/ QUOTE ]

AA=3 KK=3 QQ=6 JJ=6 TT=6 AK=9 AQ=12 : Total 45 hands


[ QUOTE ]
and he's going to fold 9 of them (half of TT/JJ and AQs).

[/ QUOTE ]

1/2 of TT = 3 1/2 of JJ = 3 &amp; AQ = 12 Total hands:18
(You did say Villian would fold AQ all the time)

So the Hero will win Preflop 40% of the time.

[ QUOTE ]
The rest of the time the hero is a 40/60 dog.

[/ QUOTE ]

According to Pokerstove, AK v. TT+,AK:
Wins 28.13 Loses 45.85% Draws 13.01%

So Hero wins 40% of the time Preflop
Wins 28.13% of the time Postflop
Draws 13.01% of the time Postflop

Stands behind the rail 45.85% of the 40% of the time that Villian calls: .40 * 45.85 = 18% of the time.

We can stop right there. 88% chance he will still be in the game with either an almost doubled stack, splitting the pot, or winning the pot preflop.

That's too good to be true! All In Baby!

That is, if Villian will fold JJ,TT 1/2 the time and AQ all the time.........
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  #9  
Old 01-09-2007, 06:21 PM
Lloyd Lloyd is offline
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Default Re: Fold this AK PF?

AQs, not AQ. You can do the math with AQ, that's just not what I did. There are only 3 possible holdings of AQs.

[ QUOTE ]
According to Pokerstove, AK v. TT+,AK:
Wins 28.13 Loses 45.85% Draws 13.01%

[/ QUOTE ]
You need to be precise in PokerStove. What you ran is NOT the assumptions I gave. First of all, he doesn't have AK. He has AcKd. When he just put in AK it includes AKs as a possibility which will improve his chances. You're also putting in TT and JJ - all of the possibilities. If we say he'll fold TT/JJ half the time then you obviously can only use 3 of the 6 possible holdings for each of those hands.
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  #10  
Old 01-10-2007, 02:01 AM
JNash JNash is offline
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Default Re: Fold this AK PF?

I bet that if you crank these same assumptions through an ICM calculator, it turns the tournament EV negative (worth checking out if you have the time). Given heros's stack size and where we are in the tourney, there will be plenty of higher EV opportunities...
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