NL20 rivered FH, river action?

HonteleJ · #1 11-13-2007, 04:06 PM

SB is 26.1/6.3/0.73 over 111 hands.
I'm not worried about the short MP at all.

Prima Network No-Limit Hold'em, $0.20 BB (5 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Button ($11.77)
SB ($20.50)
BB ($20.00)
Hero ($53.91)
MP ($5.07)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero raises to $0.8, MP calls $0.80, 1 fold, SB calls $0.70, 1 fold.

Flop: ($2.60) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP checks.

Turn: ($2.60) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets $0.6, Hero raises to $2.75, MP calls $2.75, SB calls $2.15.

River: ($10.85) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets $3.8, Hero ?

stillnaive · #2 11-13-2007, 04:14 PM

Since you're posting it, I assume he had AK and stacked you. I think you've got to raise the river, based on his line. The board isn't all that drawy on the turn and he's simply calling your raise; FWIW, I'd play it the same. Without a read, I call the river. With any read that he'd make this play with AQ, Kx, I'm pushing.

Schiester · #3 11-13-2007, 04:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Since you're posting it, I assume he had AK and stacked you. I think you've got to raise the river, based on his line. The board isn't all that drawy on the turn and he's simply calling your raise; FWIW, I'd play it the same. Without a read, I call the river. With any read that he'd make this play with AQ, Kx, I'm pushing.

[/ QUOTE ]

What he said.

HonteleJ · #4 11-13-2007, 04:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Since you're posting it, I assume he had AK and stacked you. I think you've got to raise the river, based on his line. The board isn't all that drawy on the turn and he's simply calling your raise; FWIW, I'd play it the same. Without a read, I call the river. With any read that he'd make this play with AQ, Kx, I'm pushing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, looking at his stats, my read = fish. Do you really just call this without further reads? It's 20NL...

stillnaive · #5 11-13-2007, 04:24 PM

You're probably right. My initial thought when I saw the thread was "wtf, why wouldn't you push this?" but then, I realized it was because villain had AK.

Results-based thinking [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

You're No Daisy · #6 11-13-2007, 05:04 PM

I'm not worried about MP either. Put villain all in. AK probably doesn't check this flop with two clubs on the board in a multiway pot. You will get re-raised preflop if SB has AA or KK so you can discount those hands. In fact, AK probably re-raises PF as well. With his flop check I put villain on KQ-KT, QJ-QT[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Think about it. SB is OOP (out of position [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]) with a King or possibly a club draw with QcJc in his hand...he most likely doesn't like the Ace on the flop so he checks. The turn bet is really weak and his call of Hero's raise looks like he doesn't believe someone has an ace, or he's drawing. The river leaves villain with roughly $13 left in his stack. I'd put him all in. The only hand you're losing to is AK. If villain is holding KQ-KT he probably thinks his hand is good.

AC

stillnaive · #7 11-13-2007, 05:25 PM

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the math almost definitely works out for the push. If he has AK or something absurd like AA/KK less than 65% of the time, it's +EV to push.

EV = .33*(14.65+13.15)-.67*(14.65)
EV ~ $0.21

Now, if you truly think he's got AA/KK/AK 65% of the time, a call might be the better +EV move, but if your read is total donk, he's probably only got AA/KK/AK like, 33-50% of the time. It's now an easier push than before I did the math. THX ALG 1 TCHR

You're No Daisy · #8 11-13-2007, 05:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the math almost definitely works out for the push. If he has AK or something absurd like AA/KK less than 65% of the time, it's +EV to push.

EV = .33*(14.65+13.15)-.67*(14.65)
EV ~ $0.21

Now, if you truly think he's got AA/KK/AK 65% of the time, a call might be the better +EV move, but if your read is total donk, he's probably only got AA/KK/AK like, 33-50% of the time. It's now an easier push than before I did the math. THX ALG 1 TCHR

[/ QUOTE ]
Here are the numbers I come up with and they are easier to understand...

Villain's VPIP is 26% so lets round down to 25% for [censored] and giggles. This means he plays any pair, any broadway, any ace down to A6, any suited ace, and any suited connectors 54s+.

On the turn we are KILLING his range.

Board: Ah 4c Kc 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 92.344% 92.34% 00.00% 10808 0.00 { 5d5s }
Hand 1: 07.656% 07.66% 00.00% 896 0.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, A6o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

But I narrowed down his range to KQ-KT, QJ-QT (suited in clubs). As mentioned in my previous post I discounted AA-KK and AK. Now we are farther ahead of his range on the turn:

Board: Ah 4c Kc 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 95.868% 95.87% 00.00% 1856 0.00 { 5d5s }
Hand 1: 04.132% 04.13% 00.00% 80 0.00 { KTs+, QTs+, KTo+ }

On the river SB is toast.

AC

stillnaive · #9 11-13-2007, 06:00 PM

So what percentage of the time do you think he has AA/KK/AK?

That's probably one of the tougher questions for a uNL player to answer; at least, it is for me. The cautious player in me would say at least a third of the time, but having played a few hands in my poker career, I also know how possible this line is for Kx. So, what % of the time do you put the opponent on the hands that crush hero in this scenario?

bsball8806 · #10 11-13-2007, 06:03 PM

Shove. MP has like AJ or A 10. SB would have to be retarded to overcall with AK, AA or KK preflop.

He could very easily be making this play with something like KQ, or KJ. AQ making a blocking bet makes the most sense (though no option really does), but I think we're good often enough here to shove.