(10NL) set facing river all-in on scary board

[Ampelmann]

Only a few hands with villain. He seemed fairly tight preflop.

Edit: I wanted to pot it on the flop ($1.1), but I mistyped the amount. Don't think that matters too much.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $9.75
UTG+1: $11.50
MP1: $2
MP2: $11.10
MP3: $5.15
CO: $10
Button: $7.85
SB: $10
BB: $10.80

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $0.55</font>, 7 folds, BB calls.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($1.15, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $1</font>, BB calls.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($3.15, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $3</font>, BB calls.

River: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($9.15, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB is all-in $6.25</font>, Hero pukes and ...

[CaptVimes]

You have pot odds of 2.76to1 which mean you have to be right about 27% of the time. But wait FT charges 10% rake so you would only be winning 12.91 not 14.35 which brings your odds down to about 2.5to1, and you'll lose another .50 on the money you put in to call. So I guess if you think your ahead here about 30% of the time....

AA,KK,QQ,AK,KQ,KJ,KTs Beat us

AQ,AJ,AT,22,QJ,JT,Ax [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],complete bluff We Beat

Obviously some of these hands are more likely than others.

Interested to see what others have to say. Tough spot. If I called it would be the straight, if I folded they would show AQ.

[CazicT]

Very hard to say. Against some opponents this is a fairly easy call, against others it is a fairly easy fold.

With such a scary board, any sane opponent probably wouldn't bet all-in with anything other than the straight on the end (or a bluff). They would have to worry very much that you had AK. But I don't know if you can assume a sane villian.

AK seems unlikely for the villian as he didn't bet out on the flop, however since you were the PF raiser, he probably expected a CB so it is still possible.

KQ is possible as he would have had 4 outs to the broadway straight. Of course this probably wouldn't be a good move because he'd have to be sure to stack you to have the correct implied odds. Just because it wouldn't be a good move, doesn't mean he didn't do it though.

KK is possible, but very often you would have had a re-raise preflop.

All other King hands seem unlikely to have called a raise preflop.

After thinking about it, I think I would call. You have good pot odds, and I think there is enough of a chance that the villian has a busted flush draw or is making an i'll advised bet with 2 pair or something that it is worth calling.