What would be the best limit to start at?

[SGspecial]

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Can you say why, please? I read (it's in my early notes - and don't know from where)that Razz is higher variance - I thought it was because so many times you end up having to go to the river when you have a better draw. But if what you say is true, and I imagine it is, then if I knew why it could really help my game.

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The explanation is in your location [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

You're a razzmaniac, right? Well, if you play razz like a maniac you're going to get into a lot of big pots with people who think you're a maniac and want to call you down or raise you when they hit a big draw, etc. Then you experience high variance in razz (and post about it in the forums), even if you're good enough to make that style work and be a winning player. If you play more conservatively, you can stay out of many high variance situations. Even going to the river with the best draw isn't all that high variance because you typically stand a much better chance of hitting in razz. You may only win 1 out of 3 pots in that scenario, but you often have to play much thinner draws in other games, or you are RAISING with big draws rather than calling. Two bets > one bet, so the variance in razz is somewhat lower.

[Praxising]

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Even going to the river with the best draw isn't all that high variance because you typically stand a much better chance of hitting in razz. You may only win 1 out of 3 pots in that scenario,

[/ QUOTE ]Thank you, this all makes a lot of sense to me.

I understand that I have to be getting better than three to one on my money to go to the river on a good draw if I am only going to win one out of three times.

But am I? Going to win one out of three? And if I am, how do we know that? I just can't find these things written anywhere, it seems to be some kind of poker folk wisdom. (I am a huge admirer of folk wisdom, BTW.)



oh yeah - and my razzmania only applies to my love for the game - a try not to play too many real big pots - well - unless I have a nice 5 or 64, acourse!

[RustyBrooks]

You can generally calculate whether you'll be ahead on the next card, given an assumption about your opponent's current strength. It's basic arithmatic, I can lead you through it if you're interested.

[Praxising]

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You can generally calculate whether you'll be ahead on the next card, given an assumption about your opponent's current strength. It's basic arithmatic, I can lead you through it if you're interested.

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Can I do it in 15 seconds or less?

Seriously, I'd like to see a simple way to do it, not for my math-broken self, but I think a lot of folks would like that. (Understand my math ability stops at being able to figure out on a food label if the calories in the fat are greater than or less than 20% of the total calories, or how much off the price I'm getting if I save 30% - if you can make it that simple I'll be eternally gratful.)

[RustyBrooks]

I'm working out and playing simultaneous at the moment (well, a bit of each at a time I guess)

I'll post something later. It's an approximation, and it's not really any harder than figuring out your odds of drawing to a flush in holdem. Although you can't memorize, you have to do a little counting.

[SGspecial]

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oh yeah - and my razzmania only applies to my love for the game - a try not to play too many real big pots - well - unless I have a nice 5 or 64, acourse!

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Now now, I didn't mean that you played like a maniac, just that those players who do will experience much more variance than conservative players. Also I just pulled the 1 time out of 3 figure out of thin air, but to give you a reference if you have a wheel draw on 6th you will suck out on a made 96 about 1/3 of the time.

[RustyBrooks]

I started to type something up. Before I go to much further, Prax, I'm assuming you know how to figure out how often you'll outdraw your opponent's current hand? If so, I won't need to explain that and it'll simplify things greatly.

[Praxising]

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I started to type something up. Before I go to much further, Prax, I'm assuming you know how to figure out how often you'll outdraw your opponent's current hand? If so, I won't need to explain that and it'll simplify things greatly.

[/ QUOTE ]Why would you make such a silly assumption?

SG - I knew you didn't mean me!

[RustyBrooks]

Well, OK, let's start there. You need to count how many cards will improve your hand to a hand that is better than what you think your opponent has. I leave figuring out what your opponent has an excercise to the reader [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Also, you need to figure out how many unknown cards there are. This is 52 - however many cards you have seen exposed so far. Don't go overboard trying to count these... on 6th st, if the hand was heads up from the beginning, there are 36 cards unknown. You know your 6, your opponents up 4, and 6 door cards from the people who folded 3rd. Obviously adjust downwards if lots of people saw 4th.

So, let's say you counted your outs, and there are 15 of them, and you've been heads up the whole way, so there are 36 cards left. That means you'll hit your draw 15/36 times. I'm going to cheat and call this 15/35 because that's almost the same anyway, and 15/35 is 3/7, which in odds speak is 3:4 (3 times you hit, 4 times you don't)

This is the absolute upper bound on your drawing odds. The real number is always lower than this, because for at least some of your outs, your opponent can draw a better card, improving also, and beat the hand you just drew to.

This number is not that useful except to know that it's never better than this. If this number does not justify a call, you must fold. If it DOES justify a call, you need to do some more digging. If this makes sense to you, I'll move on.

[Praxising]

Rusty, let's see if we can get this to be something a person like myself can actually use. Maybe let's start with one scenario and see if we can come up with a rule of thumb of some kind. Let's say I am only concerned with a wheel draw. I am on 6th and I have A345JK. My single opponent has xx4767 and my 15 seconds are ticking away. I have even had the foresight to jot down the cards under 9 on the board that were folded and they were a 6, 2 and 8. If he doesn't improve, I can beat this guy with a 7, 6 or 2.

This means that someplace in the deck are 7 cards that I can win with. 7 out of 36. Even I know 7 times 5 is 35 and can see I have a 1 in 5 chance. Or do I have a 1 in 6 chance? (I never remember that.) Anyway, looks like 20% to me.

In a standardly played hand, we'd have the antes and bring-in, a call and a completion on 3rd. Then a bet/call on both 4th and 5th. So, what is that? Four BBs? But he's gone ahead and bet and I'm deciding whether to call. So now we've got five. Five to one. Nice how it all works out, because of course we will now count the bets that are coming. At least 2 more unless I can get this turkey to call a raise.

So, this is why we raise with a better draw, right? So we always have the odds to call to the river in a limit game where we can, simply by the nature of the game, know we have the pot odds to call.

I'm trying to think of a common scenario where we'd actually have 15 outs by the time we have 6 cards. If his hand was that bad, I think I wouldn't need to calculate anything to know I am seeing the river.

I swear to you, Rusty, I don't try to be difficult, but what we are trying to do is always create this situation that makes is mathematically correct to keep putting in bets when what is probabilistically reasonable is to fold. So we raise third and reraise with three-wheels. And we hope and hope that those sets of 4 times we lose out of 5 or 5 times we lose out of 6 or whatever aren't all lined up back-to-back for months at a time.

You know, the thing is, it isn't we who will win 20% of the time, it is <u>that hand</u> that will win. What if when that hand wins it is the guy across the table who wins with it and we aren't even in the hand? What if the time we get the hand that would win, we get the bricks on 4th and 5th and can't get enough money in to see 6th and 7th? Or we were just out-of-position on 3rd and couldn't get a raise in and *had* to fold 4th? What if it wins four times in a row in a tournament and we go out before the money and we've used up all our wins for the next month and lose more of that money we shoved in so we could call?

I have to say, I think odds make a lot of sense in holdem and probably in stud hi or Omaha. And I think talented persons like yourself who get it and get it lightning fast can make a lot of money and I admire you, believe me.

But even if I can do it, in Razz, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't do it. It just doesn't make a bit of sense to me.

I'm sorry, thank you for trying. Seriously. You should write this up, anyway, because there are people lurking here who'd really like the info.